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US oil exports slow down as global production and demand remain tepid

After years of rapid growth, U.S. crude exports should plateau by 2024. Domestic production is expected to grow the least since the Pandemic and at a time where global oil demand is still lagging.

According to U.S. Government data, the average amount of crude oil exported from U.S. Ports has been around 4.2 million barrels a day. This was a 3.5% increase from the previous year, the lowest percentage since 2015 when the U.S. began exporting domestic crude oil following a 40-year ban.

Exports increased by 13.5% in the last year. The exports have increased every year, except for 2021 when COVID-19 lowered global oil demand.

Matt Smith, analyst with energy data firm Kpler, said that U.S. crude oil exports have plateaued due to a combination between slowing growth in supply and easing demand. This is especially true for Asia this year.

The U.S. production of oil is expected to increase by just 2.3% in this year as producers continue to focus on shareholder returns, and limit spending on new production.

New offshore projects, like Chevron's Anchor Platform in the Gulf of Mexico, are expected to increase production this year. Exports will not be impacted by the slow ramp-up of production over the next few years.

The global demand for oil has decreased this year. This is especially true in China where an extended property slump has increased economic concerns. Kpler data shows that the average U.S. crude oil exports to China have fallen by over a third this year.

China has increased its crude imports directly from Canada's west coast, thanks to the recent expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline. Prior to this, Canadian crude oil was shipped to the U.S. Gulf Coast before being exported to China.

U.S. exports to Singapore fell as well, but those to India and South Korea rose.

Rohit Rathod is a market analyst with energy research firm Vortexa.

The average daily U.S. oil exports to Europe have also fallen by about 1% compared to last year, as European buyers purchased cheaper regional and West African crude.

Nigeria's Dangote Refinery, which started up in early 2014, has bought barrels of WTI Midland Crude.

Smith of Kpler said that "Dangote stands out when it comes to the new refinery capacity because it runs on a lot of light sweet crude from Nigeria and the U.S."

Smith said that "new refining capacities are being built primarily in OPEC+ or Asia. These two regions have a higher prevalence of light and medium sour crudes."

U.S. Export volumes could see a surge in the coming weeks due to production restrictions in Libya and other countries, as well as U.S. refiners starting maintenance and pushing more barrels into the water.

Trade sources reported that refiners who usually import Libyan Sharara could replace it with U.S. WTI Midland, among other grades. This is after Libya's National Oil Corporation declared a force majeure at the Sharara oil field on August 7.

(source: Reuters)