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Manishi Raymondchaudhuri: The thaw in the Sino-Indian relationship will be a major test for economic growth
India wants to move out of China's shadow and improve diplomatic relations. But the more it pushes the more its dependency on China, its wealthier neighbor, becomes apparent. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi met in New Delhi in December. It was Xi's very first trip to India in seven years. Both leaders agreed to repair the damage caused by the deadly hand-to -hand clashes that occurred in 2020 along their shared, but poorly defined Himalayan border. Since the two Asian giants agreed last year to end their military standoff, there are other signs of warming relations. Since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, direct flights between Indian cities and Chinese 'cities' have been resumed. Visa services in China are also expanding. These measures are only a first step. Handshakes and plane rides will not solve the problem of long-standing trade dependency and strategic distrust. The economic relationship between the two Asian giants remains profoundly asymmetric. According to the World Bank, China's share in global manufacturing value added was 28% by 2025. This is far greater than India's 3%. India's export situation is also lopsided. China's 16.3% of global merchandise exports by 2025 will be a massively greater share than India's 1.7%. India will import goods from China worth $116 billion dollars more than it exports in 2025. In August of this year, India's deficit was already at $91 billion. It was on course to surpass the record set last year. CAPTIVE SUPPLY CHAINS It's not just that India imports from China more. Many of these imports are essential to Indian industry. The three largest import categories are electrical and electronic equipment (EEE), machinery and chemicals. These goods are used as intermediates by Indian manufacturers. India imports more from China the more it exports. The dilemma is illustrated by smartphones and generic drugs. India has made great progress in expanding pharmaceutical production and assembling electronic devices, but many of the inputs and components needed by both sectors are still sourced from China. This dependence has broad strategic implications. Beijing's introduction of export licensing requirements for seven heavy rare Earths in April 2025, exposed India's automotive manufacturing and defense sectors to vulnerabilities. India's manufacturing problems are not all due to foreign competition. According to the latest Economic Survey, India's R&D spending in 2024 was just 0.64%, which is significantly lower than its?Asian counterparts, partly due to private sector underinvestment. The problem is compounded by the shortage of skilled workers. Foxconn's decision to withdraw Chinese staff from their Indian iPhone factories by 2025 showed how advanced manufacturing is dependent on foreign expertise. INDIA'S FIXES New Delhi is trying to correct the imbalance. India has recently eased restrictions on Chinese foreign direct investments (FDI), allowing them to own up to 10% of Indian companies. The government announced simultaneously that it would expedite the clearance of investment proposals within 60 days in five high-tech areas, provided they were structured as joint ventures and had majority Indian ownership. India's exports to China increased by 40% from April to August. The increase in exports is largely due to industrial machinery, automotive components and printed circuit boards as well as smartphones and other electronic products. The export boom should not be misinterpreted as a fundamental change in the relationship. India's electronic growth is still heavily dependent on Chinese imports. Smartphone manufacturing, India's largest export success story, is still only 18-20% local. The AI boom in Northeast Asia is generating positive spillovers to the subcontinent. Indian firms are picking up sub-components from Chinese tech giants who are facing a surge in hardware demand. This dynamic, however, reinforces the importance of Chinese supply chains. TRUST DEFICIT IS PERSISENT In order for China-bound FDI to reach India and for technology transfer to take place, it is important to answer the question: What does India have to offer? China is not taking up the bait. The obvious answer to this question is 'access to a large, young market with a low-cost labor pool'. Also, New Delhi has various incentives for industrial growth, including tax breaks, payouts linked to production, and capital subsidies. China's pressure to its leading companies, which includes EVs, batteries and solar energy equipment as well as electronic equipment, shows how Beijing protects its most sophisticated capabilities. The 3,800 km (2,400 miles) of disputed border in Himalayas continue to cast a cloud over the relationship. The two countries have agreed to a gradual, multi-year stabilisation plan. Diplomats met in Beijing last August and pledged a "fair settlement that is reasonable for both parties". However, there does not appear to be a resolution imminent. Both governments seem willing to expand economic cooperation for the time being. India's challenge does not just lie in reducing its imports from China. The challenge for India is to use a renewed engagement with China to develop its own domestic capabilities. The relationship between Asia's largest economies until then will be a one-sided affair. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
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Alaska LNG savings justify billions of investment, developer claims
Alaska LNG's developer claimed that the project would be competitive with US Gulf Coast competitors because it will have access to stranded natural gas and shorter shipping routes into Asia. This is despite some analysts' concerns about the massive infrastructure costs of 'the project. Tim Fitzpatrick said in an email sent to the project developer Glenfarne on Sunday that the cost to ship gas from Alaska's North Slope to Asia would be at least 60% cheaper than the Gulf Coast. The project would transport gas from Alaska's north slope through an 800-mile pipeline, to a plant that exports liquefied gas in southern Alaska. The question is whether the lower shipping costs are worth the billions needed to build infrastructure. The estimated cost for the project is $44,5 billion to $54,5 billion. This translates into?roughly $2 billion to $2.7 million per million tons of LNG capacity (MTPA). This is significantly more than other Gulf Coast projects that have recently been approved. The developer Glenfarne claims that this comparison is inaccurate because it does not include the costs of the pipelines and treatment infrastructure required to bring the North Slope gas stranded to the market. Fitzpatrick stated that the delivery costs for the?Alaska Liquefied Natural Gas project are about $1.4 billion each MTPA. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, US LNG projects have been approved at an average price of $1 billion or less per mtpa. Glenfarne says that the project's competitiveness is best measured in terms of delivered LNG costs, rather than upfront expenditure. Fitzpatrick stated that the company has so far identified customers for 13 millions tons of LNG per year and needs 16,000,000 tons per annum to support project finance. Trump said on Friday that South Korea would help finance the LNG project in Alaska as part of an investment package worth $200 billion for US projects. Seoul, however, quickly indicated that the role of South Korea in the Alaska LNG project was not yet determined.
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US FAA: Boeing 737 MAX software bug poses no safety concern
Federal Aviation Administration'said Friday that a panel of experts determined that a'software glitch in certain Boeing 737 MAX Flight Computers pose no safety concerns, clearing the?way for approval of a broader version?of a bestselling narrow body jet. This decision will remove a long-delayed obstacle to the certification of the MAX 10 – the largest variant in the 737 MAX Family – which had been delayed by years. This should ease the concerns of airlines who fly the MAX 7 which also uses the same software and was certified by FAA in august. The FAA stated that the decision by the Corrective action Review Board?that?met in Seattle on?Friday was based on "pilots retaining full control of?aircraft, and the indications given to the flight crew were clear and unambiguous." The FAA announced earlier this week that it would delay?certification for the MAX 10 until an analysis was completed of the software problem, which could prevent pilots?from?accessing automated guidance during a landing scenario. Aviation officials believe that the MAX 10 could now be certified by the end of this month. Southwest Airlines could have also been affected by the issue, as the MAX 7 aircraft that was just certified uses the same software. The MAX 10 was also ordered by Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, and other large airlines. Jefferies stated in a research report that the MAX '10 can be certified by the end of this year. Boeing has estimated nearly 1,500 MAX 10s are on order. The FAA stated that one software version could increase pilot workload when a pilot "aborts" a landing, then applies power and climbs for another 'landing attempt. A FAA official stated that Boeing would issue a bulletin on how to recognize the situation and what to do in it. The FAA will then issue a Special Information Bulletin about Airworthiness to US airlines and foreign regulators so they are aware of Boeing’s bulletin. While the analysis was in progress, major US airlines chose not to use this version of the software.
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Zimbabwean businessman Chivayo who was close to the ruling elite killed in helicopter crash
Wicknell 'Chivayo', his wife, and other victims were killed in a helicopter crash on Wednesday, according to Emmerson Mnangagwa. Mnangagwa said in a statement to X on Thursday he is "in deep grief and shock", and Kenyan President William Ruto, who posted a different post on the same day, called Chivayo a friend and expressed his sadness at his death. Chivayo, who has cultivated close relationships with Mnangagwa, and other African leaders by posting pictures on social media, also displayed luxury vehicles, designer clothes and lavish gifts. Zimbabwe's The Herald reported that investigations?into this crash are currently underway and a statement detailing the findings will be made in due course. The police did not comment on the cause of the accident, but Paul Nyathi, the spokesperson for the authorities said that DNA tests were being conducted because the bodies had been severely damaged. Chivayo was often cited by critics as an example for a small, elite class who benefited from contracts with the government under Zimbabwe's ZANUPF party. He denied accusations of corruption. Chivayo spent several years in prison after being convicted of money laundering in 2005. He was arrested for?the alleged misuse of a $5.6million advance payment linked to a solar energy project in 2018. But a magistrate struck off the 'case in 2023 citing delays by the prosecutors. Mnangagwa again attracted scrutiny in 2024 after describing his company as Starlink’s exclusive partner in Zimbabwe. This prompted the telecommunications regulator, to clarify that it was only one of many approved resellers.
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Israel's Netanyahu: Flydubai co-pilot underwent radical Islamist endoctrination
Israel's Prime Minister said that the co-pilot who attempted to crash a plane by stabbing the captain had been radicalized and clearly suicidal. The flydubai flight FZ1073, which flew from Dubai to Tel Aviv on Wednesday, was spared disaster after the injured captain managed to open the cockpit door and allow passengers to subdue their attacker. The plane with more than 170 passengers on board was landed at Tabuk Airport in Saudi Arabia by a reserve crew. We know that he was radicalized by islamists. In an interview with Fox News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that this appears to be what we gather from his personal data. According to two Israeli security officials, Israel's initial assessment is that the copilot, who Israel identified as an Omani, likely acted alone. However, the investigation is still ongoing. Flightradar24, a flight tracking website, reports that the plane plunged more than 14,000 feet during the incident while it was flying from the United Arab Emirates towards Israel. Netanyahu said, "It was obvious that the copilot was suicidal." Netanyahu stated that it appeared likely that the man was planning to bring down the aircraft. He said that "the Islamist traits, the radicalization found in his past, is a pretty good clue." But again, I haven't made any final conclusions. "But that's what we know now," he said. The United Arab Emirates have begun investigations to determine the circumstances and motives, and to determine "whether or not the incident was linked to terrorist activities or purposes or involved any prior planning or directions", according to the UAE's state news agency. ATTACKER IDENTIFIED AN OMANI NATIONAL Yossi Shelley told the Israeli envoy in the UAE that it was still too early to make any conclusions and that no motive had yet been established. A second Israeli official stated that Israel did not receive all of the information requested from Saudi Arabia and that Israeli intelligence services Mossad, and Shin Bet were also investigating the incident. Saudi Arabia's media office has not responded to requests for comment immediately, nor have they made any statements about their investigations. Netanyahu identified the attacker's nationality as Omani. Omani authorities are yet to comment. We have restrictions that state that you cannot have pilots who are from countries without diplomatic relations with Israel. Netanyahu said that it was clear that he had been able to do so. In an interview with Fox News Netanyahu stated that the attacker is being investigated in Saudi Arabia, and that he believes he will be sent to the UAE. When asked if there were any signs of Iranian involvement in the conflict, Netanyahu replied that it was still too early to tell. Israel has not made any official statements about Iranian involvement. Two Israeli security officials claimed that Israel has not yet identified any Iranian involvement. Israel Defence Minister Israel Katz stated on Wednesday that Israel’s preliminary information indicated the co-pilot intended to crash the aircraft, describing him?as a terrorist. Netanyahu, however, only described it as "a serious incident". The permanent Iranian mission at Geneva has not responded to the request for comment. SECURITY FEARS AHEAD OF ISRAELI ELSTION Israel's security was a major issue in the campaigning for the first elections since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. In February, the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran, in a conflict which quickly spread to the Gulf of Aden and Lebanon where Israel is fighting Iran-backed militant Hezbollah. Both Netanyahu and Indian PM Narendra Modi have described the captain of flight FZ1073, an Indian, Smit Machchhar, as a hero. The Indian Embassy in the UAE reported on X that the pilot was doing well. Israel also praised passengers who subdued the attacker. Yaniv Haun, one of those who incapacitated an attacker, described running to the cockpit when the plane nosedived. "We pulled out the assailant, I pulled out. "We took control after I got him out. I lifted the yoke, steering control, and straightened out the plane a little," he told reporters on his return to Israel.
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Canada fast tracks oil pipeline to diversify economy and divert away from US
Canada will speed up the approval process of a new proposed crude oil export pipeline that would run along its west coast. The project could generate over C$20 billion in GDP annually, according to Prime Minister Mark 'Carney. The pipeline announced in July is an important part of Carney’s plan to diversify the US economy and lessen the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. Carney stated that Ottawa will officially list the Pacific Link Pipeline as a?project of national interest', allowing it to proceed through a single regulatory review process at the federal level. Ottawa, he said, aimed to finish the process by September 1, 2020. He told reporters at Fort McMurray in Alberta, the hub of the oil sands sector, that a pipeline to the West Coast was part of his mission to transform the economy and double non-U.S. imports within the next decade. Ottawa claims that the 1 million barrels a day project will create 140.000 jobs, generate more than C$20 billion per year in GDP and C$100 Billion in government revenues by 2060. Canada currently has just one east-west oil export pipeline in Canada, the 890,000-barrel-per-day Trans Mountain pipeline. The pipeline expansion was completed in 2024. However, it is already operating at full capacity. Since years, Canada exports more than 90% its crude oil to the United States through pipelines. A new oil export pipe could make Canada the world's largest energy supplier, as Asia’s top importing countries look for oil outside of the Middle East following the Iran conflict. Trans Mountain Corp, a government-owned company, will build the pipeline in conjunction with Pembina Pipeline Corp. Alberta estimates that it will cost between C$35,2 billion and C$43.7billion. The federal government will own the majority of the shares, followed by the government of Alberta. The federal government and the government?of Alberta will own a majority of the shares. Environmentalists and Indigenous groups have opposed previous oil pipeline projects across Canada. This has led to the cancellation of certain projects, and cost overruns or construction delays in others.
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Oil giants rush in to help Italy's Meloni reduce energy costs by introducing fuel price caps
Kuwait's energy firm,?Q8, will cap the price of Italian petrol at the pump for a month beginning October 1. This follows similar commitments by Italy's Eni as well as?Azerbaijan SOCAR. Market analysts have interpreted the moves as an attempt to curry favor with Rome's government and discourage it from imposing windfall taxes on energy company profits. This was something that Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, and other prominent politicians had proposed. Giorgia Melons is scrambling for resources to help families, firms and businesses cope with the rising energy costs. She's preparing to present her government's budget 2027 in October. It will be her last presentation before an upcoming election next year. Q8. Italy said in a press release that its cap would generate "tangible" benefits for motorists but didn't specify the price. Meloni, in a press release, said: "I'd like to thank Kuwait as well as the group operating the Q8 stations that operate in Italy for listening to the Italian government's request to energy companies about capping fuel prices." SOCAR and Eni have capped diesel prices at EUR2.19 ($2.48) a litre since Monday, while petrol is priced at EUR1.99 per litre. Equita and Intermonte, two brokers who provide brokerage services to energy companies and their clients, wrote in client reports that this initiative would reduce the risk of new taxation on windfall profits. Germany, Spain Portugal, Italy and Poland are calling for a windfall tax to be imposed on energy companies across the EU. They warn that oil prices are rising at a rapid rate, fueling voter unrest over the cost of living. Giorgetti is not ruling out the introduction of a domestic windfall-tax rather than waiting on a joint initiative. The National?Consumers' Union of Italy welcomed Q8's decision, stating that about half of Italy’s network of fuel stations will now be imposing price caps. The consumer group stated that the challenge is to "prevent the abuse" of dominant market positions, and to ensure that independent fuel stations are not squeezed out or forced to shut down. According to data from the industry ministry, price caps have had little impact on lowering fuel prices. The self-service price for petrol was EUR2.126 per 1 litre, down from EUR2.159 the previous day. Diesel prices were also slightly lower, at EUR2.335, compared to EUR2.377. The price of petrol on the motorway network was EUR2.180 and diesel EUR2.383.
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TSA officers are not allowed to sit down during ID checks in US airports
The US Transportation Security Administration and a major US airport union announced on Tuesday that officers of the US Transportation Security Administration will not be able to'sit while checking IDs' at uS airport checkpoints. The TSA has removed chairs from checkpoints. According to the American Federation of Government Employees TSA Council 100 which represents workers, the removal is "a disregard for workers' safety and rights" and the chairs are "basic ergonomic and safety support to officers who stand and walk all day on hard surfaces." TSA announced the decision and said: "This welcome shift reinforces our security posture as well as?our commitment towards hospitality by keeping these officers alert and on their toes." To perform their vital role in national security, all officers must meet the fitness for duty requirements. In April, President Donald Trump proposed cutting 9,400 employees and just over $1.5 billion or about 20% from the budget of the TSA, which has 60,000 employees. Trump has also proposed that smaller airports use private security. This would reduce the TSA's payroll by over 4,500 jobs, and is a step towards privatizing the agency, which was created in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks. Since years, about 20 airports have used private security screening, including those located in San Francisco and Kansas City, as well as Sarasota (Florida) and San Francisco. The US Senate voted in August to 'confirm' David Cummins as the new head of TSA. Cummins is a senior Vice President at Serco, an international company based in UK that provides public services to governments. Trump fired TSA chief David Pekoske in 2025 on his first day in office and didn't nominate a successor for 16 months. The government shutdown forced 50,000 TSA workers to work without pay for six weeks. This caused major disruptions including four-hour or longer airport security lines. CNN announced the new security procedures on Tuesday.
Poland and the Baltics protect infrastructure in case of a Russian false flag attack
Russia's NATO northern neighbours tighten security around dams and power plants, as they grow increasingly concerned that Moscow may stage a "false-flag" attack using Ukrainian drones.
Last week, Lithuania claimed that Moscow was considering a staged attack. Poland, Latvia and Estonia?also warned against acts of sabotage in order to test NATO response during a time when the U.S. commitment towards the Western military alliance has been questioned.
Last month, Kremlin spokesperson?Dmitry Peskov? said that warnings about Russian clandestine attack are "scare tales" used to justify military action against Russia.
Poland and the Baltic States, all of which border Russia, and have found Ukrainian drones already on their territories, do not take any chances.
Robertas Kaunas, Lithuanian Minister of Defence, said: "We're not naive. We see the information. We read between the lines. And we do our homework."
The prime minister, four officials from the intelligence community and companies in the region and he shared details about intelligence assessments and the measures being taken to protect the infrastructure.
Kaunas stated, "We constantly exchange information on the next steps with our intelligence services."
The riot police and military take up positions
Last month, Lithuania sent the military to support riot police as they secured its liquefied gas import terminal, oil products terminal and a vital power link with Poland.
Kaunas said: "We're clearly signaling, that if necessary, we'll defend ourselves".
In an interview, Andris Kulbergs, the Prime Minister of Latvia, said that the country has enhanced security around critical infrastructure. This includes the Daugava River dam near Riga, and the Incukalns gas storage facility underground.
He said that a hybrid threat was more likely to occur than before.
In May, Russia accused the Baltic States of planning to allow Ukrainian drones to attack Russia from their territories and promised to retaliate. This prompted denials, protests and concerns that Moscow might stage an attack in order to justify its response.
An official from the Baltic intelligence agency said that?assessments indicate that Russian military and domestic spy agencies are planning to launch a false-flag operation on infrastructure in Russia, the Baltics, and Poland using drones made by Ukraine, which will be executed within days after approval is given by leaders, including President Vladimir Putin.
Officials said that the main concern in the assessments wasn't so much the immediate impact, but the 'political turmoil' it would cause at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, as Europeans and Americans debated how and whether to respond.
A second source, a regional official, was less conclusive. He said that despite a series of warnings by "allied intelligence" regarding Russian activity, the Baltic States had been "overwhelmed" and attacks could occur "between now and never".
Moscow claims that the West accuses them of "Russophobia" and committing malign actions without any evidence. NATO and the Russian Embassy in Vilnius didn't immediately respond to comments.
A person familiar with the company's operations revealed that Orlen, Poland's top oil and gas firm, is looking at alternative routes to import gas in the event the current ones are compromised.
Orlen imports 80 percent of its gas via the Swinoujscie terminal for liquefied natural gas on the Baltic Sea, and a subsea pipeline that connects to Norway. Another person with direct knowledge of the situation said that Gaz-System is operating there under "increased surveillance".
Orlen refused to comment on any specific preventive measures. Gaz-System's spokesperson stated that the company is closely monitoring geopolitical developments and will respond appropriately.
Forged documents prompt concern over Polish nuclear?Plan
Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe (Polish Electricity Jadrowe), the state-owned developer behind Poland's first nucleo power plant, has said that forged documents aimed to confuse stakeholders have appeared. They can be traced somewhere "east of Poland".
Marcin Skolimowski, the company's spokesman, said that they are 'investigating and monitoring for sabotage and other threats on the construction site.
In July, Poland's power grid operators and a military arm increased security around a power connection with Ukraine. This link helps stabilize the grid of this war-torn country that has been repeatedly attacked by Russia.
Maciej Wawapinski, spokesperson for the grid operator, said: "This is an area that requires heightened vigilance. We are using all our resources."
The military is expected to help secure the critical infrastructure of other parts of the eastern part.
Unknown drones are also appearing in Europe. In Germany, last week, authorities found a drone with explosives on the Leipzig/Halle Airport. Alexander Dobrindt, the German interior minister, called it a hybrid assault but refused to assign blame. Russia has denied suggestions from German politicians and media that they are responsible.
Wojciech Koonczuk is the director of Poland's state-funded "OSW Centre for Eastern Studies" and he told us that a series of Russian allegations that the Baltics were "working for Ukraine" could be setting the stage for Russian attacks in the country.
He stated that the Russian forces were enmeshed in Ukraine, and Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy facilities and other facilities had hurt its economy. The goal was to gain the upper hand.
Kononczuk stated that the message to Europe would be that it would spread destabilisation, if it did not accept Moscow's requests. This is a risky decision based on a calculation that there will be a lack in will to react.
(source: Reuters)