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Sources say that Russian oil exports to western ports will decline in November.

Shipping and trading sources, as well as estimates by, predict that Russia's oil imports from western ports will decrease slightly in November, despite higher refinery run rates, but remain near the record highs of recent months.

The November exports of Urals crude, Siberian Light and KEBCO grades are expected to be around 2.3 million barrels a day (bpd). This includes volumes carried over from September. The November figure is just marginally below October's figure, which was around 2.4m bpd. This included some volume carried over from September.

According to industry sources, Russia's western port operated at near capacity in September and October. Participants in the market had anticipated a greater drop in November exports, citing increased refinery processing at home and reduced transport capacity due to storms or external impacts.

A recent attack on port infrastructure in Tuapse caused the shutdown of Rosneft’s Tuapse refining plant and could prompt the company boost crude exports. The recent drone attack against Lukoil Volgograd is also expected to release more crude for export.

"At first, the November nomination was lower than that of October. But then everything changed. Novorossiisk and the Baltic are going to be big. "Everything is in flux right now," said a source, who noted that seasonal storms may still affect export capabilities.

According to data from several sources including LSEG terminals in Novorossiisk, transshipment of Urals and KEBCO grades, as well as Siberian Light grades, reached 0.85 millions bpd, the highest rate in the last decade.

LSEG data shows that despite the new sanctions imposed by the U.S., EU and Russia last week, Russian oil exports to western ports are not affected. (Reporting and Editing by Louise Heavens).

(source: Reuters)