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Maguire: Europe's solar surplus hurls the power system into a new, difficult transition phase

Solar power has been a major success story in Europe. Even the most ardent clean energy advocates now recognize that there is a limit to what can be good.

Solar power capacity in Europe has grown faster than any other source of power in the past decade. It has risen by 115% in just a few years, and has triggered a doubled supply of solar-powered electricity flowing through regional grids.

The rapid growth has had a number of?complicated side effects. Solar power is not only replacing fossil fuels, but also increasing steadily. It's changing the way electricity prices in Europe behave and how power markets work.

In order to deal with this disruptive solar flood, Europe’s power companies must now shift their focus from adding capacity to integrating the networks, building storage capacities and operating complex markets in order to ensure that the overall system is fit for purpose for Europe’s energy consumers.

SATURATION OF SYSTEMS?

According to LSEG's data, solar assets in Germany – Europe's largest economy and biggest solar producer – generated a quarter of all utility-supplied electricity in April. This is a record high percentage of that month’s utility mix.

Solar's share in Germany's electricity markets will continue to grow, as the peak solar radiation season still lies ahead. This will place increasing pressure on network managers, who must adjust output from other power sources to balance systems needs.

The power firms can reduce the output of fossil fuel plants to accommodate solar energy, saving money and reducing emissions.

The upswell of solar power during the sunniest times of the day is so extreme that it can make it impossible to maintain system stability by reducing the alternate sources, especially where the baseload generation is slow to adapt.

The market is also distorted by subsidy structures which encourage renewables to remain online regardless of the price.

Negative power prices can be triggered, which may temporarily benefit some consumers of power but can have a negative impact on the balance sheets of almost all power producers.

The tendency of power prices to fall during sunny periods is a fundamental change in the economics of the power market: instead of being paid to generate power, generators must pay the market for it.

DEEP RESISTANCE DAMAGE

These negative price periods are not just a temporary inconvenience.

The long periods of very low or negative prices reduce the earnings of all electricity generators and also increase costs for those who operate dispatchable power stations powered by coal or gas.

Climate watchdogs had previously "celebrated" the regular shut-downs of coal-fired power plants during periods when renewable energy supplies were high, on the basis that less fossil fuel production equals lower emissions in the power sector.

The frequent ramping up of coal plants, often on short notice as in the case of solar output dropping during cloudy periods, can lead to lower efficiency and more emissions per unit power produced compared with plants that are kept running at a constant level.

The operators' costs are also increased by frequent and expensive plant maintenance due to the regular fluctuations in output.

The combination of lower revenue and higher costs makes it difficult for power companies to meet debt service agreements, or obtain additional credit for grid upgrades or expansions.

Price volatility and increased system stress are also a result of the wear and tear that occurs on generation systems due to frantic fluctuations in clean fuel and fossil fuel production. This makes them more vulnerable to power outages and cost increases.

COMPLICATED FIX

It will take many years to integrate the flexibility and resilience necessary into Europe's electricity networks, so they can cope with the ebbs of renewable energy.

Battery capacity must be increased massively to store the excess solar energy generated in the middle of the afternoon.

According to Solar Power Europe, the capacity of Europe's utility scale batteries has grown exponentially in recent years. By 2025, it is estimated that 15 gigawatt-hours will be added.

Battery capacity will need to be increased across a range of time scales, from those able to dispatch power in milliseconds up to those able to plug supply shortages for days.

It will be necessary to upgrade grid equipment across the entire electricity supply chain. Tens of thousands of inverters, and other components are needed to increase grid-forming strength and to manage frequency and voltage.

To stitch together a modern grid, utilities and planners will also need to coordinate in unprecedented ways to ensure that the new transformers and transmission lines are installed on time.

Add to that software upgrades that allow power flows to be changed in milliseconds, and market incentives which drive real-time changes in power usage by key consumers. You have one of the most difficult power system upgrades undertaken.

Massive and extensive upgrades will be needed if Europe wants to successfully transition from an outdated power system heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels to one that is cleaner and more independent.

If done successfully, these upgrades will position the region to enter a new phase in economic growth. This will be underpinned by an increasingly reliable and clean grid powered by renewable energy sources that are cheap and easy to produce. These include the solar and wind farms located within the region.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)