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Fuel shortages in the US add to supply risk during an above-average hurricane season

Analysts said that low fuel stock levels in the United States had fueled supply anxiety ahead of an expected hurricane season above average.

The U.S. gasoline and diesel stock levels have been at or below their five-year average, partly because of a series of refinery shutdowns and unplanned maintenance over the past few weeks.

Forecasters predict that this year's Atlantic Hurricane Season will produce over 17 named storms. This could threaten the majority of U.S. refineries and a large part of the oil production along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

The latest Energy Information Administration data showed that U.S. stocks of distillate fuel oil fell to the lowest level since April 2005. The week's gasoline stocks dropped by 2.4m barrels, while analysts expected a 527k-barrel drop.

A major disruption in Gulf Coast refinery would be quickly felt by Eastern demand centers, and could cause prices to spike there as the region scrambles to import additional products to meet demand.

Chowdhury said that the Gulf Coast is the main source of inbound transfer for the East Coast. Colonial Pipeline is the main conduit for fuel moving from the U.S. Gulf Coast up to the East Coast.

A new S&P Global Commodity Analysis shows that if a major hurricane hit the Gulf Coast in this season, gasoline stocks and diesel inventories could fall below their seasonal range of five years.

Fuel demand could be a factor that limits the volatility of refined products prices.

Joe DeLaura is a senior energy strategist with Rabobank. He said: "I think that if we have a strong storm season this year - and it is supposed to be one of the biggest ones ever - it will negatively impact prices and logistics."

"Some refineries are out of service for a few days or even a week, but the product demand is also lower during this time."

(source: Reuters)