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Oil prices increase as the market considers Russia's supply risk and US rate decision

Oil prices rose Tuesday, as markets considered a possible disruption in supplies from Russia as a result of Ukrainian drone attacks against its ports and refineries. They also weighed the possibility of a U.S. interest rate cut.

Brent crude futures rose 53 cents or 0.8% to $67.97 per barrel at 1221 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate Crude was $63.93, an increase of 63 cents or 1%. Brent crude settled at $67.44 on Monday, up 45 cents, and WTI closed 61 cents higher, at $63.30.

Three industry sources reported on Tuesday that the Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft warned its producers they might have to reduce production following Ukraine's drone strikes on key export ports and refineries.

Ukraine intensified its attacks on Russia's infrastructure to undermine Moscow's military capabilities as the talks to end the conflict have stagnated.

Analysts at JP Morgan said that an attack on a terminal such as Primorsk would have a greater impact on Russia's ability sell oil overseas, and thus affect export markets.

They said that "More important, the attack indicates a growing willingness of international oil markets to be disrupted, which could add upward pressure on oil price."

Goldman Sachs estimates the Ukrainian attacks has taken out approximately 300,000 barrels of Russian refining capability per day in August and this month.

The bank stated that "while the uncertainty surrounding secondary tariffs and other sanctions remains high, it is only reasonable to assume a modestly lower Russian output as Asian buyers continue signaling their willingness to import Russian oil."

U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the government will not impose any additional tariffs on Chinese products to encourage China's halting of purchases of Russian crude oil, unless European countries impose their own duties on China and India, which are the largest buyers of Russian crude.

Investors are also watching the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on September 16-17, where the bank is expected to reduce interest rates.

Analysts were cautious about the state of the U.S. overall economy, despite the fact that lower borrowing costs usually boost fuel demand.

The markets also factored in the possibility of a decline in crude inventories in the U.S. during the last week. Official data is expected to be released on Wednesday, 1430 GMT.

In a note to clients, Macquarie Group's energy strategist Walt Chancellor said that U.S. crude stocks likely dropped by 6.4 million barrels in the week ending September 12 after a build of 3.9 million a week before.

According to a poll conducted on Monday, analysts predicted that U.S. crude and gasoline inventories would have decreased last week while distillate stocks were likely to rise. (Anjana Anil contributed additional reporting from Bengaluru, and Trixie Yap contributed editing in Singapore. Alex Richardson and Joe Bavier edited the article.

(source: Reuters)