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Andy Home: The crisis of aluminum in the ROI: War, tariffs, and a market that is running out of products.

The Iran War is triggering a global crisis on the aluminium market that could have devastating effects in sectors such as construction, packaging and transport.

Even if war ended tomorrow, it could take Emirates Global Aluminium up to one year to recover from damage caused by a missile attack on its Al Taweelah Smelter last month.

The largest production site outside of China, Aluminium?Bahrain has also been?hit, though the extent of damage is not yet known. Alba and Qatar Aluminium had already reduced production prior to the attack due to power shortages.

The Strait of Hormuz is severely restricted, and the production loss could increase as smelters exhaust their raw material stocks.

According to Wood Mackenzie, the global market could face a deficit of up 4 million metric tonnes this year.

Western buyers will be the ones to bear the brunt of this massive supply cut and policymakers may have to make some tough choices in the coming weeks if they wish cushion the impact.

THINK INVENTORY COVER

In the past, the London Metal Exchange was the place to go for "extra metal". In the first decade of the past decade, the registered inventory was over 5 million tons.

LME stock levels have dropped to less than 400,000 tons, with an additional 100,000 tons in the "off-warrant" category.

CME warehouses were also raided. The total deliverable stock has fallen by 70% since January and now only amounts to 1,864 tonnes.

These figures are a lie. Russian metal, that many Western users cannot use because of sanctions imposed following the?invasion of Ukraine', accounted 270,000 tons in LME registered inventory at the end March.

The non-Russian component has been the subject of a dispute between traders. In the first week in March, someone cancelled 98,000 tonnes of Indian aluminium registered on the LME. Then last week, they re-warranted most of them as time-spreads increased.

The benchmark spread between three-months cash and the benchmark cash The market tightened to $95.50 per tonne, the highest since 2007.

Power Constraints

In theory, idle smelter capacities, especially in the U.S., and Europe, could be reactivated in order to alleviate the "squeeze" on metal supplies.

During previous energy crises, however, the majority of this capacity has been taken offline. Electrolysis is used to produce metal in smelters. A typical smelter can consume as much energy as a city of the size Boston.

It seems unlikely that much of the capacity mothballed will be restored, given the impact the Iran War has had on energy prices.

Even before hostilities began in the Gulf, the global lack of affordable energy was forcing many more closures.

In March, the Mozal Aluminium Smelter, which is owned and operated in majority by South32 Australia, was put on care and Maintenance after it failed to secure a commercially viable power supply contract.

Wood Mackenzie says that even if you allow for increased recycled production, and the softer demand caused by the energy impact on manufacturing activities, there is still a significant deficit in the global aluminum market over the next year.

UNPALATABLE CHOICES

The West will be most affected by this deficit, forcing governments to make unpalatable decisions.

Two countries can help to reduce the deficit.

China is the largest producer of aluminium in the world. China is a country that tends to convert most of its metals into semi-manufactured items such as?wire, rod and plate.

The rest of world has spent the last decade building trade barriers to stop the Chinese export flood. Beijing is accused of undermining its competitors.

Western aluminum users do not need more Chinese products at low prices. They require primary metals and alloys.

The only remaining option is Russia, which produces primary metals and a variety of alloys with added value in the Gulf.

After the 2022 invasion, Japanese manufacturers have already started to show signs of returning to Russian supplies.

U.S. buyers and European buyers will need to waive government sanctions in order to follow suit.

The United States' situation is exacerbated by the decision of President Donald Trump to increase import aluminum tariffs up to 50%.

The cost of imported ingots has risen to more than $2,500 per tonne above the LME, which itself is hovering around a four-year high of $3,580 a tonne.

This is a cost-price equation for?now. The longer the Gulf disruption continues, the quicker stocks will deplete.

It may eventually stop being about price and become more about having enough metal for manufacturing orders.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)