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EU countries approve the final Russian gas ban
The European Union gave its final approval to ban Russian gas imports until late 2027. This is nearly four years after Moscow invaded Ukraine in full force. At a meeting held in Brussels, Monday, ministers of EU countries voted to approve the law. Slovakia and Hungary did not vote for it and Bulgaria abstained. Hungary announced that it would be challenging the law before?the European Court of Justice. The ban was intended to be approved with a broader majority, which would allow it to overcome the opposition of Hungary and Slovakia who are heavily dependent on Russian energy imports, and wish to maintain close relations with Moscow. According to the agreement, EU will stop importing Russian liquefied gas by 2026. Pipeline gas imports from Russia by September 30th 2027. This deadline can be pushed back to no later than November 1, 2027 if the country has a hard time filling its storage caverns. Before 2022, Russia supplied over 40% of EU gas. According to the most recent data available from the EU, this share fell to 13% by 2025. Some EU countries still pay Moscow for gas pipelines, liquefied gas and oil, despite their attempts to restrict funding and support Russia's wartime economic. LAW BANS NEW GAS DEALS The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a non-profit, reported that the five largest EU importers spent 1.4 billion Euros ($1.66 billion), mainly on LNG and gas, on Russian energy last month. Hungary was the largest buyer, before France and Belgium. The EU imposed sanctions in 2022 on Russian oil shipped by sea, but did not propose sanctions for gas imports. This would have required unanimous approval of all 27 EU member states. The EU law will prohibit companies from signing any new Russian gas contracts and require those with existing contracts to cancel them in order to comply. Imports under short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2020 will be banned by April 25, 2026 for LNG and June 17, 2026 for pipeline gas. The final deadlines for the termination of long-term contracts must be met. Failure to comply with the law could result in financial penalties up to 3% of global annual turnover. In the next few months, the European Commission will also propose legislation to phase out Russian oil pipelines and to wean countries away from Russian nuclear fuel.
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Saudi Aramco provides initial price guidance for 4-tranche bonds
Saudi Aramco offered indicative pricing on four-tranche, dollar-denominated bond, according to a term sheet viewed by. The deal is likely to raise billions for the world's largest oil exporter. The 'indicative' price for the three year debt sale was set at 100 basis points above U.S. Treasuries. For the five-year, it was 115 basis points higher. And the 10-year and 30-year bonds, 125 and 165 basis point over Treasuries. Aramco's last foray into the debt market was in September when it raised $3 billion through a?sale of sukuk or Islamic bonds. This followed a bond issue in May that raised $5 billion. It had been away from the markets for three long years before it returned in July 2024 to raise $6 billion. Aramco - which has long been a cash cow of the Saudi government - announced last August that it would be cutting costs across the company, and divesting assets, as the crude prices dropped and its debt increased. Aramco is expected to pay out around $85.4 billion in dividends by 2025, which represents a drop of roughly 30% from 2024 due to the decline in payouts tied directly to free cash flow. Aramco is directly owned by the government, which owns 81.5%. The sovereign wealth fund PIF also controls 16%. Aramco had announced its cost-cutting measures and divestment plans ahead of the confirmation by its chief financial officer on an earnings call. This included a planned sale?of gas plants. Aramco also has raised money through other means. It signed a $11 billion lease-and-leaseback agreement with Global Infrastructure Partners, part of BlackRock. The Saudi government will raise $12.35 billion in 2024 by selling a 0.64% stake in Aramco. Citi, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are the active bookrunners. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank and?Bank of China are passive bookrunners. The bond price is expected to be announced on Monday. (Reporting and writing by Amna Mariyam, Yousef Saba; editing by Alexandra Hudson and William Maclean).
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Americans stick together and help each other during blizzards and extreme cold
A huge winter storm paralyzed eastern United States, forcing tens of millions of Americans to hunker down or help their neighbors. The roads from?New York and Massachusetts to Texas and North Carolina were covered in ice, and often more than one foot of snow. Residents in some southern states faced winter conditions that had not been seen for decades. Inch-thick ice coated branches and brought down power lines and trees. Volunteers staffed emergency shelters and canceled flights, while schools were closed. They provided warmth to the homeless and those in need. Ryan DuVal was driving a vintage firetruck through the frozen streets in Tulsa (Oklahoma) looking for people who were in need. "You know, you can just cruise around the streets and offer someone a ride. If they accept, that's great. If they don't, I will at least get them some water and a meal in the truck. It's a way to give back to the community, as everyone should." Winter storm warnings were issued to 118,000,000 people. A total of 118 million people were warned about winter storms. DEEP SNOW, THICK ICY New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced that she has mobilized National Guard troops to New York City and Long Island, as well as the Hudson Valley in order to help with the state's emergency response. Zohran Mamdani, the mayor of New York City, said: "I understand that this will disappoint some students. If you see me, please feel free to throw me a snowball." FlightAware.com, an industry-tracking service, reports that the onslaught snow, ice, and wind has hit air travel particularly hard. Major carriers have been forced to cancel more than 11,000 U.S. flight schedules for Sunday. According to PowerOutage.us, more than 820,000 electricity users were without power at 4 a.m. (0900 GMT) in a large swath of southern states spanning Texas to Virginia. Tennessee was the worst-hit, with nearly a third outages. Donald Trump, calling the storm "historic", approved federal disaster declarations for a dozen state, mostly in mid-South. The weather service stated that while the storm system is expected to drift from the East Coast to the Atlantic Ocean on Monday, it will be followed by more Arctic air, which will prolong the bitter cold and icy conditions for the next few day. Even though the conditions were dangerous and emergency, many people found the snowball fights in Washington DC to be fun. One man was even wearing a spacesuit. Children zoomed down a steep slope beneath the marble dome of the U.S. Congress, using sleds that families brought to Capitol Hill. "It's beautiful. The ride down Capitol Hill is so much fun. This morning's powder was fantastic. It's getting a bit sleety, but we are still having fun!" A man pushed his child down a hill on a plastic purple sled. Reporting by Bureaus: Writing by Peter Graff, Editing by Andrew Cawthorne
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Geopolitically, most Gulf markets are in red
The majority of Gulf stock markets fell in early trading on Monday, due to a mixture of 'geopolitical concerns and policy worries. These range from U.S. and NATO tensions over Greenland as well as uncertainty surrounding tariffs and 'growing questions about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, warned that he would impose a tariff of 100% on Canada if Canada went ahead with its trade agreement with China. He 'has also threatened to impose a 200% tariff on French wines & champagnes, presumably to pressure French President Emmanuel Macron into signing on?to the Board of Peace initiative. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index fell 0.2%. This was due to a -1% drop in Al Rajhi Bank, and a -0.6% decline in the oil giant Saudi Aramco. Crude oil prices, which are a major factor in the Gulf financial markets, were barely changed on Saturday after gaining about 3%. Traders are weighing up the effect of Trump's pressure on Iran to impose more sanctions on vessels transporting its oil. In Abu Dhabi the index dropped 0.7%. Donald Trump calmed the markets briefly last week by rescinding tariff threats and lowering his rhetoric on possible military action against Greenland. Investors are now more concerned about the new sanctions against Iran. Dubai's main stock index fell 1.2%. This was mainly due to a 1.7% decline in Emaar Properties, the blue-chip developer. Salik Company also suffered a 1.7% drop. Qatari benchmark rose by 0.8% and is on track to recover some of the losses it suffered in the previous session.
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Embraer jetmaking CEO eyes higher output after order spree
Embraer, the Brazilian planemaker, aims to return annual deliveries to prepandemic levels (around?100 units) within the next two-years and then continue to grow following a recent "boom" in orders for its regional aircraft. Embraer's plan for the next 24 month calls for an increase in deliveries and production of up to 30% compared to last year when it delivered just 77 commercial jets - barely meeting its forecast of between 77 and 85 units. Arjan Meijer CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation said that the first goal is to return to 100 deliveries. However, with the current demand and sales results, we'll probably need to go above this. Embraer, despite losing to Airbus in a highly charged political contest in Poland, quadrupled its sales of the E2 series, and outsold A220 by three to one, with 131 net order, including purchases from All Nippon Airways, LATAM, and LATAM. Meijer noted that despite geopolitical uncertainties, airlines are catching up on fleet replacements left aside due to the COVID-19 epidemic. "Am I worried about certain global developments?" "Yes, for sure. We keep an eye on the situation but we do not see a decline in demand," he said during a phone interview ahead of the Airline Economics Conference in Dublin this week. TREADING SLOWLY ON NEW PLANE DEVELOPMENT Meijer stated that the supply chain had improved, but it needed to return stability by 2026. The disruption has affected a number of components, including engines and aerostructures. He said that Pratt & Whitney, a U.S. engine manufacturer, had largely overcome the shortages and maintenance bottlenecks. This contrasts with a worsening conflict between Airbus and Pratt & Whitney about shortages of Geared Turbofan Engines that are also used to power part of the A320neo Family. Meijer stated that the E2 variant was less susceptible to durability issues because it is smaller, lighter and entered service much later. This avoided earlier "teething" problems. He said that the number of planes being grounded due to maintenance delays had fallen to a single digit from a high of between 25 and forty. He added that he expects this to be zero by the year's end. Meijer refused to comment on reports in the media that Embraer was set to announce an historic?agreement for planes to be assembled in India. Sources with knowledge told New Delhi last week that Gautam's Adani Aerospace planned to announce an alliance with the Brazilian planemaker. As Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva prepares to visit India in a month, the move is being made. Meijer said that Embraer is not in a hurry to start development of the successor to its jet family and will instead focus on technology. He said, "We're looking at all options." "A new platform (for a manufacturer) is a big decision, and we will have to tread carefully and slowly." (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Tim Hepher)
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French and Benelux stocks - Factors to watch Jan 26
Here are some company news and stories that could impact the markets in France and Benelux or specific stocks. AIRBUS Airbus is close to announcing a deal with AirAsia to sell a total of?100 A220?jets, marking AirAsia's first entry into regional narrowbody aircraft. AIRBUS Airbus's head has warned that it must be prepared to adapt to new geopolitical threats after suffering "significant" financial and logistical damage due to U.S. protectionism and U.S. China trade tensions in the past year. AIR FRANCE KLM Airline KLM (the Dutch arm of Air France KLM) said on Saturday that it will not fly over large areas of the Middle East 'until further notice' due to a 'rise in tensions. BUREAU VERITAS Bureau Veritas has announced that it has acquired SPIN360, an Italian consultancy firm active in sustainability solutions. DANONE Danone announced that it would recall "limited" batches of infant formula in certain markets after a contamination scare led to new guidance from local authorities. Some LVMH shareholders want to know how Bernard Arnault will hand over the leadership of 'the luxury giant he has led for almost 40 year. They say that lack of transparency poses a serious risk to the group. Pan-European market data: European Equities ?speed guide................... FTSE Eurotop 300 index.............................. DJ STOXX index...................................... Top ?10 STOXX sectors........................... Top 10 EUROSTOXX sectors...................... Top 10 Eurotop 300 sectors..................... Top 25 European pct gainers....................... Top ?25 European pct losers........................ Main stock markets: Dow Jones............... Wall Street report ..... Nikkei 225............. Tokyo report............ FTSE 100............... London report........... Xetra DAX............. Frankfurt items......... CAC-40................. Paris items............ World Indices..................................... survey of world bourse outlook......... European Asset Allocation........................ News at a glance: Top News............. Equities.............. Main oil report........... Main currency report..... (Gdansk Newsroom)
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When the US freezes the global LNG market gets a cold. Bousso
A fear of disruptions in production has led to a dramatic rise in the price of natural gas. This spike in prices has been felt on overseas markets and highlights the globalization of U.S. dominated liquefied gas trade. U.S. Natural Gas Futures are up almost 70% in the last week, to $5.35 for a million British Thermal Units (mmBtu). This is their highest price since December 2022. According to LSEG, the cold snap is expected to boost domestic gas demand to 156 billion cubic feet per day this week. This compares to a 'five-year average January' of 137 bcfd. Drillers in areas such as the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico are forced to reduce output because of "freeze-offs," which occur when liquids and water in the gas stream freeze. As temperatures continue to drop, the trend is likely to intensify. LSEG data show that the average gas production in the U.S. is already down to 108.4 bcfd, from a record 109.7 bcfd during December. This was partly due to cold weather. A tighter U.S. gas supply could lead to a reduction in LNG exports as liquefaction facilities receive less feedgas. In recent years, severe cold has curtailed gas and oil production. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, a 10-day cold period in January 2024 caused a 3% decrease in the average monthly dry gas production. Winter Storm Uri, which hit in February of 2021, caused a drop in output by over 20% compared to pre-storm levels. According to?Kpler, LNG feedgas dropped by up to 75% during this storm. This led to a drop of 30% in February LNG exports. During the past Arctic storms, production generally recovered within a few months. Since Uri, however, the U.S. liquefaction capability has almost doubled, making it the top LNG exporter in the world. A disruption today would create a larger shortfall. The global knock-on effect is now a reality. Cold weather in the U.S. has led to higher gas prices for Asia and Europe. Europe is heavily dependent on U.S. Gas after Russia slashed its pipeline flow following its invasion of Ukraine 2022. The U.S. Since 2023, the United States has dominated the LNG industry and is the first country in the world to export more than 100 million metric tonnes per year by 2025. Kpler, a data analytics company, estimates that two-thirds were delivered to Europe. The benchmark European TTF gas price rose over 6% to nearly 40 euros per megawatt-hour, or $13.75 for each mmBtu. This is the highest level since June 2025. Prices have risen 38% this month due to a rapid depletion in regional gas reserves, which is currently at 48% capacity. This is far below the 58% level last year. The International Energy Agency announced on Friday that Europe will import a record amount LNG this year. Most of it is expected to be imported from the U.S. The surge in new LNG supply is expected to maintain prices at a relatively low level for the next few years. According to the IEA, between 2025 and 2030 the new LNG?export capability is expected to increase by about 50% or 300 billion cubic metres (bcm), per year, globally. This growth will be driven primarily by the U.S. INTERCONNECTED MALL The increasingly interconnected LNG markets mean that when sudden changes in demand or supply occur in major producing regions, due to outages, extreme weather or other factors, the global impact is more significant than it was in the past. Climate change will likely make extreme weather events more common. Mashal Jaffery is a partner with Baringa, a gas and LNG commercial consultancy. He said that the global gas market had become more interconnected. Markets such as TTF and (U.S. Henry Hub) are structurally more volatile, and exposed to geopolitical and supply-demand dynamics that originate outside of their region. The global gas market, of course, has adapted. The global gas market has adapted. This allows the market to respond quickly to spikes in demand and smooth out volatility. The gas market, which was once dominated by regional players, is now beginning to resemble the modern, liquid oil markets. You like this column? Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Ryanair increases fare forecast on the back of strong bookings in early 2026
Ryanair upgraded its forecast on average fare growth for its financial period, which ends March 31. It also said that the full-year profit after tax was likely to be about one-third more than last year. Irish Airlines, Europe's biggest airline by passenger numbers, forecasted that average fares would be 1 or 2 percentage point higher than the 7% annual increase it predicted in November, as fares for the first three-month period of 2026 are "trending ahead of the prior year." The airline stated that "while Q4 does not benefit from Easter, the fares are on the rise and will likely exceed the +7% growth originally guided by 1% to 2%." The airline has "cautiously guided" its pre-exceptional profit after tax in a range between 2.13 billion to 2.23 billion euros ($2.53 to $2.65 billion) compared to last year's 1.61 billion euro. Ryanair is facing a "special charge" related to a fine of 256 million euros imposed by the Italian Competition Authority in December. However, it believes that it will be reversed on appeal.
As sanctions hinder trade, Russia's fuel exports to Asia will slow down in the early 2026.
According to industry and shipping sources, Russian fuel oil exports into Asia have slowed down in the first half of 2026 due to increased scrutiny due to tighter Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks against Russian refining plants reduced output.
After the capture of Nicolas Maduro by the United States, the slowdown of Russian exports and the decline in Venezuelan shipments into China could lead to a tightening of Asia's fuel oil supply, which is used for refinery feedstocks and bunker fuels. This would support the price.
Kpler ship tracking data showed that Russian fuel oil exports have reached 1.2 million tons (about 246,000 bbls/day) in January, and they are expected to continue to decline for a third consecutive month. The drop is due to some cargoes being diverted into storage facilities prior to re-exporting. In January 2025, 2.5 million tons were exported.
Since October, the output of?Russian refinery products has decreased as a result of several refineries being closed for repairs after Ukrainian drone attacks. The winter storms in December and early January also affected?cargo loads.
LONGER ROUTES SANCTIONS
Emril Jamil is a senior analyst with LSEG. He said: "Buyers don't want to take risks because of the sanctions and penalties."
Fuel oil traders said that it is now more difficult to move cargoes out of the sanctioned refining plants due to multiple layers, including ship-to-ship transfer.
Market sources reported that some cargoes were being held in Egypt at the Port Said anchorage awaiting buyers. Sources declined to name them as they were not authorized to speak with media.
Trade estimates show that about 360,000 tons of cargo loaded in November and December is shipped to Asia by longer routes around Africa. Around 300,000 of these tons have no final destination.
KARIMUN RESUMES RUSSIAN FUEL OPOL IMPORTS
According to Kpler and other market sources, Indonesia's Karimun oil terminal resumed imports of Russian fuel in December and early January after a nearly six-month hiatus. The terminal received more than 300,000.
Oil Terminal Karimun operator did not respond immediately to a comment request. In recent years, the terminal has become a major transshipment hub for Russian oil products.
Market sources say that Asia is likely to remain the top destination of?Russian fuel this year, unless Western sanctions lift. The sources say that Southeast Asia, China and the Middle East are the main outlets, with some cargoes continuing to flow into the Middle East.
Kpler data shows that fuel oil exports to Singapore from Russia totaled 491,000 tonnes so far in January, a decrease from December.
Other cargoes continue to arrive in China ports, including in Shandong where independent refineries are importing fuel oil as a substitute feedstock for crude oil.
(source: Reuters)