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Bousso: Trump's "Donroe doctrine" could cost US oil companies their jobs if it targets China.

Donald Trump has announced his intention to import Venezuelan oil that was previously sanctioned into the U.S. This will disrupt the global energy game plan and highlight the seriousness of Trump's administration's ambitions to dominate the Western Hemisphere. This "Donroe doctrine" - Trump's rebranding a 19th century doctrine that asserted Washington’s zone of influence throughout the Americas - may ultimately target China. But?U.S. Oil companies may suffer unintended consequences. Trump said on Tuesday that Caracas had agreed to export $2 billion of Venezuelan crude oil to the U.S. It was only days after the U.S. ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and demanded that the Latin American nation open its energy sector to American oil firms - or face further military intervention. Trump announced in a post on social media that Venezuela would "turn over" 30 to 50 million barrels sanctioned oil. Although the timeframe of the deal has not been revealed, it is likely that shipments will begin soon.

Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary of the United States, said that U.S.

Needs to Control

Venezuelan oil revenues and sales will be used to fuel the desired changes in Venezuela.

Trump's plan is primarily aimed at China, who accounted for around 400,000 barrels of oil per day in Venezuela's exports last. According to Kpler, this is more than 50% of Venezuela's total oil exports and two-thirds according to ROI calculations. The U.S. could seize the equivalent of four months' worth of Chinese oil supplies, and about 55 days of Venezuelan production, which is currently around 900,000 barrels per day. The Trump administration also reportedly instructed Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rod to cut economic ties with China. PetroSinovensa is the largest Chinese oil asset in Venezuela. It's a joint venture between Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA, and China National Petroleum Corp. The JV is located in the Orinoco Belt, and produces around 65,000 barrels per day.

The Trump administration's actions against Venezuela are part of a broader geopolitical plan.

This is more than just rerouting barrels that were originally destined for China's refiners. Bob McNally is a former White House official and president of Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy. He says that it'signals President Trump’s intention to push China and Russia out of their strongholds in Venezuela.

"DONROE DOCUMENT" IN ACTION

The White House released its National Security Strategy late last year. The document called for a cementing of U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere, by pushing out rivals and restoring American control on energy and supply chains.

The "Donroe Doctrine", as it is known, is a reference to the former U.S. president James Monroe's 1823 declaration that the Americas would no longer be open for future colonisation by European countries. Trump's threats to seize Greenland this week, an Arctic island that is a part of Denmark and has its own self-governing government, also align with these ambitions.

Investors may want to take the White House national security strategy, and its words, more seriously.

He told reporters that the "dominance of America in the Western Hemisphere" would never be questioned again.

BLOWBACK FROM BEIJING

U.S. oil companies are in a tough position because of the American actions in Venezuela. Exxon Mobil and Chevron, for example, could be facing legal issues if they enter into an agreement with Venezuela's government to invest in assets that were previously owned by Chinese or Russian firms.

Trump's unilateral action could also lead to China's retaliation, which would put the assets of U.S. firms abroad at risk. U.S. major oil companies have a number of joint ventures with Chinese firms. Exxon, for example, wholly owns and runs a massive petrochemical facility in southern China that began operations last year after a $10 billion investment.

Chevron also owns stakes?in joint ventures upstream in China, as well as in downstream operations for fuels and oils.

Both companies have also signed large contracts for the supply of liquefied gas to Chinese customers.

Of course, the risk extends beyond China. If American companies are increasingly seen as state-owned, host governments may be more reluctant to work with them. Although the U.S. President may not see any downside to ignoring international conventions and rules, American companies might.

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(source: Reuters)