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EM stocks are on the rise as investors balance Fed hopes and Ukraine risks

Investors were cautious as they assessed the shifting risk appetite in the global market and a series of Ukraine-related events.

The MSCI emerging market equity index was up by 0.2%, while the currencies index was not much changed.

Geopolitical turmoil has kept investors on edge, even though December is usually a calmer month. The markets have been hoping that the Federal Reserve will support momentum by lowering rates. However, the lack of progress in the efforts to end Russia-Ukraine conflict has limited gains.

Ukraine's bonds denominated in dollars were stable on Thursday. Ukraine has struck the Druzhba pipeline in Russia's Tambov central region, according to a GUR military intelligence source on Wednesday.

The talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin, and U.S. ambassadors ended without any significant progress.

SAUDI ARBIAN OIL RECORDS SUCCESS IN EUROPE

The majority of European markets have recovered. Hungary's Budapest SE Index gained 0.5%, and Polish stocks rose 0.6%.

The Czech crown fell by 0.4% against euro and the Polish Zloty dropped by 0.1%. Poland's central banks cut the main interest rate another 25 basis points Wednesday. This is their sixth reduction in this period.

The markets also breathed a huge sigh after a series of economic data released by the U.S. on Wednesday raised expectations of a Fed rate reduction.

Saudi Arabian shares gained 1.1% due to higher oil prices, after Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s oil infrastructure indicated potential supply restrictions. Stalled peace talks also dampened expectations for a deal that would restore Russian oil supplies to global markets.

Despite claims that the talks were constructive, "the question of territory will be difficult to resolve", wrote economists from ING in a recent note.

The blue-chip CSI300 Index in China was up by 0.3%. Analysts and government advisors believe that the country will likely stick to its current target of 5% annual economic growth next year.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7%.

Analysts say that despite short-term headwinds, the outlook for emerging markets assets remains positive.

Brian Levitt is the chief global market analyst at Invesco. He said that "the current macroeconomic climate supports an over-allocation to non-U.S. asset classes."

He said that regional stocks are better placed to benefit from the surge in AI interest, as valuations in general are more benign than those in the U.S.

If U.S. interest rates continue to fall and inflation pressures continue easing, local currency debt may also benefit. (Reporting and editing by Ed Osmond in Bengaluru. Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru)

(source: Reuters)