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Andy Home: The fallout from the war in Iran spreads to copper, nickel and other metals

The Iran war caused turmoil on the global aluminum market, but the impact is now spreading to the copper and nickel supply chain.

The conduit is sulfur - a byproduct of the Gulf oil and gas industry that has been trapped since the Strait of Hormuz shut on February 28. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, this region is responsible for a quarter or more of global oil and gas production.

Sulfuric acid is a key input for ?copper miners using solvent-extraction technology on oxide ores and for nickel production from high-pressure-acid-leach (HPAL) ?plants.

Unfortunately, sulfur is used in fertilizers. This sector accounts for two-thirds or more of the global demand, and it's one that governments prioritize over all else.

China, which is the largest producer of sulfuric acid in the world, will begin to ban exports next month. According to Argus media, Turkey has already banned exports, and India may do the same.

As a result, the sulfur shortage is intensifying and prices are rising to new records.

A MULTI-DIMENSIONAL COPER THREAT

According to the International Copper Study Group, around a fifth (25%) of primary refined copper is produced by solvent extraction and electrowinning operations. These use sulfuric acid, a leaching agent, as a leaching reagent.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has a?specially high level of exposure. The SX-EW process accounts for about half of the copper produced in the second largest producer of the world. This country imports most of its sulfur from the Gulf.

As import prices rise, some shipments have been cancelled. Miners are already reducing consumption in order to conserve?chemical stock.

China's ban on exports could cause similar problems for Chilean producers. Morgan Stanley reports that Chile produces around 1.125 metric tons copper using the SX-EW method and depends on China for about 20% of its sulfuric acid needs.

Leaching is a slow process, so there will be some time before production rates are affected. Chile produces its own sulfuric acids as a result of copper smelting. This provides some protection against disruptions in imports.

This?cushion', however, could be a problem in China.

Copper smelters in the country are increasingly dependent on sulfuric acids as a source of revenue. The treatment charges for converting concentrate into refined metal are at historical lows, and even trading at negative figures. This has thrown conventional smelter economics to the wind.

The export ban will likely stall, or even reverse, the rise in sulfur prices domestically.

This is good news for the agricultural sector, but bad news for copper smelters. Some of them are expected to reduce production or undergo maintenance in the coming weeks and months.

INDONESIAN Nickel Producers

Indonesia, which is the largest nickel producer in the world, imports around 75% its sulfur requirements from the Middle East. The country also imports sulfuric acids from China.

Morgan Stanley estimates that the HPAL production requires 25-30 tons of acid (equivalent to 10 tons sulfur) to produce one ton mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), a product intermediate containing nickel and cobalt.

Macquarie estimates that MHP production was at around?450,000 tonnes last year, and is expected to increase by another 100,000 tons in 2019 as new projects ramp-up.

Nickel production will be affected faster by the sulfur-squeeze than the copper market. Indonesian producers are reducing production rates because stocks are already low.

COST IMPACT

The impact of the sulfur squeeze on nickel and copper production is yet to be seen. The impact on production costs, however, is more certain.

Macquarie estimates the increase in sulfur prices since the beginning of the year added $4,000 to the Indonesian HPAL nickel costs. The cost curve has risen to $14,500 to 18,000 per tonne.

This is what explains the sharp increase in nickel prices on the London Metal Exchange, which reached an 11-week peak of $18,655 a ton this week.

Natixis calculates, on the other hand, that sulfur costs Congo's SXEW copper producers 20% of their cash production costs. According to the bank, every $100 increase in sulfur price is equivalent to a 4% increase in cash costs.

These numbers have now helped feed into copper's bull story, lifting the LME 3-month price above $13,000 per ton for the first time since a month.

It is clear that much depends now on whether or not the just-announced ceasefire of 10 days leads to a lasting deal of peace and the full reopening of Strait of Hormuz.

Copper and nickel producers would still be in competition with agriculture for sulfur. In this particular race, there's only one winner.

Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.

(source: Reuters)