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What do we know about the Nord Stream explosions?

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German prosecutors announced on Thursday that they have arrested a Ukrainian suspected of coordinating attacks on Nord Stream's gas pipelines.

The arrest marks the first major breakthrough in the investigation into mysterious underwater explosions which occurred in September 2022 on the Baltic Sea.

What we know about blasts

What is NORD STREAM?

Nord Stream System consists of two double pipes, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, built by Russia’s state-controlled Gazprom, to deliver up 110 billion cubic meters (bcm), of gas per year across the Baltic Sea, to Germany.

Four concrete-coated steel pipes of approximately 1,200 km (750 mi) in length with a diameter of more than one meter were found at a depth between 80 and 110 m.

The NS1 was put into operation in 2012. NS2 has been completed and is filled with gas in September 2021, but it was never commissioned.

Germany canceled its approval process just days before Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022. This put Europe's dependence on Russian gas under the spotlight.

How were the pipes damaged?

The Swedish seismologists recorded several blasts on Sept. 26, 2022. They were 17 hours apart and occurred off the Danish Island of Bornholm. Three of the four NS pipes ruptured, sending methane plumes into the air.

Gazprom reported that about 800 million cubic meters of gas, which is equivalent to approximately three months' supply of Danish gas, had leaked. The gas leakage stopped after several days.

One pipeline, NS2, is the only one that remains intact. Denmark gave permission in January to carry out preservation work, but there is no evidence that any work was done.

Western companies that had stakes in the pipelines or who financed their construction, like E.ON and Shell, have written-off all of their investments following the explosions.

Who was behind the explosions?

No one has accepted responsibility.

Denmark and Sweden concluded that it was a sabotage act, but they closed their investigations without identifying a suspect in February 2024.

Western media including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal and others have reported that a pro Ukrainian group is behind the attack.

The German prosecution identified the suspect arrested only as Serhii, and claimed that he was a member of a group who planted devices near Bornholm on pipelines.

The prosecution said that he and his accomplices set out from Rostock, on Germany's northern-eastern coastline, in a sailing yacht rented to carry out the attacks.

Der Spiegel magazine in Germany and ZDF TV reported previously that six people, five men and one women, were aboard the yacht which left Rostock September 6, 2022 and returned September 23, 2022.

Andromeda was seen near the explosions on a Danish island called Christianso. It also appeared in the Swedish port Sandhamn, and at Kolobrzeg Marina, Poland before returning to Germany.

German media reported that German investigators raided a yacht in January 2023 and found traces of explosives similar to those discovered by Sweden on the explosion sites.

The Germans told the United Nations they believed that trained divers could have attached the devices to the pipes at a depth between 70 and 80 metres (262-262 ft).

German media reported also that Berlin issued an European arrest warrant for 2024 against Volodymyr, a Ukrainian diving teacher, as part of the attack.

Polish prosecutors stated that the suspect who was living in Poland during this time left later for Ukraine. The prosecutors also stated that there is no evidence suggesting Poland was used to launch the attacks.

What did Western Intelligence know about the attack?

Der Spiegel reported on September 27, 2022 that the CIA warned Germany about possible Baltic Sea pipeline attacks in summer 2022.

The Washington Post wrote, citing online leaks, that in June 2023, the United States knew of a Ukrainian attack plan on the Nord Stream gas pipelines 3 months before the damage was done.

The Post reported that the intelligence report was based upon information from a Ukrainian source. It added that the CIA had shared the report with Germany and other European nations in June 2022.

The Dutch national broadcaster NOS announced the same month the tip originated from the Dutch military spy agency MIVD.

The Post reported that the CIA had relayed through an intermediary to Ukraine's former Commander-in Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi the message that Washington was against such an operation.

I was not able to independently verify the reports.

(source: Reuters)