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Vladimirov: ROI-Venezuela is the first step in a geoeconomic reset of LatAm

The removal of Nicolas Maduro from Venezuela could be the start of a larger U.S. effort to realign Latin America in a geoeconomical sense, thus limiting Russia's and China's ability to use the Western Hemisphere as a pressure-point on global commodity markets. Central America may be the next domino in the fall.

This region has a lot of shipping lanes, and is close to checkpoints. It's a great place for both licit and illegal commerce. The Panama Canal handles approximately 40% of U.S. containers and 5% of world trade. Other transit routes include the Caribbean Sea and ports on the west coast in Mexico, Guatemala and Costa Rica, used to ship goods to Asia. Russia has already benefited from this geography by a growing "shadow Fleet" of aging vessels that are operated outside the Western Insurance System. These vessels help move crude and refined products that are subject to Western sanctions through the Caribbean corridor, the Panama Canal, and the Gulf of Mexico. This undermines U.S., European, and other efforts to stop Moscow's financing of the war in Ukraine. The region is an important node in the Kremlin’s global financial network. Some of the largest Russian firms use offshore financial hubs to conduct international business. According to the Center for the Study of Democracies, offshore shell companies in the Caribbean control assets worth close to $70 billion. China is still the dominant economic force in Latin America. China's Belt and Road investment, technology transfer and financing dwarf Russia and, increasingly, the U.S. 's outlays. China has increased its engagement in the region through tariff reductions and industry agreements, positioning it as a major provider of technology and industrial inputs. It also provides consumer goods, transportation equipment and consumer products.

Moscow and Beijing used political ties, long-term contracts and strategic investments to gain a foothold in the Americas. According to Inter-American Dialogue, Chinese development loans to Latin America will reach more than $120 Billion by the end 2023.

Even though U.S. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is estimated to be worth $1.4 trillion by the year 2023 in Latin America, dwarfs the combined $610 billion of Russian and Chinese capital in the area,

The strategic bilateral agreements that Latin American countries signed with Moscow or Beijing have severely limited the opportunities for U.S. companies and European firms to enter markets which will determine the future trajectory of the Western Hemisphere. The "Donroe Doctrine", the Trump administration's plan to?cement its dominance in this region, is a move that aims to change this.

Venezuela, with its largest oil reserves in the world and additional support from Moscow, has supported regimes from Cuba to Nicaragua for decades.

Venezuela and Russia, for example, cover over 60% of Cuba's petroleum consumption at very low costs. Energy supply has become a geopolitical tool because of this dependence. Cuba already suffers from chronic energy shortages. If the U.S. were to block Venezuelan and Russian supply, it could lead to economic chaos.

The immediate impact on commodities markets would be indirect. A tighter scrutiny of Caribbean shipping and insurance, as well as reflagging (or changing the country of registration of a vessel) is likely to increase costs for traders. It may also restrict the flow of sanctioned oil.

In this scenario it is likely that the U.S. Gulf Coast will be more reliant on its refineries in order to replace lost supplies from Russia and Venezuela.

If the U.S. Southern Command suppresses also the shadow fleet along South America's Atlantic coast, it will further push Russia back, who recently became Brazil's largest supplier of petroleum products. This could allow U.S. refiners a chance to reclaim the traditional role of swing supplier in the region.

The reintegration into the global oil markets under U.S. management would also directly affect the market share of oil exporters like Mexico, Ecuador, and Colombia. The collapse of the Venezuelan oil industry has benefited all three countries, increasing their regional sales over the last decade.

BROADER GEOECONOMIC REALIGNMENT

The U.S.'s move to reclaim the economic sphere of its influence in the Western Hemisphere could open up the door for more American investment, especially in strategic areas such as nuclear power, port and road infrastructure and the development of critical raw materials in the region.

These sectors are currently dominated, amongst others, by Chinese and Russian firms in Bolivia, Brazil Argentina, Venezuela Peru and Chile.

The U.S. strategy is not without risks. U.S. coercive action could disrupt regional trade and investments, strain relationships with Latin American governments, and in some cases accelerate the shift towards China.

The Trump administration's intervention in Venezuela could help reverse the growing geoeconomic alignment of the region with Russia and China. But only if the coercion matched by credible economic incentives to encourage countries to change course. This month's events will have far-reaching implications that go beyond the oil markets.

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(source: Reuters)