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ROI-Trump sanctions against Lukoil and Rosneft may reshuffle the global oil map, says Vladimirov
U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil, and Rosneft may trigger a structural restructuring of the global oil industry over the next 12 months. This could reverse Moscow's decades long efforts to increase its international influence through energy investments. The U.S. hit the Kremlin at its core when President Donald Trump imposed sanctions in October on Rosneft, Lukoil and other oil companies that account for two-thirds or more of Russia's oil exports. The measures officially took effect on 21 November. Calculations show that Russia's oil-and-gas?revenues?, which represent around a quarter in federal income, fell by about a third year-on-year in November. The earnings from fossil fuels for Russia, which is the second largest oil exporter in the world, have fallen to their lowest levels since sanctions were imposed following Moscow's invasion into Ukraine in 2022. Turkey, India, and Brazil have reduced their purchases of Russian crude and traders are struggling with placing cargoes. This has left a record amount of Russian oil float at sea. China is likely to absorb some of this volume, but Moscow could be forced into selling at an even higher discount. The earlier measures, such as price caps, diplomatic sanctions and maritime restrictions, had only a limited impact on Moscow's finances. They were aimed at logistics and finance rather than the core of Russia's oil industry. Washington has increased the stakes by showing that Russia’s largest oil companies can no longer be sanctioned. From dominance to?DIVESTMENT. The forced sale by Lukoil and Rosneft of their assets in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, as well as Latin America, could now reroute global supply chain and reshuffle ownership. The permanent loss of Russian corporate existence in key hubs would alter long-term trading patterns and investment patterns, not only short-term flows. Lukoil’s rush to sell its $22 billion portfolio of international assets before the temporary U.S. authorization expires December 13 could allow U.S. and Western investors to take back strategic ground from Moscow. Lukoil has a large number of lucrative stakes in upstream assets, including the West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq; the Karachaganak and Tengiz oil fields in Kazakhstan; Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field; as well as assets from Mexico, Ghana and Nigeria to Egypt and Nigeria. The shift downstream is equally important. If these sanctions are maintained, Lukoil will have to divest its refineries in Bulgaria and Romania, as well as the Netherlands, which were pillars in Russian energy dominance in Europe. Lukoil Finland's subsidiary has already announced plans to close more than 400 service station after the Finnish government refused to grant exemptions. Lukoil secured a waiver that allows it to continue to operate hundreds of retail outlets in the U.S.A., Belgium and the Netherlands, as well as the Western Balkans. However, its share of the market is already small. EASTERN EUROPE UNWINDS RUSSIAN LEVERAGE Eastern Europe is experiencing the most dramatic change. The most dramatic changes are taking place in Eastern Europe. Romania has chosen to comply with all sanctions, and has been accelerating the sale?of?the Petrotel refining plant, while Moldova has taken over Lukoil’s aviation fuel supply infrastructure in order to ensure stability. Hungary and Slovakia are the only EU member states that still import Russian barrels, despite the EU's specific sanctions exemption. Lukoil supplied most crude oil through the Druzhba Pipeline for many years. However, they have other options. They have alternatives, however. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban obtained a temporary U.S. exemption allowing oil and?gas?company MOL continue purchases. However, the exemption is only valid for one year. If Hungary does not stop these purchases, Russia will likely gain the last foothold on the EU oil markets. RECLAMING STRATEGIC SPACES New sanctions may also have a significant impact on the refined products markets, where Lukoil &?Rosneft are major players. The EU will close the "refining gap" in January. This means that major transshipment hubs, which imported large quantities of Russian crude to re-export refined products into Europe, will have to reduce their imports. The EU also targeted India's Nayara Refinery, whose principal shareholder is Rosneft. There are still gaps. It will be difficult to enforce these restrictions on refined products. The EU still has no way to know if products coming from large net oil exporting countries, like Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are made from Russian crude. The global energy market has also adapted in order to keep Russian crude flowing. This includes the development of large “shadow fleets” - tankers operating outside the Western financial system. We now seem to be at an important turning point. Over the years, Russia has used its energy companies as a tool to extend its political and economical reach into Europe, Middle East, and beyond. The global power balance could be shifting in a decisive way.
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CANADA-CRUDE-Discount on Western Canada Select at widest point since March
The discount between the North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures and Western Canada Select futures has widened to its largest point since early March. WCS for Hardisty, Alberta delivery in January settled at $13.55 per barrel below U.S. benchmark WTI according to brokerage CalRock. This compares to $13.15 a barrel on Monday. The WCS discount recently increased after spending most of the year in the $9-$11 price range. This is due to the Trans mountain?pipeline extension which has given Canadian oil producers?additional capacity for export. * Some analysts attribute the widening differential to seasonality while others point out that increased Canadian oil production is putting pressure on it through increased supply. * Prices in global markets edged down on Tuesday after a fall of 2% the previous day. Investors were keeping an eye on peace talks that could end Russia's conflict in Ukraine and on a decision about U.S. rates. (Reporting and editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri in Calgary)
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Shell announces temporary shutdown of two Gulf of Mexico offshore platform
Shell, the oil major in the United States, has announced that two of its offshore platforms are producing. The Gulf of Mexico is temporarily closed due to the shutdown of Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System. The U.S. Gulf's top producer said that it expects the Whale and Perdido platform, which was?shut down on Monday night?, to resume its production by Tuesday. Energy Aspects, a market analysis firm, estimated that Whale produced about 90,000 barrels a day (bpd), whereas Perdido's production stood at approximately?57,000 in September. Shell declined to provide the current production figures. Shell stated that Whale's capacity is around 100,000 boepd at its peak, and Perdido stands at 125,000 boepd. Southern Green Canyon crude oil prices, which are produced in this region, rose by 40 cents on Tuesday, to $2.45 less than U.S. West Texas intermediate?crude. Exxon Mobil did not respond immediately to a?request for comment. The pipeline system transports oil from offshore fields to Freeport, Texas. Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston reporter; Matthew Lewis, editor
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After the attack on a passenger, US threatens to cut off funding for Chicago Transit
U.S. Transportation Department threatened on Tuesday to withhold funding for Chicago 'trains and buses' and demanded increased police protection citing an attack and burning of a woman, 26 years old, last month. In letters sent to Illinois Governor JB Prattker and Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, the?Federal Transit Agency warned that if they did not develop a plan for reducing assaults against transit workers and passengers as well as addressing unsafe conditions, federal funding could be lost. Similar letters were sent by the department to 'New York' and 'Boston, expressing concerns over transit issues. Chicago is also heavily Democratic, as are the other two. Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened funding for large cities led by Democrats including major infrastructure projects Chicago and New York. At a press event, Chicago Mayor?Johnson stated that he would respond to the letter. He also said he takes the threats of funding very seriously. Johnson, at a press conference, said: "We have to look at the security apparatus for public transport." "I don't?need a letter from the Trump administration to let me know what my priorities are." Federal prosecutors indicted a man aged 50 with a federal terrorist offense last month for allegedly lighting a passenger ablaze on a Chicago Transit Authority Train. Lawrence Reed, a Chicago resident, allegedly purchased gasoline from a Chicago station and filled a small container with the liquid about 20 minutes before dumping it on the victim. Reed was detained until his trial, and was ordered to undergo an evaluation of the mental state. Pritzker criticised the FTA letter? at a press briefing. Pritzker stated that the federal government was threatening to take federal funds away from state and local governments for purposes they are not allowed to use. Pritzker said, "We are prepared to implement the safest and most modern transit system possible in the entire country." His office reported that Illinois has passed a public transit reform, which includes increased funding for programs aimed at public safety, such as combating violent crime in public transportation. The Federal Transit Administration?issued an order ordering Chicago to update their transportation safety plan, and maintain a secure operating environment for both workers and passengers. Marc Molinaro, FTA Administrator, said: "If CTA doesn't take immediate action to improve its law enforcement presence we will withhold Federal funds." Reporting by David Shepardson, Washington; Editing and review by Chris Reese & David Gregorio
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Trump Administration waives $16.7 Million in fines for American Airlines due to wheelchair issues
USDOT said Tuesday that it will waive $16.7 Million in fines issued to American Airlines under then-President Joe Biden, in 2024. The fines were issued as part of an agreement over the airline's treatment towards?disabled customers. This included failing to provide them with adequate assistance and mishandling their wheelchairs. USDOT stated that it will require American Airlines to spend $16.8million to benefit passengers with disabilities. This includes requiring American to buy 119 wheelchair lifts in three high-volume airports, as well as mobile phones and software upgrades to allow American to track wheelchairs and record them point-by-point as they move throughout the transport process. According to the original settlement, American was required to pay $25 million in fines over a period of three years. They were also credited with $25 million in credit for investments and compensation to passengers who had been affected. Reporting by David Shepardson, Washington
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USDOT: Passengers affected by A320 software updates are not entitled to compensation.
The U.S. Transportation Department announced Tuesday that airlines who delayed or cancelled U.S. flights due to a government emergency directive to update software on 'Airbus A320 aircraft last'month were not required by law to provide hotel accommodations, meals, or other benefits to affected passengers. Major airlines have agreed to offer such benefits if a cancellation or a significant delay occurs due to circumstances that are within their control. USDOT stated that the Airbus A320 problem -- which was a Federal Aviation Administration requirement for immediate action -- did not trigger this requirement. After a JetBlue A320 was involved in an incident mid-air, a vulnerability for?solar flares' emerged. This led to hundreds of cancellations and delays during the Thanksgiving holiday. In a Tuesday notice, the department stated that "going forward, it will not consider cancellations or long delays caused by unscheduled repairs in response to an airworthiness order?that can't be deferred?or must be addressed prior to a flight as being due to circumstances under airline control." In November, Transportation Department announced that it would not implement a proposal from the Biden Administration to require cash compensation for passengers when airlines cancel or delay flights significantly. Last week, 15 Democratic Senators introduced legislation to force airlines to compensate passengers with cash if they cause significant delays. The U.S. does not require airlines to compensate customers for delays, but they must refund customers who cancel flights. All four countries - the European Union, Canada and Britain - have rules on airline compensation for delays. No major U.S. airlines currently guarantee?cash compensation' for flight delays. USDOT announced in September that it was 'considering' rescinding Biden Regulations requiring airlines to disclose service charges alongside airfare. The Trump administration?also plans to reduce what they call regulatory burdens for airlines and ticket agents, by writing new regulations detailing the definitions of flight cancellations that give consumers a right to ticket refunds. They will also revisit rules on ticket pricing and advertisement.
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Ministry says that half of Kiev's capital is in darkness after Russian strikes
The energy ministry reported that the power was out in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv for about half of the residents on Tuesday after the latest Russian attacks on the country's electricity system. The situation in Kyiv is one of the worst - at the moment, 50%?of the consumers in the capital do not have electricity,"?the ministry stated on Telegram. In recent months, Russia has increased the number of attacks and intensity on Ukrainian energy and gas infrastructure. This includes both power generation facilities and transmission systems. Ukraine has three nuclear power stations that produce more than half of its electricity. However, due to damage on power lines, the plants have been forced to reduce their production. Ukrenergo, the operator of Ukraine's power grid, is forced to reduce its energy supply to consumers. This results in entire regions being plunged into darkness. The power cuts affect heat and water supply. Residents in Kyiv and the Kyiv Region have only had electricity for 10 hours of the 24 that they needed over the last week. (Reporting and Editing by Hugh Lawson, Frances Kerry and Yuliia Diasa)
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Boeing deliveries fall 17% in November, trail Airbus
The company announced on Tuesday that it delivered only 44 new planes in November compared to 53 in the previous month. This is behind European rival Airbus, which delivered 72 aircraft. Boeing delivered 32 737 MAX single-aisle jets to Southwest Airlines in November. TAAG Angola Airlines received six 787s including two 787-10s. This was a major part of their expansion plans. U.S. aircraft manufacturer also delivered two 777 freighters, one to Turkish Airlines (and one to Moldova's Aerotranscargo) and four 767s. In November, the company received 164 "new orders" with 38 cancellations. This amounted to 126 net orders. Boeing has received 74 orders to build its?777X widebody aircraft, which will enter service seven years late, in 2027. Emirates, the launch customer for the 777X jetliners, ordered 65 more of them during the Dubai Airshow. Emirates now has 270 777X jets in its order book. Taiwan's China Airlines has also ordered nine 777X aircraft, adding to its earlier order of 14 777X jets. Boeing received 30 orders for 787 aircraft, 15 of which came from Bahrain's Gulf Air, 8 from Uzbekistan Airways and 6 from Etihad Airways. One order was from an unknown buyer. Unidentified buyers placed 43 orders with the U.S. aircraft manufacturer for 737 MAX jets. The U.S. Air Force also placed orders for 15 KC-46 Tankers and two 777 Freighters. Etihad canceled 15 777X orders. Gulf carrier still has 10 777X order. Air Canada cancelled four 787 orders, and Comair in South Africa canceled five orders for the 737 MAX. Airbus, which delivered more planes than Boeing in November, has cut its full-year target to 790 planes due to an issue with industrial quality. Boeing delivered 537 planes through November 30. This included 396 737 Maxs, 74 777s, 33 767s and 28 767s. It also?booked a total of 1,000 new orders or a net 908. After cancellations and conversions. At the end of November, its order backlog stood at 6,019. Boeing's Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave stated last week that Boeing expects to have positive cash flow by 2026 as a result of increased jet deliveries. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed in Seattle, with Dan Catchpole reporting from Seattle)
After the Ukrainian attack, Kazakhstan has announced that it will divert oil from its Kashagan field towards China
After a drone attack by Ukraine on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Baltic Sea terminal, the Kazakhstani energy ministry announced on Wednesday that it will redirect some oil from its giant Kashagan field to China.
Two sources had told? This week, it was reported that Kazakhstan planned to deliver 50,000 metric tonnes of crude oil?to China from Kashagan in December for the first time since the Ukrainian attack damaged the CPC terminal?last month.
CPC, which is a company with a Russian, Kazakh, and U.S. shareholder base, had to cut back on exports after an attack damaged a 'key' part of their loading infrastructure, the single-point-mooring.
Kazakhstan and the Kremlin have condemned Ukraine's decision to attack CPC facilities because of its international significance and participation.
The majority of oil exported from Kashagan usually goes via the CPC terminal to the damaged terminal in the Russian Black Sea port Novorossiysk, for further shipment.
The Kazakh energy ministry said that the Ukrainian attack on CPC's marine terminal didn't lead to an end of exports.
The Ministry said that it is currently working with the shippers to redistribute volumes of oil.
"Measures were also taken to redirect a certain volume of Kashagan Oil to China."
Eni, Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil. KazMunayGaz, Inpex. and CNPC are developing the offshore Kashagan Field, which is one of the biggest discoveries made in recent decades. (Reporting and writing by Tamara Vaal; editing by Andrew Osborn).
(source: Reuters)