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Japan considers Alaska LNG Pipeline pledge to win Trump’s favour

Three officials with knowledge of the situation say that Japan may offer support for a $44billion gas pipeline in Alaska to appease U.S. president Donald Trump and avoid potential trade friction. Sources said that officials in Tokyo believe Trump will bring up the project, which is a key part of the U.S. security and prosperity, at his first meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru ishiba in Washington, as early as next week.

The overall cost of gas is causing Japan to doubt the viability the 800-mile pipeline that would link fields in Alaska to a southern port where the gas could be liquefied before being shipped to Asian consumers. Officials said that Japan is willing to look into a possible deal, if requested.

One person said that Tokyo could include this commitment along with other concessions such as increasing defense spending and manufacturing investments in the U.S. to reduce the $56 Billion bilateral trade deficit, and stave off tariffs.

The White House didn't immediately respond to an inquiry about the meeting. The Japanese foreign ministry stated that it was too early to talk about the issue.

No details of Japan's potential interest in the Alaska Project have been reported previously. They spoke under the condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to the media. One of the executive orders Trump issued when he assumed office on January 20 promised to unlock Alaska's potential resource, including "the sale and transportation Alaskan LNG to other areas of the United States or allied nations in the Pacific region". Trump has presented the project as a win-win for Alaska and U.S. ally nations in Asia who are looking for a reliable source of energy. Japan has plenty of access to LNG and its companies have traded more than half the country's domestic consumption last year. The Alaska pipeline can still help Japan diversify its supply away from more risky sources such as Russia and the Middle East, which account for around one-tenth (10) of its gas imports.

Ishiba stated in the parliament on Friday, that although Japan must reduce its reliance on fossil-fuels, there are "things that we should ask from the U.S. regarding stable energy supply". Ishiba did not mention Alaska or give any specifics.

Officials warned that Ishiba would not be able make any firm commitments regarding LNG, such as investing in the Alaska Project, when he met Trump. A fourth official stated that any deal must offer flexibility and reasonable pricing, as well as allowing Japanese buyers the option to resell LNG purchased.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on a variety of foreign goods, but has revealed little since his return to office about his policy towards economic and security relations with Japan. The topic has dominated the political discourse in Japan. A key U.S. ally and major foreign investor, Japan was shaken by Trump's tariffs on imports of steel and his demand that Tokyo pay more for hosting American troops during his first term.

The media in Tokyo is focusing on whether Ishiba can recreate the bond between Trump and former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during Trump's first term.

Abe was the first foreign president to meet Trump following his election victory in 2016. The pair became close friends and played golf together.

Ishiba’s administration sought advice from U.S. policy experts and lawmakers with connections to Japan and Trump, as it did not have such intimate knowledge of Trump’s inner circle. These include former U.S. Ambassador to Tokyo Bill Hagerty, who is a Tennessee Senator, and Kenneth Weinstein from the Hudson Institute.

Weinstein said he encouraged Japan to strengthen energy partnerships with the U.S., and that the Alaska Project deserved serious consideration. Hagerty’s office didn't respond to any questions.

Ado Machida is a Tokyo-based entrepreneur who was on Trump's team of transition after his election win in 2016. He said that an offer from Japan to purchase more LNG and to support the Alaska LNG Pipeline would "probably be the easiest" way for Trump to accept.

Machida said that Trump would want to know the Japanese government's response to his proposal. He added that he spoke to Japanese officials about it.

One of the officials stated that state banks, such as the Japan Bank for International Cooperation, could finance the Alaska project for trading firms like Mitsubishi Corp and Mitsui & Co. Japan relies on these companies to secure its oil, gas, and coal reserves abroad.

Mitsubishi has reached an agreement in 2022 with Alaska Gasline Development Corporation, the state-owned company that oversees the LNG proposal to evaluate the feasibility of ammonia production. Mitsubishi hasn't committed to the project past an assessment. Mitsubishi and Mitsui refused to comment on possible investments and discussions regarding the Alaska LNG Project. JBIC stated that it would provide support on a case by case basis, taking factors such as the involvement of Japanese companies into consideration.

A spokesperson for AGDC stated in a press release that it had spoken with Japanese leaders of the energy industry about the project. However, they did not provide any specifics.

Despite opposition from environmentalists, the project was first approved under Trump's previous term. In 2020, it received final legal approval and in 2022 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission authorization. AGDC announced this month that it has entered into an agreement to advance the pipeline with Glenfarne.

(source: Reuters)