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Southeast Asia's intense gas demand outlook may dissatisfy: Maguire

Southeast Asia is quick becoming an essential development market for natural gas, and on paper has an aggressive advancement pipeline for gasfired power stations that if completed would guarantee the region would be a. significant gas consumer for years.

Southeast Asia is also among the fastest growing. locations for shipments of liquefied gas (LNG). Overall. LNG volumes to the area have more than doubled considering that 2019,. outpacing all other crucial markets, according to Kpler.

But gas bulls must be wary about how much of Southeast. Asia's proposed gas power advancement pipeline stays stuck in. the planned phase, as only around 6% of the area's revealed. power tasks are presently under building.

The rest are still only planned on paper, therefore stay. at threat of potential delay or cancellation if power sector or. government concerns change to alternate power sources.

And the danger of deep cuts to gas-fired capacity plans is. high, as clean energy capacity development has grown at 3. times the speed of gas-fired capability considering that 2018, and has. just recently exceeded local gas capacity for the very first time.

Steadily increasing clean generation capability is in turn requiring. energy system organizers to evaluate the generation requirements. from remaining system parts, placing possibly expensive and. long-duration advancement projects in jeopardy.

BIG PLANS

Near 100,000 megawatts of gas-fired power generation is. either already under building or has actually been revealed across. Southeast Asia, according to Global Energy Screen (GEM).

That total is the third-highest for all areas behind. Eastern Asia, which includes China, and Western Asia, which. includes the Middle East, GEM data shows.

Of that prepared total, only around 12,600 MW is currently. under building and construction, while almost 87,000 MW is categorized as. being in pre-development.

The region has around 109,000 GW of gas-fired capability in. operation, which positions Southeast Asia seventh out of 15 regions. tracked by GEM in terms of operational gas capacity.

But if all of Southeast Asia's pre-development gas strategies. pertained to fulfillment, the region would leap to fourth on the global. gas power capacity table, and for that reason emerge as a considerable. player in worldwide gas markets.

CAPABILITY FLUX

The scale and pace of any area's power sector capacity. advancement is constantly in flux and identified by a slew of. aspects including the economics of each job, the level of. federal government aid for developers and the cost of debt financing.

All of those factors can change over the course of a. prepared advancement project and indicate that information trackers such as. GEM regularly revise projections.

Gas-fired capability requirements are likewise determined by the. power generation mix within each country, which is also changing. at a much faster speed than many large-scale energy developers can. stay up to date with.

For some designers of fossil-fuel fired plants, the. speedier emergence of tidy energy tasks that can generate an. equal or greater amount of low-emissions power could result in. their proposed tasks ending up being surplus to requirements before. they can even be developed.

CLEAN GROWTH

For Southeast Asia's gas power plant developers, the quick. build-out of tidy electrical energy generation capability over the past. five years is undermining the demand case for significant rises to. generation capability from nonrenewable fuel sources.

In between 2018 and 2023, gas-fired generation capacity within. the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member. countries increased by 16% to approximately 103 GW, according to. energy think tank Cinder.

That growth pushed local gas capacity to a record, but. faster capability growth by other power sources resulted in a fall in. gas' share of local electricity capability to a record. low 31% in 2023, from 37% in 2018.

Over the same duration, clean energy generation capacity. throughout ASEAN increased by 63% to 105 GW.

That suggests local clean capacity was currently higher than. regional gas capability in 2015, and keeps growing as more solar. and wind energy jobs come online at a much faster clip than. new gas-fired capacity.

COUNTRY RISK

The development rate of tidy generation capacity has actually been. particularly fast within Vietnam, which is likewise the country with. the highest proportion of prepared gas-fired capacity in. Southeast Asia.

Of all the announced gas-fired capability plans in Southeast. Asia, roughly half is slated to be built in Vietnam, GEM information. shows.

But Vietnam is likewise a leading tidy energy capability home builder,. which is altering the extent of the nation's gas-fired requirements.

From 2018 to 2023, Vietnam's tidy electrical energy generation. capacity jumped by 146% to 46 GW.

Over the very same duration, Vietnam's gas-fired capability remained. flat at 8.15 GW and resulted in gas capacity being up to just 10%. of overall electrical energy generation capacity in the country.

That gas share compares to 18% in 2018 and 38% in 2010, and. suggests that gas-fired power has currently been steadily. ejected of Vietnam's generation mix while renewables and. hydropower have actually taken on greater systemic value.

Vietnam's power producers have also broadened coal-fired. capacity to tape highs recently in order to keep. general energy expenses in check and boost electricity materials.

The roughly 27 GW of coal-fired capability in place in Vietnam. means that nonrenewable fuel sources currently represent an approximately 43% share. of total generation capability in the nation.

Any further expansions in fossil-fired capacity - even from. cleaner-burning natural gas - would be at chances with the. country's stated target of net no power emissions by 2050.

In addition, a recent price cap set by the federal government on. power generated from LNG imports is likewise anticipated to slow. financial investments in LNG import terminals in the country, which remain. exposed to swings in international LNG prices no matter. domestic power price limits.

That leaves the nation's aspiring gas-fired power. designers at risk of dissatisfaction.

Some outdated coal-fired plants can be replaced by gas. plants, which would assist a few of the proposed tasks cross the. goal.

But at this phase the full completion of all prepared. gas-fired tasks in Vietnam appears not likely, and suggests that. job designers may need to cut back on gas capacity. building price quotes for the entire region. << The viewpoints expressed here are those of the author, a. columnist .>

(source: Reuters)