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LME Zinc stocks indicate tight market but physical supplies are plentiful

The London Metal Exchange has reported a decline in zinc inventories registered in their warehouses in recent months. This suggests a tightening market for the metal that is used to galvanize steel. However, industry sources claim there are plenty of supplies available on the physical market.

Zinc stocks at LME warehouses are now down 75% since mid-April, to 47,825 tons. This is the lowest level of zinc stock in LME storages since May 2023. The cancellation of warrants that represent metals earmarked for shipment indicates another 16,450 tonnes are expected to leave LME warehouses.

The price of zinc is likely to continue to be affected by headwinds over the next year, according StoneX analyst Natalie Scott Gray. She cited a weaker Chinese demand as well as an improved supply. However, she noted that the low stock environment would help support the price.

Cash contract premiums have been impacted by concerns about LME Zinc supplies. . This week, the premium reached a record high of $41.33 per ton.

The backwardation of the zinc maturity curve suggests that the market is expecting LME supply to be tight for a while.

The latest quarterly survey shows that analysts are expecting a small surplus in zinc this year of 80,000 tonnes and 201.500 tons next. The global zinc demand is estimated to be around 14 million tons per year.

Zinc inventories are found in warehouses monitored and controlled by the Shanghai Futures Exchange Since late June, the number of tons has more than doubled, reaching 99,315 tonnes, indicating a weakening demand in China, the world's largest consumer.

Tom Price, analyst at Liberum, said that the most important factor affecting zinc prices and demand is the decline in global steel production activity in particular in China.

We also remind investors that there is greater value in tracking changes in exchange inventory than in tracking the moods of the galvanisers in the zinc industry.

According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production in July was 150.1 millions tons, down 1.3% on the previous year. Chinese output fell 4%, at 79.7million tons. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman.)

(source: Reuters)