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The third quarter of 2018 was a record-breaking period for global M&A.

The third quarter of recent history was both one of best and worst for dealmakers around the world. According to Dealogic, megadeals generated a staggering $1.26 trillion worth of global mergers and purchases during the third-quarter - an increase of 40% over the previous year. This was the second best third-quarter ever by deal value. Data show that only 8,912 transactions were completed, a drop of 16% compared to last year. This is the lowest third-quarter deal volume for 20 years. Dealmakers are in a strange situation, as they had high hopes for 2025 following the election of Donald Trump. Trump's punishing Tariffs, which were unveiled on Liberation Day, and a continuing antitrust crackdown against Big Tech sent the markets soaring in the second quarter. This led many corporations to postpone M&A plans and IPOs while trade negotiations took place. In recent months, a combination of pent-up demand from companies and new stock market highs have sparked a flurry big deals and IPOs that have saved an otherwise dormant year for the industry. Data show that although fewer deals are being signed, the average deal size increased to $141.4m in the third quarter. This is up from $85.5m at the same time last. Liberation Day occurred right at the start of what was going to be an exciting second quarter. In an interview, Naveen Nataraj said that people, "understandably," took their foot off of the pedal as they tried to grasp the implications. As the year progressed, people have become more confident that the tariff landscape will be a place they can navigate. The IPO market was revived earlier this month by several big initial public offerings, such as StubHub’s $800m IPO, and the $1.37bn trading debut of fintech company Klarna, which offers buy-now, pay-later. Approximately 987 companies around the world have raised $115 billion through their IPOs this year. This is down by 24% and 9% from the same time last year.

Some IPOs in Europe are being done again. Martin Thorneycroft is the global co-head for equity capital markets at Morgan Stanley. He said that the relatively low IPO issuance since September of last year was primarily because we had not seen large-cap, high-quality companies come to market. But now, we are beginning to see this. CHINA DELISTING THREATENS IN THE US IPOs in Asia and second listings were especially hot. This was particularly true on the Hong Stock Exchange, where on Tuesday the Chinese company Zijin Gold International raised $3.2 billion in its debut. Data from Dealogic shows that companies have raised $23 billion so far in Hong Kong this year. This is more than three-times the amount of money raised in the same period of 2024.

Dealmakers report that the pipeline of IPOs remains robust. However, a glitch could arise for new listings as U.S. Congress is at loggerheads with the Trump Administration over federal budget negotiations, and the United States faces a possible government shutdown on Wednesday. This would lead to a halt in IPOs, as federal regulators who are responsible for approving new listings will be furloughed. David Bauer, JPMorgan's co-head of equity markets for the Americas, said that "the IPO backlog is strong and we expect a steady stream of IPOs to come to market until year-end." Investors have profited from IPOs so far this year, but as the market becomes more volatile it is important to price equity accordingly. M&A deals and IPOs were dominated by anything related to AI, be it software, infrastructure, or chips. Dealogic didn't include the $100 billion investment by Nvidia in OpenAI in its league tables. However, other deals, such as CyberArk Software’s $24.5 billion purchase of Palo Alto Networks in July, were included. This Israeli software company uses AI for network and cloud security. Camila Panama, an M&A partner at Mayer Brown, said that almost every client - regardless of their industry - is considering AI as part of their M&A strategies. She said that there is a "robust pipeline" for Q4, and they are expecting a good quarter. They expect to see a lot of activity in the financial sector, insurance deals, as well inbound/outbound Japan deals. M&A GOING FOR SCALE Cross-border deals are also on the rise, with a 44% increase to $931 billion. This is the largest jump since 2021, and represents a new peak.

Dealmakers claim that companies are aiming for scale. Dealmakers say that smaller deals below $500 million aren't resonating with investors anymore. Data show that 49 deals have been done over $10 billion this year, up 75% compared to the first nine month of last year. The $55 billion leveraged purchase of Electronic Arts on Monday was the largest deal in the third quarter. But it wasn't the only one. According to Dealogic, the largest deal of the quarter was Union Pacific's $88.18 Billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern in July.

(source: Reuters)