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What Moscow could do if Trump stopped Russian oil exports to India

The U.S. president Donald Trump's request to India to stop Russian oil imports may threaten billions of dollars in Russian revenue, and Moscow could retaliate with the shutdown of a major U.S. oil pipeline. This could lead to another global supply crisis.

India, the third-largest oil importer in the world, is now the largest buyer of Russian crude oil. It purchases up to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day, which represents 2% of the global supply. China and Turkey are also among the top buyers.

Analysts at JP Morgan stated this week that the Indian route was so vital to the Kremlin, if it were disrupted, it would prompt the Kremlin to take retaliation by shutting the CPC pipeline in Kazakhstan, which is owned by U.S. oil giants Chevron & Exxon.

The U.S. Bank said that Russia has leverage.

Trump has threatened to impose tariffs up to 100 percent on countries who buy Russian oil, unless Moscow agrees to a peace agreement with Ukraine before August 7-9. On Friday, a 25% tariff will be applied to all U.S. imports of goods from India.

Reports on Thursday indicated that Indian state refineries halted their purchases of Russian crude oil in the wake of Trump's threats.

REALIGNMENT

India has only been buying large amounts of oil from Russia since 2022, when it became the second largest oil exporter in the world. After Europe, Russia’s former largest client, banned Russian oil due to its military actions against Ukraine, India became the top importer. Rosneft, the Russian oil giant, has a large stake in India's largest oil refinery.

According to data from the Indian government, India will be 35% dependent on Russian oil imports in 2024-25. These imports are expected to total $50.2 billion.

Aldo Paribas' Aldo Spangjer said that cutting off the flow would require massive realignment in trade flows. He added that global supply is already stretched.

According to LSEG, India purchases all types and grades of Russian crude oil, including Urals and Sokol from Western ports and ESPO and Sokol in the Pacific, as well as some grades from the Arctic.

India would be the worst affected if it stopped buying Urals, as India purchases up to 70 percent of Russia's largest export grade. India's oil ministry said that the country could find an alternative supply.

India would have to increase imports of Middle Eastern and U.S. crude oil or reduce refining operations, which could lead to an increase in diesel prices in Europe.

Neil Crosby, from Sparta Commodities, said that Indian refiners may have to paring runs because they will struggle to replace heavy Russian crude.

Falling Income

Russia continues to sell oil despite international sanctions since 2022, even though it does so at a discount to global prices.

The fall in global prices has already put pressure on Russia's income. The finance ministry reported that its oil and gas revenues fell 33.7% on an annual basis in June, to their lowest level since January 2023. Calculations show that revenues will drop 37% in July as a result of lower global oil prices, and a stronger rouble.

The traders stated that if India ceases to buy oil, Russian companies will be forced to store it on tankers, pay extra for shipping costs, and offer large discounts to new customers.

Traders said that a loss of 2,000,000 bpd in exports could also prompt Russia to gradually reduce its oil production, which is currently at 9,000,000 bpd. Russia's production is currently regulated by OPEC+ quotas.

How can Russia respond?

JP Morgan reported that Russia could divert up to 0.8 million barrels per day of oil towards Egypt, Malaysia Pakistan, Brunei South Africa, and Indonesia.

Moscow could also interrupt the CPC pipeline in order to ensure that the West suffers the consequences of higher oil prices. ExxonMobil, ChevronShell, ENI, TotalEnergies and Chevron ship up to one million barrels per day via CPC. The pipeline has a total capacity of about 1.7 million barrels.

Crosby said that if we have a noticeable and substantial problem clearing Russian crude, and Putin shuts down CPC, the oil price could rise to well over $80 a barrel.

The CPC pipeline crosses Russian soil and the consortium clashed against Moscow which ordered that it suspend operations in 2022 or 2025 for several days citing environmental regulations and tanker regulations.

If CPC and Russian oil flows were to be stopped together, it would disrupt global supply by 3.5 million barrels per day or 3.5%.

JP Morgan stated that the Trump administration will find it impossible to sanction the second largest oil exporter in terms of causing oil prices to spike.

(source: Reuters)