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Bousso: Trump's "Donroe doctrine" could cost US oil companies their jobs if it targets China.
Donald Trump has announced his intention to import Venezuelan oil that was previously sanctioned into the U.S. This will disrupt the global energy game plan and highlight the seriousness of Trump's administration's ambition to control the Western Hemisphere. China could be the ultimate?target of this "Donroe doctrine" - Trump's rebranding a 19th century doctrine that asserted Washington’s zone of control in the Americas. U.S. Oil Companies could be the unintended "victims". Trump announced on Tuesday that Caracas had agreed to export Venezuelan crude worth up to $2 billion to the U.S. It was only a few days after the U.S. ousted Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and demanded that the Latin American nation open its energy sector to American oil firms - or face further military intervention. Trump announced in a post on social media that Venezuela would "turn over" 30 to 50 million barrels sanctioned oil. Although the timeframe of the deal has not been revealed, it is likely that shipments will begin soon. Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary of the United States, said that U.S. Needs to Control Venezuelan oil revenues and sales will be used to fuel the desired changes in Venezuela. Trump's plan is primarily aimed at China, who accounted for about 400,000 barrels of oil per day in Venezuela's exports last. According to Kpler, this is more than 50% of Venezuela's total oil exports. ROI calculated that around two thirds of Venezuelan sanctioned exports were in this category. The U.S. could seize the equivalent of four months' worth of Chinese oil supplies, and about 55 days' worth of Venezuelan production, which is currently around 900,000. The Trump administration has also reportedly instructed Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rod to cut economic ties with China. PetroSinovensa is the largest Chinese oil asset in Venezuela. It's a joint venture between Venezuelan state-owned PDVSA, and China National Petroleum Corp. The JV is located in the Orinoco Belt, and produces around 65,000 barrels per day. The Trump administration's actions against Venezuela are part of a broader geopolitical plan. This is more than just redirecting barrels originally headed for China's refiners. Bob McNally is a former White House official and president of Rapidan Energy Group. He says that it signals President Trump's intention to?push China, Russia and Iran out from their deep footholds within Venezuela. "DONROE DOCUMENT" IN ACTION The White House released its National Security Strategy late last year. The document called for a cementing of U.S. power in the Western Hemisphere, by removing competitors and restoring American control on energy and supply chains. The "Donroe Doctrine", as it is known, harks back to former U.S. president James Monroe's foreign policy in 1823 when he declared that the Americas would no longer be open for future colonisation by European power. Trump's threats to seize Greenland this week, an Arctic self-governing island that is part of Denmark, also align with these ambitions. Investors may want to take the White House national security strategy, and its words, more seriously. He told reporters that the "dominance of America in the Western Hemisphere" would never be questioned. BEIJING BLOWBACK The actions of the 'Americans in Venezuela' have put U.S. firms, especially oil companies, in a difficult position. Exxon Mobil and Chevron, for example, could be facing legal issues if they enter into an agreement with Venezuela's government to invest in assets that were previously owned by Chinese or Russian firms. Trump's unilateral action could also lead to China's retaliation, which would put the assets of U.S. firms abroad at risk. U.S. major oil companies have a number of operations that are jointly owned by Chinese firms. Exxon, for example, wholly owns a petrochemical complex in southern China that began operations last year after a $10 billion investment. Chevron also owns stakes both in upstream joint ventures, as well as in downstream operations for fuels and lubricants. Both companies have also signed large contracts for the supply of liquefied gas to Chinese customers. Of course, the risk extends beyond China. If American companies are increasingly seen as state-owned, host governments may be more reluctant to work with them. Although the U.S. President may not see any downside to ignoring international conventions and rules, American companies might. Subscribe to my Power Up newsletter to receive my weekly column, plus additional energy insights, and links to trending articles every Monday and Thursday. Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global commentary on financial markets. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.
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US withholds $160M in funding for California due to foreign driver licenses
The U.S. Department of Transportation announced on Wednesday that it is withholding federal funds of $160 million from California for failing to cancel 17,000 commercial driver's licences improperly issued by non-U.S. Citizens. First, the department warned that it would take action in September. USDOT stated that California failed to revoke licenses within the agreed upon deadline of January 5, A spokesperson for California Governor Gavin Newsom declined to comment immediately, but previously stated that the state's commercial drivers license holders "had a deadly crash rate nearly 40 percent lower than the average national." Texas, the only state with more commercial drivers than California, has a rate that is almost 50% higher. USDOT reported that an audit revealed more than?25% commercial truck driver's licenses issued by California to non-U.S. citizens were illegal. Derek Barrs said, "We won't accept a plan of correction that leaves thousands of drivers with non-compliant licenses at the wheel of 80,000 pound?trucks and in direct defiance of federal safety regulations." California filed a lawsuit against USDOT last month for the withholding of more than $33 millions in federal funding. The U.S. Transportation Department claimed that the state had not met the rules requiring English competency for truck drivers. California dropped its separate lawsuit in December, which it filed after USDOT withdrew $4 billion of high-speed rail funds. The Trump administration has taken several steps to address "concerns" about foreign truckers who don't speak English. In August, Secretary Marco?Rubio announced that the United States would immediately suspend the issuance all commercial truck driver visas. After a fatal accident in Florida, the?Transportation Department issued an emergency rule to restrict commercial drivers licenses?to those who are not U.S. citizens. Trump has threatened funding to large cities led by Democrats. This includes?for major projects in Chicago and New York, and commercial driver licenses granted by Minnesota, New York, and California to non-U.S. citizens. In 2023, FMCSA reported that approximately 16% of U.S. drivers were born abroad.
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Peru considers private investors to help Petroperu, which is in dire need of cash
The head of the government’s investment promotion agency told an interviewer on Wednesday that Peru may consider'seeking private firms to invest in the state-owned oil company Petroperu, including its $5.6 billion Talara refinery. Luis Del Carpio of Proinversion said that cash-strapped Petroperu will also seek private capital to build a 1,100-kilometer (684-mile) oil pipeline in the north of the nation, known as the Norperuano pipe, which is currently inactive. Petroperu has received government funding for many years, totaling $5.3 billion between 2022-2024. Just before the New Year, a reorganization of assets was approved. Del Carpio stated that an increase in the private ownership of Petroperu does not constitute privatization. Del Carpio explained that "it... involves finding a private investor who will take over management of the refinery and inject capital." Petroperu is one of the biggest oil companies in the country. Its financial problems are partly caused by debts from the Talara Refinery Overhaul, which was 'double the original estimate' and cost the company its investment grade rating in 2022. Petroperu operates or holds concessions on six crude oil blocks that have a?limited output, and it has a fuel marketing and distribution network. Del Carpio stated that a major goal was to pay?creditors', including crude oil suppliers and bondholders on the international market. He said that a meeting with bondholders will take place within the next few weeks. (Reporting and editing by Daina Beth Solon)
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CANADA-CRUDE-Canadian crude at 18-month low versus WTI as Venezuelan turmoil rattles market
Investors digested the U.S. dollar's impact on the price of West Texas Intermediate futures, which is the benchmark for North American crude oil. The deal between President Donald Trump and Venezuelan oil producers to import up $2 billion in Venezuelan crude is now the largest discount for 18 months. WCS for Hardisty, Alberta delivery in February settled at $14.45 per barrel below U.S. benchmark WTI, said brokerage CalRock. This compares to $13.80 a day earlier. This was the largest discount Canadian heavy crude settled at since early July 2024. Over the long term, an increase in Venezuelan barrels may compete with Canadian heavy oil of similar quality in the US Gulf Coast. This threat has caused the oil sands sector in Canada to be spooked. Cenovus Energy, and Canadian Natural Resources are down respectively 5.5% and 8.8% year-to date. Analysts believe that there is the 'potential of further WCS weakness in the months ahead if Venezuela can?rapidly ramp up its oil production. Canada is partially protected by its size, infrastructure and rule-of law advantage. On Wednesday, global oil prices fell for a second straight session. This was the day that Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the U.S. must control Venezuela's revenue and oil sales indefinitely to help stabilize the economy.
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Avelo to end US deportation flights, close Arizona base
Avelo Airlines is a Texas-based budget carrier that announced on Wednesday it would stop deportation flights operated by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security in late January. It will also close its Arizona base citing high costs. Avelo, who previously stated that the opportunity was 'too valuable to not pursue,' faced backlash both from customers and employees over its decision to operate deportation flight under a contract with?Trump Administration. The airline said that the program had some short-term advantages, but ultimately did not generate 'enough predictable and consistent revenue to offset its operational costs and complexity. According to an internal memo, the airline will close its Mesa Arizona base on January 27, where it had stationed 3 aircraft for deportation flight under a "charter-only" operation. Avelo signed an agreement with DHS in April last year to transport migrants from the United States to detention facilities within and outside of the country. The company claimed that boycott calls had not affected its business. Avelo reported that it would carry a record number of 2.6 million passengers on its scheduled commercial service in 2025, an increase of 11% year-over-year. (Reporting from Doyinsola Oladipo in New York, editing by Nia William)
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US air force flexes its power in Maduro's extraction mission
The removal of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on Saturday and his wife demonstrated U.S. aerial dominance. Stealth fighters were deployed to control the skies. Jets were used to jam enemy air defenses. And covert reconnaissance satellites and drones provided real-time intelligence to commanders. Open-source data and industry analysts reviewed by the Defense Department indicate that the U.S. used a full array of helicopters and fighter jets as well as refueling and drone aircraft. This is a major victory for U.S. defense companies and an impressive display. The Pentagon released a statement stating that more than 150 aircraft, including rotary-wing and fixed-wing aircraft, were deployed. Lockheed shares rose 6.2% in the past week while Northrop and Textron both saw gains of 4.4%. SIGNAL TO CHINA This mission sent a signal to China that the United States is capable of executing complex operations overseas at a time when tensions are rising with China. China has been rapidly modernizing and expanding its military presence throughout the Pacific. "It is indicative of something we can only do", said Tim Ray, former commander of the Air Force Global Strike Command and responsible for U.S. long-range conventional and nuclear strike capabilities. Ray, who is CEO of Business Executives for National Security and is currently a former U.S. General, said, "It shows that we can compete economically and geographically with the Chinese right in our backyard." Maduro, who is 63 years old, denied the charges of narcotics in New York on Monday. Trump claimed that "a certain expertise" was needed to control the airspace above Caracas prior to the start of the operation. Dan Caine said that the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff used a variety of capabilities to "create a path" for U.S. planes to enter the country unhindered. It was impossible to determine what all was done to clear the way for U.S. planes. Space Command, according to a spokesperson, provided "multiple capabilities" as "overwatch", which ensured the "freedom of movement" of U.S. aircraft during the mission. In June, the U.S. Military created a similar protection corridor when it sent bombers to Iran in order to attack its nuclear facilities. Delta 3's electromagnetic warfare unit of the U.S. Space Force used satellite jammers on the ground to disrupt Iranian communications in the area, Delta 3 Commander Angelo Fernandez said in December. HELICOPTERS and FIGHTER JET The Venezuelan extraction relied heavily on helicopters. These included MH-60L Direct Action Penetrators - specialized attack helicopters with advanced weapon systems - as well as Boeing Little Bird M/AH-6M support and light-attack helicopters. Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters were used to transport troops and equipment into contested areas. According to defense industry executives, AH-64 'Apache' attack helicopters armed with Hellfire rockets and 30 mm chains guns provided close air support for the extraction phase. Lockheed F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets, capable of evading radar systems with advanced technology, were used to dominate Venezuelan airspace. The F-22 Raptor, a fighter that hunts enemy aircraft, was also present. Other jets included Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets, the Navy's main strike fighters. EA-18G Growlers are a specialized electronic war variant that jams enemy communications and radar, making it difficult for air defenses on the ground to track and kill attacking aircraft. B-1B Lancer bombers are able to deliver precision-guided weapons from beyond the range of air defences. Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers were used to refuel these aircraft in mid-air. This extended their operational range and allowed them to continue the mission for several hours. Mission success was dependent on intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Northrop Grumman E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes, carrier-based early warning aircraft, provided battle management and threats detection. RQ-170 Sentinel drones were used to conduct covert reconnaissance. They had previously been used in 2011 during the operation that found Osama bin Laden. According to a defense industry official, it is unlikely that the latest equipment of the Defense Department was involved as operators are not trained on next-generation platforms. According to the executive, if this operation followed past Pentagon post-mission analyses, the industry would receive a briefing on which equipment worked and what didn't. After Operation Midnight Hammer, airstrikes on Iranian drone facilities, the defense industry was given an hour-long presentation at an industry event detailing the equipment performance and operational issues. (Mike Stone and David Jeans, Washington, DC, and New York, edited by Joe Brock, Chris Sanders, Rod Nickel).
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US air force flexes its power in Maduro's extraction mission
The extraction of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro on Saturday and his wife demonstrated U.S. Air dominance. Stealth fighters were deployed to control the skies. Jets were used to jam enemy air defences. And, covert reconnaissance satellites and drones provided real-time intelligence to commanders. Open-source data from the Defense Department and industry analysts show that the U.S. employed a full array of helicopters and fighter jets as well as refueling and drone aircraft. This is a major victory for U.S. companies in defense and a display likely to be noticed by China. The Pentagon released a statement stating that more than 150 aircraft, including rotary-wing and fixed-wing aircraft, were deployed. Lockheed shares rose 6.2% in the past week while Northrop and Textron both saw gains of 4.4%. SIGNAL TO CHINA This mission demonstrated to China's adversaries that the United States is capable of executing complex operations overseas at a moment when tensions are rising with China. China has been rapidly modernizing and expanding its military presence throughout the Pacific. "It is indicative of something that only we can do," said Tim Ray, former commander of the Air Force Global Strike Command and responsible for U.S. long-range conventional and nuclear strike capabilities. Ray, who is CEO of Business Executives for National Security and the former commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, said, "It shows that we can compete economically and geographically with China in our backyard." Maduro, who is 63 years old, denied the charges of narcotics in New York on Monday. Trump claimed that "a certain expertise" was needed to control the airspace above Caracas prior to the start of the operation. Dan Caine said that the chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff used multiple capabilities in order to "create a path" for U.S. planes to enter the country without being disturbed. Space Command provided multiple capabilities as "overwatch"?that ensured "freedom of maneuver" for U.S. planes during the mission, a spokesperson said. Space Command's "overwatch" capabilities ensured the "freedom to maneuver" of U.S. aircraft throughout the mission. In June, the U.S. Military created a similar protection corridor when it sent bombers to Iran in order to attack its nuclear facilities. Delta 3's electromagnetic warfare unit of the U.S. Space Force used satellite jammers on the ground to disrupt Iranian communications in the area, Delta 3 Commander Angelo Fernandez said in December. HELICOPTERS and FIGHTER JET The Venezuelan extraction relied heavily on helicopters. These included MH-60L Direct Action Penetrators - specialized attack helicopters with advanced weapon systems - as well as Boeing Little Bird M/AH-6M support and light-attack helicopters. Boeing CH-47 Chinook helicopters were used to transport troops and equipment into contested areas. According to executives from the defense industry who studied the raid, AH-64 Apache attack 'helicopters' armed with Hellfire rockets and 30 mm chains guns provided close air support for the extraction phase. Lockheed F-35 fifth-generation fighter jets, capable of evading radar systems with advanced technology, were used to dominate Venezuelan airspace. The F-35 was used 'alongside the F-22 Raptor, a fighter that is designed to hunt down enemy aircraft. The Navy also operated the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet as its primary strike fighter, and the EA-18G Growlers which are specialized electronic warfare jets that can jam enemy radar and communications to make it hard for air defenses on the ground to track and shoot at attacking aircraft. B-1B Lancer bombers can be used to deliver precision-guided weapons from outside of the range air defenses. The aircraft were refueled mid-air by KC-135 Stratotankers. These aerial refueling platforms extended the range of the fighters and bombers throughout the mission. Intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance?proved crucial to mission success. Northrop Grumman E-2D Advanced Hawkeyes, carrier-based early warning aircraft, provided battle management and threats detection. RQ-170 Sentinel drones were used to conduct covert reconnaissance. They had previously been used in 2011 during the operation that found Osama bin Laden. According to a defense industry official, it is unlikely that the latest equipment of the Defense Department was involved as the operators haven't completed training on next generation platforms. According to the executive, if this operation followed past Pentagon post-mission analyses, the industry would receive a briefing on which equipment worked and which did not. After Operation Midnight Hammer, airstrikes on Iranian drone facilities, the defense industry was given an hour-long presentation at a day-long industry event detailing the equipment performance and operational issues. (Mike Stone and David Jeans, Washington, DC, and New York, edited by Joe Brock, Chris Sanders, Rod Nickel).
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US offers to help airlines avoid fines for violating consumer protection laws
The U.S. Transportation Department proposes to revise their guidance and deemphasize the imposing of civil fines against airlines that violate consumer protection laws. They also want to abandon policies from Biden's era, which emphasized a tougher enforcement. The Office of Aviation Consumer Protection of the Department cited a February executive order from President Donald Trump, saying that its enforcement focus would be "on ensuring compliance with consumer protection and civil rights regulations rather than finding entities and penalizing them for violations." The department also said that in the event of violations, it would "attempt to address the issue by issuing a warning letter to help the regulated entitty achieve compliance and solve the issues before taking enforcement action." The department is also proposing to drop a 2023 directive issued by then-President Joe Biden, which stated that the department would "intensify its enforcement actions." It will also seek to increase penalties for airlines who violate consumer protection laws. Biden's administration claimed that these moves were necessary to prevent future violations, and ensure that they weren't viewed as "just a cost to doing business". In the Trump administration's draft guidance, it is stated that "civil penalties must be proportionate to the severity of the violation." The Transportation Department reversed some penalties that were imposed by the Biden administration on airlines last month. It waived $16.7m in fines that were imposed in 2024 on American Airlines as part of an agreement over the carrier’s treatment of “disabled” passengers. This included failing to provide adequate assistance to some and mishandling wheelchairs. Last month, the department agreed to waive the $11 million remaining fine on Southwest Airlines in a settlement of $140 million over operational problems which stranded?2 millions passengers during a busy travel period of December 2022. Southwest Airlines' decision to invest more than $1 billion into its operations was cited by the department in making its decision. The Department of Transportation retracted a proposal made under Biden in November that would have required airlines to compensate passengers for flight delays caused by them. (Reporting and editing by Franklin Paul, Paul Simao and David Shepardson from Washington)
German emissions declined only modestly by 2025, due to building and transport
Agora Energiewende, a think tank for energy, said that Germany's greenhouse gases emissions will only be marginally lower?in 2025 as the?overall climate equilibrium is impacted by the?weak progress made in decarbonising transport and buildings.
Germany, Europe's biggest economy and manufacturing powerhouse, aims to be climate neutral by 2045. Part of this goal is to achieve 80% of electricity from renewable sources by the end the decade.
Agora's annual report stated that carbon dioxide emissions in 2025 will be 640 million tons, a decrease of?1.5%, or 9 millions tons, from the previous year.
Agora calculated that while Germany achieved its annual emissions goal last year, the reduction is less than half of what will be saved in 2024. It was partly due to lower production in energy-intensive sectors, which were a result of weak global demand and prolonged low prices. However, record solar power generation also played a role.
Julia Blaesius is the director of Agora Energiewende Germany.
She added that "The power sector, which has been the main driver of emissions reductions to date, cannot compensate permanently for the inadequacies in the switchover to climate technologies on transport and in buildings."
Emissions are higher in cold temperatures and with more fuel use.
Agora reported that after years of insufficient progress, the building and transport sectors will see emissions rise in 2025.
A cold start last year led to an increase in heating oil and gas consumption, which increased emissions by 3.2% or 3 million?tons.
Transport emissions increased by?1.4% or 2 million tons due to a slight increase in fuel consumption.
SOLAR ENERGY IS A SILVER LINING
Positively, a record year of solar power production offset a poor year for wind and waterpower. Solar energy now accounts for 18% of electricity, surpassing coal and natural gas.
Around 300,000 heat pumps were sold in 2025.
According to the analysis the increasing share of renewables in the power mix has dampened the rise in prices. However, electricity costs at the exchange will still increase by 13% on average to 89 euros (104 dollars) per megawatt-hour in 2025.
(source: Reuters)