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Farmers' union warns exporters to Ukraine that they should prepare for the possibility of closed ports

The analytical department of Ukraine's largest farmer's union UAC warned on Tuesday that Ukrainian exporters and producers should not rely on deep-water port operations resuming any time soon, but instead focus on other options.

In recent months, Russia increased the intensity and number of drone strikes it conducts on Black Sea port infrastructure, particularly in the Odesa area. This effectively blocks a route which used to handle 90 percent of Ukraine's exported goods.

This forced Ukraine to divert cargoes via the Danube River ports and rail to its western border.

Transport via alternate routes can cost up to $50 more per ton than deep-water port, but their capacity is significantly lower.

According to estimates by the Agriculture Ministry, Kyiv is only able to export about half the volume required through Danube port and?by train.

"Avoid deep-water port operations until at least December or January." UAC stated in a report that you should build your trading strategy based on the assumption deep-water port will remain closed.

If you prepare for these challenges, you can overcome them. "Companies should prepare for worst-case scenarios."

Ukraine is one of the world's major exporters and producers of grains, oilseeds, and vegetable oil. Its agricultural exports brought in $22 billion dollars last year and are a vital source of revenue for a state budget that has been stretched by war.

Ukrainian food exports have already decreased and could drop to about 1.7 millions tons in August, compared to at least 4,000,000 tons of food one month prior to the'seaports ban.

According to data from the Agriculture Ministry, grain exports fell by a third in August to?774,000 tons.

According to the ministry, the expected decline in exports as well as the lower farmer incomes that will result from it, will "probably" lead to a decrease in the number of?plantings for the harvest in 2027, especially winter wheat.

Winter wheat is planted in autumn and harvested the summer following. As of September 1, Ukraine harvested 24,7 million tons of grain from 98% of the sowing areas.

(source: Reuters)