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Russia aims to increase exports of Urals grade to China
Urals crude differentials have remained unchanged in a'muted market,' while traders are looking at a broader discounting to Brent grade, as Russia diverts its exports from India to China, with higher freight costs and wider discounts. Some market participants expect that the discount for Urals will increase by up to $5 per barrel, from the current $10-12 on a delivered-to port basis. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban asked for a fact-finding mission to assess damage caused to the Druzhba Oil Pipeline in Ukraine on Wednesday. He suggested that this could unblock EU funding to Ukraine. MOL Group, a refiner, said that in an email statement sent on Thursday, the Croatian pipeline operator JANAF should allow transit to Hungary and Slovakia of Russian oil transported by sea. It added?that these imports are not subject to EU sanctions. PLATTS WINDOW * There were no bids or offers made on Thursday for Urals BTC, CPC Blend, and Azeri BTC, traders said. * The Caspian Pipeline Consortium which transports oil from Kazakhstan to a Russian terminal on the 'Black Sea,' increased its exports by 12% in 2012, reaching 70.52 millions metric tons. * The United States has slowed down the sale of international assets owned by the Russian oil giant Lukoil to exert pressure on Russia during the peace talks in Ukraine. (Reporting and Editing by Shailesh Kumar)
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What caused the cocoa crisis in Ivory Coast, Ghana and Nigeria?
Ivory Coast, Ghana and the other half of the cocoa-producing countries have had difficulty selling beans and paying farmers due to the abundance of cocoa harvested globally and the lower cocoa price. What are the reasons why the two countries performed worse than their rival producers? How did we get here? Cocoa is not traded freely in Ivory Coast or Ghana. The government-appointed 'cocoa regulators' of the two countries sell 80% of the 'beans? to global traders one year in advance. Based on these sales, they set a price fixed for the farmers when the season begins in October. Farmers sell their beans at this price to local collectors, who then sell them to licensed buyers. Licensed buyers sell the cocoa either directly to global traders, or to local traders that sell to global traders. Cocoa regulators in most countries adjust the farmer's price to reflect the lower-quality mid-crop, which is usually between April and September. Ivory Coast's main crop price was set at $5,000 per metric ton in October last year, while Ghana set the price at $5,300. The price of cocoa futures has fallen to $3,100 per tonne, but they have lost more than half their value in just one year. The price drop had an immediate impact on global cocoa traders. They would suffer?severe losses' if they bought Ivorian or Ghanaian beans, and then sold them to futures market prices. They stopped buying them. Sources in the industry said that Ivorians farmers were also not paid for their beans as of last month. The Ivory Coast government noted that cocoa stocks were piled high. What has Ivory Coast, GHANA done so far in response? Ivory Coast launched a program late last month in order to get cash?to farmers. The government bought 100,000 tons of main crop cocoa from farmers for a price of half a million dollars. The cocoa regulator in Ghana cut the fixed farmer prices by almost a third on 12 February, to about $3,580 a ton, after estimating that the country held cocoa stocks of around 50,000 tons. Sources have confirmed that Ivory Coast plans to reduce its fixed farmer price, starting March 1, by about a quarter in order to encourage sales to international traders. The government announced earlier this week that it would announce a "new farmer price" by the end February, one month earlier than normal. Why did the price of cocoa in the world plummet? World cocoa prices, which nearly tripled to record levels by 2024, have lost around three-quarters of their value since then. This was partly due to a drop in demand as high prices forced chocolate makers to reduce bar size, add non-cocoa ingredients, like wafers and nuts, or substitute cocoa butter for alternative fats. According to traders, the favourable weather conditions have led to larger and healthier crops. The global market is expected to record an excess of between 300,000 and 400,000 tons in this season. Ivory Coast, Ghana and other countries with large surpluses of beans, do not have the means to store them in warehouses. The price of cocoa in futures markets has a lag of about a year before it is reflected in the chocolate sold at retail. COCOA IS IMPORTANT TO THE IVORY COAST AND GHANA ECONOMIES. Cocoa exports account for almost 40% of Ivory Coast revenue and 15% of Ghana's. This makes cocoa one of the largest sources of foreign currency earnings?for both West African countries. Ghana, like Ivory Coast is struggling to recover from the deepest economic crisis it has experienced in a decade after defaulting on and restructuring a large portion of its $30 billion debt. Ghana's cocoa regulator has found it more difficult and expensive to obtain financing for its cocoa purchases. Nearly two million cocoa farmers in Ghana and Ivory Coast, and their dependents - most of whom are below the poverty level - rely on chocolate as a livelihood. (Reporting and editing by Barbara Lewis; May Angel)
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HOLD Gupta, a businessman, was denied permission to appeal the Trafigura nickel fraud case.
The 'London High Court' refused to allow Indian businessman Prateek gupta, who was found guilty of defrauding commodities trader Trafigura by using fake nickel cargoes. The Geneva-based 'Trafigura' alleged that Gupta had been the mastermind behind a fraudulent "Ponzi Scheme" where he and his firms agreed to deliver high-quality nickel 99.8% but delivered low-value materials or even worthless ones instead. Gupta admitted he didn't deliver high-grade Nickel cargoes, but said Trafigura?staff designed the scheme. Former Trafigura head nickel trader Sokratis Oikonomou denies this. Last month, Judge Pushpinder Saini found that Gupta's companies and Gupta had induced Trafigura to sign contracts by making "false and fraudulent representations". The judge said that Trafigura's ex-employees, including Oikonomou were "wholly?innocent?of any wrongdoing". Gupta asked for permission to appeal this ruling, and was?refused. However, he may still apply directly to the Court of Appeal. Nathan Pillow, Trafigura's attorney, told the hearing on Thursday that Trafigura owed an additional $140 million for interest, in addition to its $500 million principal. Trafigura's spokesperson stated that Gupta was owed $700 million, plus legal fees. The spokesperson stated that Trafigura will take action to enforce the judgment and recover the amounts awarded. Gupta’s lawyers didn’t immediately respond to an?request for comments. Gupta has agreed to limit his monthly living expenses to 5,000 pounds ($6,763.50), from 20,000 pounds. Trafigura received its first complaints in November 2022 about the cargoes that it had sold. The trial concluded in December. The discovery led Trafigura to carry out additional inspections, charge $590 million and then sue Gupta's companies in February 2023 over what they called "systematic fraud". Reporting by Sam Tobin Editing Emelia Sithole Matarise and David Goodman
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German court issues injunction against AfD party and suspends 'extremist classification' by spy agency
The BfV's domestic intelligence service cannot refer to the Alternative for Germany as a right-wing extreme for the time being, the Cologne administrative court ruled on Thursday. This is a major boost for the party ahead of five state elections in this year. The court granted the AfD's injunction to stop the?BfV from referring to the AfD as a right-wing extremist by 2025. The injunction will remain valid until a court ruling on the case is made, but when this may be is not clear. The court said in a press release that "following examination under the summary procedure it cannot be established at this time that the applicant as a person is dominated by these positions." In May, the spy agency classified the far right AfD as an "extremist", which allowed it to increase monitoring of the biggest opposition party in the country. The decision to label the AfD extremists in May triggered a flurry of reactions along the fault lines of German politics. Some lawmakers called for the AfD to be banned, while the party claimed it was an attack on democracy. The decision was also strongly criticized by the?administration of U.S. president Donald Trump, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio urging German authorities to reverse it. (Writing and Editing by Ludwig Burger, Madeline Chambers, and Friederike Heine)
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Ford recalls 4.3 million US cars over software issue
Ford Motor Company announced Thursday that it will recall 4.3 million SUVs, pickup trucks and pickups in the U.S. because of a software error which could cause exterior lights and trailer brakes to stop working. The recall includes the F-150 from 2021 to 2026, the F-250 SD from 2022 to 2026, the Lincoln Navigator, Expedition and Maverick, as well as some Ranger, E-Transit, and Lincoln Navigator vehicles. The Integrated Trailer module may not be able to communicate with the vehicle when towing a?trailer. This could lead either to a loss in brake or turn signal 'lights,' or a complete loss of brake functionality. Ford will 'fix the issue with an over-the -air software update. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration stated that trailer lights and brakes not working can decrease the driver's control of the trailer, increasing risk?of a collision. Ford has identified 407 incidents which may be linked to the recall issue. Ford and NHTSA discussed this issue during a meeting held in December. Ford reopened their investigation in January, taking into consideration the views of NHTSA. Ford has said that it is unaware of any accidents related to the recall issue. The company stated that 'the problem may cause the trailer to stop contacting the vehicle when it is started. David Shepardson reported the story. (Editing by Louise Heavens, Mark Potter and Mark Potter).
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Sweden's Einride raises 113 million dollars ahead of US listing
Swedish autonomous trucking firm Einride announced on Thursday that it has raised $113 million in private equity investment ahead of its merger with a blank check company and public listing of shares in the U.S. scheduled for the first half. The funding 'was committed by both new and existing investors, including EQT Ventures. It will 'help support the technology roadmap of the company and its global expansion across North -America, Europe, and the Middle -East. Einride stated that the?listing? now values the company as a $1.8 billion equity value, compared to the $1.8 billion valuation when the announcement was made?in November of last year. Investors are enthused by the autonomous technology, as firms try to capitalize on the strong demand for automated cargo shipping. Investors have committed a total of $213 million to the company's public listing.
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Russia accuses Ukraine that it is threatening European energy safety with the Hungary/Slovakia Oil Stoppage
The Russian Foreign Ministry's Maria Zakharova accused Ukraine of a threat to Europe's energy security by stopping the flow of?Russian crude oil through the Druzhba pipeline into Hungary and Slovakia. Ukraine says that the pipeline has still not been repaired after being damaged by Russian air strikes in late January. On Monday, in another incident, Kyiv's drones hit a Russian pumping station servicing the same.pipeline. Hungary blocked this week new EU sanctions against?Russia, and an EU loan for Ukraine in response to the oil shutdown. Zakharova said that the inaction of Brussels is surprising because the blockage by Ukraine of the Druzhba Oil Pipeline threatens energy security for Hungary, Slovakia, and Europe as a whole. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that Brussels had requested?Ukraine speed up repairs on the damaged pipeline. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Ukrainian President, said the?day after that it could not be repaired quickly. (Reporting and writing by Dmitry Antonov; Editing by Andrew Osborn).
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Sweden's grid operator will invest $7.7 billion in 2027-2029
Svenska Kraftnat said on Thursday that it would invest 70 billion Swedish crowns (about $7.74 billion) between 2027 and 2029. This is an increase of 14 billion crowns over its previous operational plan. Key Details * The majority if the investments will be used to increase transmission capacity on the main grid, and modernise parts that have reached their 'technical life expectancy'. * The largest investments will be made in Sweden's southernmost electric area (SE4) as well as in the Stockholm area and along the coast of Norrland. * NordSyd initiative will also see investments. This initiative will increase transmission capacity by 800 MW between the bidding areas of SE2 and SE3 until 2029. It is expected to help improve the flow of electricity between the northern and southern Sweden.
Traders say that Russia is looking to increase Urals oil exports from China in response to Indian cuts.
Russia will increase its Urals crude exports to China in March to compensate for the reduction of purchases by India, which is a major buyer following a recent trade agreement with the U.S.
India is expected to drastically reduce its intake of Urals cargoes next month. China is the top crude importer in the world, and suppliers are looking to China to fill the gap as Turkey, the third largest Urals buyer, lacks the processing capacity to handle more Russian barrels.
Russia's main options on the current market are to either increase discounts or reduce production. One trader stated that both would put pressure on the Kremlin's budget revenues.
Participants in the market expect Urals prices in China to drop by as much as $2-$5 a barrel, compared to the current $10-$12 per barrel. Some participants are expecting even deeper discounts in the months to come.
A trading source said that although there haven't yet been any new Urals deals in China, traders are preparing to begin negotiations at a price of?around minus 15 per barrel? on a DES basis (delivered from ship).
In February, Russian oil imports could increase for the third month in a row. They may even reach a record of 2.1 million barrels a day as independent refiners make use of reduced cargoes after India cut back on its purchases.
Some market participants warn, however, that the Chinese demand for Russian crude oil is nearing its peak.
April could be a crucial month for shipments. The Chinese teapots (small refiners), will have purchased supplies. Demand may fall, and Russia could be forced to reduce production. The situation is fluid, according to a source from a major Western oil firm.
Sources added that further?discounting could help maintain high import volumes in China for the upcoming months.
India's Urals imports are expected to drop sharply in March. The volume is projected to drop to 400,000 bpd by April. Market sources claim that Nayara refinery is likely to be the last remaining importer.
India's imports from Russia of oil dropped 12% between December and January, with the trend expected to continue in February. Reporting by. Mark Potter (Editing by Mark Potter).
(source: Reuters)