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Sources: Airbus will win the bulk of the major Flydubai jet orders
Airbus is likely to win the largest share of the major order for jets from flydubai during the Dubai Airshow. This will break Boeing's grip over the fast-growing low-cost carrier, according to people familiar with the situation. They said that the European planemaker is close to a deal with flydubai to sell around 100 A321neos. Flydubai has also been in discussions to order a smaller number of 737 MAXs from Boeing. Airbus could get 100 jets out of this deal, but the final split will depend on the outcome of negotiations that are expected to last until the end as the industry meets for its summit from November 17-21. Airbus and Boeing declined comment. Flydubai did not respond immediately to requests for comments. The airline has 175 MAX aircraft in its fleet, or 30 Boeing 787s on order. Leading Global Customer Airbus' deal to sell the 737 MAX to one of the world's largest customers, who has bought the aircraft exclusively from Boeing up until now, will further consolidate Europe's leadership in the most sought-after narrow-body jet market. Sources said that Flydubai will continue to maintain a fleet roughly balanced based on Boeing orders made earlier. The airline previously stated that it is looking to place the largest aircraft order it has ever placed, indicating it will purchase more than 175 MAX jets it ordered in 2017. Sources said that if options were included in the negotiations this week, the airline would be able to secure hundreds of new aircraft. Reports on Friday indicated that Airbus would be expected to take a piece of the business from the budget airline for the first ever. Boeing Commercial Airplanes' CEO Stephanie Pope stated on Sunday that the company would focus primarily on discussions with airlines regarding its path to recover from a number of corporate crises rather than maximising orders at this year's show. Analysts predicted that Airbus would win the Dubai Airshow following a May visit by U.S. president Donald Trump to the Gulf, which accelerated the announcement of significant Boeing orders that are usually announced at the Middle East Aviation expo. Airbus announced on Sunday that it expects the aircraft fleet in the region to double by 2044 to 3,700 planes. (Reporting and editing by Alex Richardson; Additional reporting by Ahmed Elimam, Federico Maccioni and Federico Maccioni)
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Boeing wants to improve relations with customers over the 777X delays
Boeing will not use this week's Dubai Airshow to announce new orders, but rather to outline the certification path for its long-delayed mini-jumbo 777x programme. Boeing announced last month a new delay, and took a $4.9billion charge for its biggest twin-engined aircraft, pushing delivery to 2027, which is seven years later than initially planned. Stephanie Pope, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said that she would not be placing orders in the next 2 to 3 days. Pope said, "It is about being transparent and engaging with our customers. We will highlight the progress...and any concerns or issues they may have." Pope spoke after the head host airline Emirates, the largest customer of the jet, said Aviation Week that he was "miffed", to learn about the delays from the media. When asked about the comments during a pre-show press briefing, Pope did not comment directly on discussions between Emirates, but stated that it was "unacceptable for me to have any of our clients be surprised and our focus is being as transparent as we can". Pope confirmed that Air Current's report that Boeing has won regulatory approval for the next and most crucial phase of certification trials, the 777X, was correct. She told reporters that demand for jetliners remains high. Boeing is leading this year's race for orders against Airbus, after an influx of orders coincided with the visit by U.S. president Donald Trump to the Gulf in May. Analysts predicted a quieter-than-usual Dubai Airshow. Sources in the industry have stated that flydubai is expected announce an order at the event. However, Airbus will win part of business from the airline, which was previously a Boeing-only carrier, following back and forth negotiations leading up to this show. Last year, the CEO of the carrier said that it would place a record order after buying 175 Boeing aircraft in 2017. (Reporting and editing by Tim Hepher)
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German top minister travels to China for dialogue with China on trade tensions
Lars Klingbeil, German Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister, said that dialogue with China was key to finding solutions to pressing problems such as supply chain uncertainty and Chinese excess capacity. He made this statement on Sunday before his visit to China. The visit coincides with Germany's reevaluation of its trade policy toward China. It is accelerating the policy of "derisking" following Beijing's recent restrictions on rare earths, semiconductors and other products. Klingbeil, speaking in Berlin just before departing to Beijing, said that "access to raw materials critical and the reduction in Chinese overcapacity of sectors like steel and electric mobility is of great importance for Germany's economy and employment." He added, "We don't shy away from the competition but it has to be fair." Klingbeil is the first German minister to visit China. After Beijing only confirmed one of the meetings he requested, Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul decided to postpone his trip planned for October's end. CHINA AND GERMANY WILL DISCUSS THE UKRAINE WAR Klingbeil noted that Russia's war against Ukraine would also be discussed, and that it has grave consequences not only for Europe, but for stability worldwide. Klingbeil stated that "China has a crucial role to play in ending this war."
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Airbus predicts Middle East regional aircraft will more than double in 2044
Airbus' regional aircraft fleet in the Middle East is expected to double by 2044 to 3,700 planes, a senior official revealed on Sunday. Airbus's Head of Marketing for Africa and the Middle East, Grainne Van den Berg, told a recent press conference that the European planemaker anticipates Middle East passenger traffic to grow at a rate of 4,4% per year over the next 20 years. Van den Berg said that Airbus expects services in the region will double by 2044 to $29.9 billion. The forecast was made ahead of the Dubai Airshow - the Middle East's largest aviation event, which takes place from November 17-21. Airbus, one of the competing planemakers in the race to win orders from Boeing, believes that widebody aircraft will account for 42% (the highest percentage globally) of the total demand by 2044. Gabriel Semelas, Airbus' President for Africa and Middle East, said that the Middle East was a major force in global aviation. The forecast fleet expansion, especially when it comes widebody aircraft, is significant. Semelas said, "This region will become the hub for long-haul travel in the future." Reporting by Federico Maccioni in Dubai and Ahmed Elimam, writing by Menna al-Din in Cairo and editing by Andrew Heavens and Alexander Smith.
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Boeing aims to stabilize the industry before increasing production
Boeing's top executive in jet manufacturing said that the company aims to stabilize aircraft production levels at present before moving on to new industrial milestones, while implementing safety and quality improvements. Boeing Commercial Airplanes' CEO Stephanie Pope said it was still too early to predict when Boeing will increase 737 jet production to 47 per month. The regulators had recently cleared Boeing to achieve 42 per month following the lifting of temporary output limits. Pope told a press conference ahead of the Dubai Airshow that "getting it right at (the correct) pace is more important than speeding up." PRODUCTION MILESTONES Boeing received approval last month to increase 737 production to 42 planes per month. This is a reduction of the 38-plane limit in place following a mid-air explosion in 2024 caused by missing bolts on a door plug. This incident exposed Boeing's widespread safety and product quality failures. The U.S. aircraft manufacturer is producing 42 jets per month, and is close to reaching 8 a monthly production rate for the 787 model. Pope stated that his initial focus was to stabilize at these two rates. This would include meeting six targets set with the Federal Aviation Administration. These included keeping track of supplier shortages and work out-of sequence. Pope stated that the trend of such industrial errors is declining. Pope replied that he could not define when the milestones of 10 per month for the 787 and 47 a monthly for the 737 would be achieved. "We'll increase the rate when the system allows it." NEW 'NORTH LINE' AT EVERETT FACTORY Boeing, after decades of producing the 737s in its Renton plant, south of Seattle is now setting up a "North line" at its vast wide-body Everett facility, north of Seattle to increase production of the narrow body jet. Pope said that this will not be necessary until Boeing takes its next step to pre-Covid levels, which are 52 per month. Pope responded that "my near-term goal is to focus on one rate reduction at a time." She added that the extra capacity was part of a plan to "meet the demand and market for our products in the long-term". Boeing is far behind Airbus in terms of industrial performance, largely due to the success of Airbus' A321neo. It also has a number of safety and production mishaps with its 737-series that produce most of the cash for the company. Airbus produces 63 A320neo jets per month, and plans to increase that number to 75 in 2027. However, some suppliers doubt whether this goal is realistic. Analysts believe that the production plans for both companies are crucial as Boeing attempts to repair its finances, and Airbus tries to build up an arsenal for the next-generation of aircraft. (Reporting and editing by David Goodman, Alex Richardson and Tim Hepher)
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After Ukrainian attack, oil loadings resume at Russia's Novorossiysk Port
Two industry sources and LSEG data show that the Russian port of Novorossiysk resumed oil loadings Sunday, after a suspension lasting two days due to a Ukrainian drone and missile attack. Novorossiysk suspended oil exports on Friday, a move that equates to 2.2 millions barrels of oil per day or 2% global supply. Oil prices rose by over 2% globally on the back of supply concerns following the attack. According to two anonymous industry sources, loadings have resumed. According to LSEG, two tankers - the Suezmax Arlan and Aframax Rodos - are loading oil on the port's berths. Two oil berths were damaged by the Ukrainian attack in Novorossiysk. The Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk was the most destructive attack against Russia's major Black Sea crude export infrastructure. A long shutdown could have led to the costly closure of oil wells located in West Siberia. This would have reduced the amount sent by Russia, the second largest oil exporter on the planet, to the international markets. After months of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries and oil depots, the attack on Novorossiysk was a response to those attacks. Reports on Thursday showed that despite Ukraine's largest drone attacks, Russia's oil production has only fallen by 3% in this year. According to industry sources, the total amount of crude oil shipped through Novorossiysk’s Sheskharis Terminal in October was 3.22 million tons, or 761,000 barges per day. Sources said that 1.794 millions tonnes of oil products have been exported through Novorossiysk during October. Reporting by Guy Faulconbridge; Editing by Christina Fincher and Guy Faulconbridge
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Sources and LSEG data show that oil loadings have resumed at Russia's Novorossiysk Port
Two industry sources and LSEG data show that the Russian port of Novorossiysk resumed oil loadings Sunday, after a suspension lasting two days due to a Ukrainian drone and missile attack. Novorossiysk temporarily halted oil exports on Friday, equating to 2.2 millions barrels of oil per day or 2% global supply. According to two anonymous industry sources, loadings have resumed. According to LSEG, two tankers - the Suezmax and Aframax classes Rodos - are loading oil on the port's berths. Two oil berths were damaged by a Ukrainian drone at the Russian Black Sea port Novorossiysk on Friday, which forced it to suspend operations. The Ukrainian attack on Novorossiysk was the most damaging attack against Russia's main Black Sea oil export infrastructure. Guy Faulconbridge, Editor and Reporter (Reporting)
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Boeing announces imminent partnership with T-7 Trainer Export Bid
Boeing executives announced on Sunday that they are close to announcing an agreement to bid for a sales opportunity in international markets for the T-7 trainer. They highlighted the fast-growing need for light military training aircraft. In July, it was reported that Boeing and Sweden’s Saab had been in discussions with Britain’s BAE Systems about a possible future replacement for the UK’s Hawk trainer. Boeing and Saab jointly developed the T-7 Advanced Trainer for the U.S. Air Force. Meanwhile, Britain plans to replace the Hawk fleet that is out of production, a part of which can be instantly recognised through the Red Arrows team. Steve Parker, Boeing's Defense, Space & Security CEO, responded "Watch this space" when asked at a briefing before the Dubai Airshow if the partnership would meet Britain's needs for trainers. He declined to give any further details. Boeing officials stated that the announcement of the planned cooperation would be made within a week. They also said that the overall demand for trainers was spread across major markets, including Europe and Asia. A British defence strategy review in June recommended replacing BAE Hawk, and the UK government welcomed any interest from UK suppliers. BAE said that it had not yet decided whether or not to develop a replacement for the Hawk, which was discontinued in 2000. (Reporting and editing by Alexander Smith; Tim Hepher)
What might happen to the Russian energy market if sanctions were lifted?
One of the topics on the agenda is a possible relief in the sanctions against Russia, which includes its vast energy sector.
The oil and gas sector is a major source of revenue for Moscow. It has been under Western sanctions since 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine. These sanctions were tightened considerably after Russia invaded Ukraine 2022. Washington announced its most severe round of sanctions in January 2010.
Here are some implications of a possible reversal.
RUSSIA TRADE with US and EU
Before the war, Russia was the biggest supplier of fuel oil in the United States. It exported up to one million metric tonnes (240,000 barrels of fuel per day) per month.
The United States imported crude oil, mainly from Russia's Far East. If sanctions are lifted, these flows could resume.
Before the war, Europe was the largest buyer of Russian gas and oil. The European Union has imposed several rounds of sanctions, the most recent package being extended until September. This and efforts to reduce the bloc's dependence on Moscow have dramatically reduced these figures.
Eurostat reports that the volume of "petroleum" oil imported from Russia during the fourth quarter of 2024 is 10% less than it was in the first three months of 2021.
The EU is not expected to change its imports of Russian gas and oil until it reviews the current sanctions.
Even if sanctions were lifted, a return to the energy supply of pre-war is unlikely. Damage to infrastructure such as the Nord Stream pipelines connecting Russia and Germany, of which three were blown up by 2022, will also limit future flow.
PAYMENTS
The impact of the easing financial sanctions by the United States on Russian energy revenues and exports would be greater.
The U.S. sanctions and EU sanctions have forced Russian exporters to switch to alternative payment methods and increased fees. The easing of U.S. sanction could allow Russian companies to conduct transactions in dollars.
Russian and Chinese banks have found a way to shorten the payment period, but problems persist.
The cost of payments in currencies other that the U.S. Dollar is high, as Russian oil suppliers have to convert their currency several times.
The U.S. imposed sanctions on January 10, which included Gazprom Neft, and Surgutneftegaz. These two companies, the third- and fourth-largest Russian oil producers by production, had to depend more on intermediaries.
In November, United States also imposed sanction on Russia's Gazprombank which was used to pay Gazprom's European gas customers.
Washington has issued temporary waivers for Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey to facilitate payment through the bank.
Prices are listed below.
The U.S. and its allies, including the EU, capped Russian oil prices at $60 per barrel. Western shippers and insurers are prohibited from facilitating any trade above this level due to sanctions. Russian exporters could find that more maritime service providers are willing to work with Russian exporters if the U.S. ceases to enforce the cap.
The price of Russia's Urals crude, its flagship, collapsed early in 2022 after European refiners, which were the main buyers, stopped importing.
Urals is now valued at around $10 a barrel less than the Brent crude benchmark, compared to pre-war levels that were around $1 to $2 per barrel.
Urals may increase if U.S. Sanctions are eased, but they are unlikely to return back to their historical levels until European sanctions are lifted.
Russia will continue selling most of its crude oil to India and China until then. These countries became the largest buyers when European refiners stopped purchasing.
Shipping
Since 2022, the U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions against hundreds of vessels that are involved in Russian oil and gas shipments. It also imposed sanctions upon dozens of shipping companies and several Russian insurance firms.
Many vessels suspended operations due to the sanctions. Some traders have called the docking of sanctioned ships off Russian ports "tanker graveyards".
Should such sanctions be lifted, Moscow will pay less to ship its crude oil and thus increase its revenue from crude sales.
No sanctions are in place on the import of Russian pipeline natural gas. However, most countries have stopped buying it since Russia invaded Ukraine. This makes Gazprom, the Russian gas export monopoly, the biggest corporate victim of the conflict.
U.S. sanctions included companies that supported the Arctic LNG 2 project in Russia. The development of Russian LNG plant could be accelerated if the sanctions are lifted. Nina Chestney and Simon Webb edited the report.
(source: Reuters)