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Oil nears two-week lows as supply worries ease
The oil prices were near their lowest level in over two weeks on Tuesday, thanks to improved Gulf crude supplies and growing hope for a diplomatic solution to the US-Israeli conflict against Iran. Brent crude futures increased 16 cents or 0.16% to $99.41 per barrel at 0809 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate Futures dropped 50 cents or 0.55% to $90.02. Brent hit its lowest level since September 8 at $97.36 in the previous session. WTI hit its lowest level since September 1 on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that his envoys held productive discussions with Iranian mediators to end the conflict. OIL PRICE VOLATILITY RETAINS Nitesh Shah, a commodity strategist at WisdomTree, said that Trump is trying to send out a strong message of good talk. "But, I would caution that the price movements could suddenly change to positive." Three sources familiar with the situation said that Saudi Arabia resumed its East-West Pipeline operations to the Red Sea Tuesday. Saudi Arabia blamed Iraqi militia for drone attacks that forced it to stop crude loadings in Yanbu port on September 11. Since the Middle East conflict has disrupted oil supplies from Saudi Arabia?and their Gulf neighbours?through the Strait?of Hormuz. Riyadh is using the pipeline to reroute approximately 4 million barrels a day to Yanbu. This represents roughly 4% global supply. Saudi Arabia offered to lift more barrels from outside the Strait of Hormuz for Asian refiners on Tuesday. Iraq's oil minister announced on Tuesday that the country is also increasing its oil exports. He said that the country exports more than 3,000,000 bpd and plans to increase exports through Turkey to over 600,000 Bpd. SUPPORT FOR A BETTER OUTLOOK ON SUPPLY A senior Iranian official, who supports the 'improved supply outlook,' said that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen in seven days, if the United States eased military pressure and lifted its blockade of Iranian ports. Industry data revealed that US crude stocks rose by 1.8m barrels during the week ending September 18. This added downward pressure on oil prices. The analysts polled by?by expected a drop. The US Energy Information Administration will release its official weekly inventory numbers at 10:10 a.m. ET (1430 GMT). "A little more crude is making its way to the market, and the East-West Pipeline returning gives everyone some breathing room. The products issue hasn't gone away. Diesel is tight. Jet fuel is scarce. Matt Stanley, director of market engagement for?Kpler, said that the end-user will increasingly feel this. Trump said Tuesday that he supported the idea of a diesel import ban to help lower prices, which have reached record levels due to a global shortage. Analysts and market watchers say that such a ban would not do much to lower energy prices, and could even worsen economic and supply disruptions across the globe.
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Officials alter Danube entry procedure to address Ukrainian shipping queue
Shippers announced on Wednesday that authorities will clear?vessels bound to Danube ports through the Sulina Canal, while they are still in Black Sea, instead of processing them inside the canal. This is a?effort?to eliminate a two week queue. After Russian attacks, Ukraine's Black Sea port, which handled 90% of its exports, was effectively blocked. Benefits: More vessels can enter Sulina Canal during the day. Vessels are no longer dependent on berths at Sulina. There is less waiting time and less unnecessary maneuvering," said Katerina Kononenko. Due to bureaucratic procedures and the high volume of traffic, there are dozens of vessels waiting in line for the Sulina Canal. The wait times have exceeded two weeks. Ukraine is the largest grain exporter in the world. This month, shippers reported that the long waits and congestion to enter the Danube or return to the Black Sea extended the grain delivery time from Ukraine to Egypt, a major buyer, from 12 days to over a month, which threatened profitability. Consultancy ASAP Agri stated this week that coaster freight rates on grain shipments to Egypt from Ukraine's Danube ports had stabilized at about $100 per ton. On September 11, shipping costs were $105 per ton, compared to $30 on July 11 when Ukraine's Black Sea port was still operational. Ukrainian authorities said that the Danube port could export at least 500,000 tons per month. Official data shows that Ukraine exported?930,000 tonnes of grain in September, compared to 1.78 million tonnes in September 2025.
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Ethiopian Airlines suspends flight to Tigray after taking over Mekelle Airport
Local sources claim that Ethiopian Airlines halted flights to the northern Tigray region of Ethiopia on Wednesday, after Tigrayan troops seized the airport at Mekelle's regional capital from the federal police. State-owned carrier announced on social media the suspension of flights to Mekelle, Shire and Axum "due to current conditions in the Tigray Region," without providing any further information. Two local sources reported that Tigrayan fighters, who fought against the federal government during a civil war in 2020-2022 that resulted hundreds of thousands deaths, had seized control of the Mekelle Airport from federal police over night. Requests for comment from the Prime Minister?Abiy Ahmad, the federal government 'and the Tigray People's Liberation Front' (TPLF), a political party in Tigray that governs the country, were not immediately answered. The TPLF announced Sunday that it formed an alliance across?Ethiopia with six other armed group aiming to overthrow Abiy's Government. This move came after months of deteriorating relationships between the TPLF government and the federal government. Both sides signed a peace agreement in November 2022, to end the war. However, each side has accused the other of breaking the agreement. In May, the TPLF seized the control of the'region's government by the interim administration set up under the peace agreement. According to data from the Armed conflict?Location and Event Data project, the?Ethiopian army has conducted several drone attacks against Tigrayan troops in recent months. The federal government has not yet commented on the reported attacks, but last week the military announced that almost 300 Tigrayan combatants had surrendered.
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Denmark's central banks expects a 4% growth in GDP by 2026, driven by the pharmaceutical industry
The central bank of Denmark has raised its GDP forecasts for both this year and 2027 from 1.8% to 2.3%. Nationalbanken stated in a press release that "Growth was driven by an unprecedented increase in the pharmaceutical industries' output abroad during the first half of the year." Novo Nordisk has been an engine of the Danish economy since its peak in 2024. However, shares have dropped sharply ever since. The Danish government attributed the higher than expected growth in the Danish economy in August to the launch of Novo’s weight-loss Wegovy pills in the United States earlier this year. In a statement, Governor Christian Kettel Thomsen stated that the Danish economy has been able to withstand global turmoil so far. "We expect strong growth in GDP this year. But there are no signs that wage or price pressure will increase. This is because a significant part of the growth comes from overseas production, which only uses Danish labour and capital in a limited way. Denmark is home to global companies like Maersk Shipping, Carlsberg Brewery, Lego, and Vestas, among others.
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Wall Street Journal, September 23,
These are the most popular stories from?the Wall Street Journal. These stories have not been verified and?has no way of vouching for?their accuracy. - JPMorgan Chase has recently looked at a plan to help ease an old point of contention between credit-card partners like airlines and retailers. This plan would allow private?credits to obtain a new consumer debt. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said that he asked President Trump for a 'winter package' of new military equipment and believes that the US will pursue an agreement to stop attacks on energy infrastructure. Qantas Airways will launch a service that is nonstop between Sydney and New York by 2028. This will reduce the journey time from more than three hours. The activist hedge fund Jana Partners is urging Six Flags Entertainment, a theme park operator, to consider a possible sale. Since August, traders?on the Kalshi prediction market have traded almost one million times in the same?market. This unusual activity has attracted the attention of both federal regulators as well as traders.
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New York Times Business News - September 23,
These are the top stories from the business pages of the New York Times. ? The?reports have not been?verified and the?reports are not guaranteed to be accurate. Anthropic has launched Claude Opus 5.5. It is a new AI that it claims to be its'safest ever.' This means it will be less likely to take actions which cannot undo or act outside of the limits given. As part of Project Sunrise, Qantas Airways plans to launch the first nonstop commercial flight from New York to Sydney by mid-2028. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has halted the state's permits for data centres until an audit can be performed to assess the impact of the projects on the water and power grid. The federal judge dismissed Michigan's antitrust lawsuit against four major oil firms, rejecting the claims that they?increased costs for residents by suppressing...the development of renewable energies and information regarding global warming risks.
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After the Iran conflict, crude oil imports to Asia hit a high in September but remain weak
Even with the increase, imports of crude oils in Asia were still 13% lower than pre-conflict. According to data compiled and analyzed by commodity analysts,?Kpler, the world's largest oil-consuming region, is on course to import 23,96 million barrels of crude oil per day in September. This represents an increase from August's 23.38 millions bpd, which was also the highest since February. Kpler has recorded a trend of increasing crude imports in Asia since April, when they were at their lowest level in over 10 years. The average oil imports for the three-month period ended in February was 27,55 million barrels per day. On February 28, the United States and Israel began an aerial bombardment and missile campaign against Iran, resulting in Tehran's threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway carried around 20% of the global crude and refined product prior to the beginning of the war. The strait is still contested, with Iran striking vessels from time to time and the US Navy trying to ensure the safe passage of tankers coming from Gulf exporters like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates?and Iraq. There has been some disagreement over the exact volume of oil that leaves the Strait of Hormuz, and Saudi Arabia's Yanbu Port on the Red Sea. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright claimed on several occasions that up to 15 million barrels per day (bpd) were leaving the Middle East. However, tanker tracking services reported lower levels. The crude oil imports from the Middle East are primarily destined for?Asia, with smaller amounts going to Africa, Europe, and North America. If Wright's claims are true, and 15 million barrels per day have left the Middle East, as he claimed in early August, this oil should have reached ports throughout Asia by the end of September. According to Kpler's data, Asia's Middle East imports were 12,56 million bpd during September. This is up from 11,66 million in August, and over 5 million bpd higher than the low post-conflict of 7,12 million in April. The September estimate, however, is still 3.53 million bpd less than the average of 16.09 million for the three months preceding the conflict. While there are some facts that support Wright's claim, it is important to note that Asia still receives significantly less crude oil from the Middle East than before US President Donald Trump launched his war against Iran. Wright claimed that 15 million barrels per day of oil were exported. However, even with this estimate, the exports are still 3 million barrels a day below pre-war levels. The situation, in other words, is worse now than before the beginning of the conflict, despite all the efforts of US Navy to keep the Strait of Hormuz opened and the risks taken by oil companies and shippers, traders and crews to cross the Strait. Saudi Arabia's East-West Oil Pipeline was closed recently after an alleged strike from Iraq. This will result in lower Middle East imports for October. However, they could recover by November once the pipeline is repaired and operating again. The crude oil?flows to Asia, which are still restricted, continue to be reflected in the flows of refined products. Like crude oil, Asia's imports for light and middle distillates also showed a slight recovery in September, but are still well below their pre-conflict level. Kpler data shows that a total of 5.84 millions bpd light and middle distillates is expected to arrive in Asian ports by September. This is up from 5.25million bpd last month, but it's still over 1 million below the 7.06million bpd produced in the three-month period leading up to conflict. Due to the weakness of refined fuel imports, diesel, jet fuel and gasoil prices remain near record highs compared with global crude benchmarks like Brent futures. On 'Wednesday', the front-month contract traded around $99 per barrel in Asia, while Singapore gasoil – a building block of diesel – was $173.84 per barrel, and gasoline was $139.60. Prior to the Iran War, the price premium of these fuels was typically between $10 and 20 per barrel. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X. These are the views of the columnist, an author for.
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Ninepoint ignores political rhetoric and launches ETF focused on the energy interdependence between US and Canada
Ninepoint Capital, a Canadian asset manager, is challenging the economic nationalism of both the United States and Canada as well as the trade war that has been escalating between them by launching an exchange-traded funds on Tuesday. The fund will highlight the interdependence in energy between the two countries. Ninepoint North American Energy Independence ETF, the Toronto-based firm's first ETF to be listed in America, is designed to provide cross-border exposure for an investment theme Ninepoint coCEO John Wilson stated pre-dated any individual politician and will outlast them. Wilson said it would be "naive" to believe that headlines will disappear in the next couple of years. He added that it would be shortsighted to ignore the degree to which energy industries are already intertwined in both countries, especially at a moment when AI is driving demand for more and reliable sources of electricity. This translates to a heightened demand for natural gas, uranium and strategic minerals such as nickel that are used in the battery industry. According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), more than 90% Canadian crude oil exports are bound for US markets. Many US refineries are heavily dependent on Canadian heavy crude. CER reported that approximately 85% of Canadian energy production is exported. Canada is also working to diversify energy exports, both through a growing LNG sector that targets Asian customers and through the Trans Mountain pipeline which transports Canadian heavy oil from the west coast of British Columbia for export overseas. Wilson points out that this will not have a dramatic impact on the level of integration in the near future. Conflict with Iran has highlighted the need for "friendly" crude oil sources. The resultant near-total closure of Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes is a major factor. Data centers, which are required by AI hyperscalers, will require more electricity, most of it generated from natural gas. Wilson continued, "A lot of these technologies would not exist to invest in without the?supply of Canadian raw materials." The ETF's investment will be in 50 or more stocks in the US, Canada, and Mexico. The exact balance is determined by the opportunities. Wilson calculates that two-thirds (or about 67%) of the oil and natural gas producers it will invest in are based in the US. Canadian pipeline companies, mining enterprises, and companies producing uranium and copper, which are needed to electrify North America's economy, will also make up the majority of these?assets. Ninepoint offers several other Canadian ETFs that offer simple?equity-based portfolios as well as options-based products. Ninepoint's other funds, including private credit offerings, have been struggling with funding shortages in recent years. This forced Ninepoint to suspend redemptions. Wilson stated that Ninepoint has replaced cash distributions by additional units in order to provide liquidity and value to investors. To date, these funds have paid about $225,000,000 in redemptions.
Andy Home: The fallout from the war in Iran spreads to copper, nickel and other metals
The Iran war caused turmoil on the global aluminum market, but the impact is now spreading to the copper and nickel supply chain.
The conduit is sulfur - a byproduct of the Gulf oil and gas industry that has been trapped since the Strait of Hormuz shut on February 28. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, this region is responsible for a quarter or more of global oil and gas production.
Sulfuric acid is a key input for ?copper miners using solvent-extraction technology on oxide ores and for nickel production from high-pressure-acid-leach (HPAL) ?plants.
Unfortunately, sulfur is used in fertilizers. This sector accounts for two-thirds or more of the global demand, and it's one that governments prioritize over all else.
China, which is the largest producer of sulfuric acid in the world, will begin to ban exports next month. According to Argus media, Turkey has already banned exports, and India may do the same.
As a result, the sulfur shortage is intensifying and prices are rising to new records.
A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL COPER THREAT
According to the International Copper Study Group, around a fifth (25%) of primary refined copper is produced by solvent extraction and electrowinning operations. These use sulfuric acid, a leaching agent, as a leaching reagent.
The Democratic Republic of Congo has a?specially high level of exposure. The SX-EW process accounts for about half of the copper produced in the second largest producer of the world. This country imports most of its sulfur from the Gulf.
As import prices rise, some shipments have been cancelled. Miners are already reducing consumption in order to conserve?chemical stock.
China's ban on exports could cause similar problems for Chilean producers. Morgan Stanley reports that Chile produces around 1.125 metric tons copper using the SX-EW method and depends on China for about 20% of its sulfuric acid needs.
Leaching is a slow process, so there will be some time before production rates are affected. Chile produces its own sulfuric acids as a result of copper smelting. This provides some protection against disruptions in imports.
This?cushion', however, could be a problem in China.
Copper smelters in the country are increasingly dependent on sulfuric acids as a source of revenue. The treatment charges for converting concentrate into refined metal are at historical lows, and even trading at negative figures. This has thrown conventional smelter economics to the wind.
The export ban will likely stall, or even reverse, the rise in sulfur prices domestically.
This is good news for the agricultural sector, but bad news for copper smelters. Some of them are expected to reduce production or undergo maintenance in the coming weeks and months.
INDONESIAN Nickel Producers
Indonesia, which is the largest nickel producer in the world, imports around 75% its sulfur requirements from the Middle East. The country also imports sulfuric acids from China.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the HPAL production requires 25-30 tons of acid (equivalent to 10 tons sulfur) to produce one ton mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), a product intermediate containing nickel and cobalt.
Macquarie estimates that MHP production was at around?450,000 tonnes last year, and is expected to increase by another 100,000 tons in 2019 as new projects ramp-up.
Nickel production will be affected faster by the sulfur-squeeze than the copper market. Indonesian producers are reducing production rates because stocks are already low.
COST IMPACT
The impact of the sulfur squeeze on nickel and copper production is yet to be seen. The impact on production costs, however, is more certain.
Macquarie estimates the increase in sulfur prices since the beginning of the year added $4,000 to the Indonesian HPAL nickel costs. The cost curve has risen to $14,500 to 18,000 per tonne.
This is what explains the sharp increase in nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange, which reached an 11-week peak of $18,655 a ton this week.
Natixis calculates, on the other hand, that sulfur costs Congo's SXEW copper producers 20% of their cash production costs. According to the bank, every $100 increase in sulfur price is equivalent to a 4% increase in cash costs.
These numbers have now helped feed into copper's bull story, lifting the LME 3-month price above $13,000 per ton for the first time since a month.
It is clear that much depends now on whether or not the just-announced ceasefire of 10 days leads to a lasting deal of peace and the full reopening of Strait of Hormuz.
Copper and nickel producers would still be in competition with agriculture for sulfur. In this particular race, there's only one winner.
Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)