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The once-acquisitive Chinese Oil giant is looking to revive global deals

CNPC is Asia's largest oil producer and it has reviewed its global strategy to revitalize dealmaking. It will focus on gas liquefaction, deepsea drilling, as well as improving its track record in producing more from aging fields.

China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) & its listed subsidiary PetroChina are facing stagnant oil production at home, a lack of new projects worldwide to boost reserves and a slowing economy and a surge in EV use eroding domestic demand. However, mounting geopolitical obstacles limit their room for manoeuvre.

Lu Ruquan is the director of CNPC’s Economics and Technology Research Institute and is actively involved in discussions about strategy. He said that CNPC could rekindle its investment in large oil and natural gas assets, just as it did 20 years ago when it bought Canada’s PetroKazakhstan for $4 billion and took over Devon Energy’s operations in Indonesia.

The Asian oil giant's new strategy would return it to its more acquisitive 1990s-2000s, when they moved into Sudan and Chad as well as completed the Kazakh and Indonesian agreements.

Lu compared the company's 30 years of overseas investments to a "ship sailing towards midstream" as he explained the need for CNPC embarking on more global acquisitions.

Lu, who was the former head for strategy and development of CNPC International, before moving to ETRI's headquarters, said: "One must paddle harder or else the boat will go backward." This rare insight into the strategic thinking at one of China's largest state-owned enterprises is a fascinating look at how the company thinks.

PetroChina alone holds $37.5 billion cash equivalents by 2023, which is enough to give CNPC the power to impact the oil and gas deal landscape.

Lu said that CNPC could expand its LNG investments in Qatar. This follows the deal last year, which ties a small share in QatarEnergy’s massive gas liquefaction facilities to a multiyear offtake contract.

He said that CNPC would also scout out opportunities on deep-sea acreage in South America adjacent to the fields in Guyana, where China's CNOOC Ltd, part of an Exxon Mobil led consortium, made massive discoveries.

PetroChina is a more productive company than Exxon Mobil, but according to data from the company, its output share from global operations has shrunk to 11% in 2018 from nearly 14% a year earlier. Chinese companies have limited their global acquisitions since the 2014/15 oil prices collapse.

Lu warned that due to the sanctions restrictions in hydrocarbon-rich countries such as Venezuela and Iran, it is more practical to extend existing contracts, such as those with Kazakhstan and Indonesia which are about expire.

PetroChina's greatest strength is the ability to extract oil from aging fields, said he. This capability was developed over many decades in the Daqing field of northeast China.

Wood Mackenzie analysts predict that national oil companies will resume international acquisitions after a two-decade low last year as the industry refocuses its attention on oil and natural gas in response to a slowdown of energy transition activities.

Woodmac stated that "International business development is a top priority for China's biggest NOCs. However, they have taken a cautious approach in recent years to deal-making."

Lu said that CNPC is likely to face the greatest geopolitical challenges since its first overseas venture in 1993.

Chinese firms have not made new investments in Russia, as many global companies left the country after Russia's conflict with Ukraine. China is still one of Russia’s largest oil customers and its natural gas market is growing rapidly.

The strained relations with the United States has hindered business opportunities in this country, where 250 billion dollars worth of deals were made last year during industry consolidation.

CNPC, PetroChina and other Chinese companies do not have any assets in the United States. PetroChina was delisted by the New York Stock Exchange due to auditing concerns.

Lu warned that alliances combining CNPC’s engineering and construction expertise with the commercial and legal knowledge of oil majors, like Kashagan, Kazakhstan, with Chevron have limitations as a model.

As a small-scale investor, it's difficult to protect your interests and gain access to sufficient operational information. He said that we would need to have strong commercial and legal abilities, which are our weakest links.

(source: Reuters)