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Ukraine reduces grain export forecast because of Russian attack on seaports
Ukraine's?agriculture ministry told? On Monday, Ukraine's?agriculture minister? cited?Russian strikes? on the southern Odesa hub of the country. Taras Vysotskyi, the first official forecaster of exports since the Russian attack in late July that effectively stopped shipments out of Odesa port, which are crucial to Ukraine and global agriculture market. Before the increase, the ministry had forecasted exports at 43 million tonnes for this season. In recent weeks, Russia has attacked Ukrainian Black Sea port terminals, vessels that enter and leave the ports on a daily basis and their export terminals. The lower grain forecast highlights?the damage?attacks are inflicting? on a nation that ships over 90% of its grain through seaports. Ukraine's exports are dominated by agricultural products. According to the Agriculture Ministry, this disruption could lead to a shortfall in grain storage of up 11 million tons. Vysotskyi, a Ukrainian politician, said earlier this month that the blockade of the ports could cause losses in the agricultural sector to reach $3 billion. APK-Inform analysts cut their forecast for exports by 8.6% to 39.4 millions tons on Monday due to?export disruptions. In a report, the consultancy stated that it has cut its forecast for exports of?wheat, corn and barley. It said that the estimate included 13.5?tons wheat, 24?tons corn, and 1.5 mln tonne barley. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Editing by Daniel Flynn & Emelia Sithole Matarise
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Oil spillage from tanker off Oman under sanctions against Russia spreads across huge area
The government of Oman said that an oil slick covers 390 square kilometres (150 sq miles) of ocean off its coast. This is after a ship?under sanctions? and?carrying Russian petroleum sustained damage. Two maritime security sources confirmed that the crew of?Caroline?Bezengi first reported problems on June 8, off Mukalla in southern Yemen. Initial assessments suggested that an explosion occurred onboard. In its first public disclosure, Oman announced on Monday that it is working to stop the oil spillage in its waters near the Hallaniyat Islands of southern Governorate Dhofar. According to a statement by Oman's?Environment Authority, carried by Omani state media agency, the oil slick covers approximately 390 square kilometres?based upon its latest analysis which included satellite imagery. The slick is said to extend northeast of the islands and towards the mainland. At its closest point, it comes within seven kilometers of the shore. Satellite imagery and shipping experts showed that the spillage from the 274-metre-long (900-foot-long) Caroline Bezengi Tanker was still spreading as of the end of last month. This raised concerns about environmental damage. It is not clear what caused the damage and Oman hasn't offered any explanation. The ship's shipping data revealed that it was loaded with?Russian crude oil before the voyage. The ship last sent a signal to public AIS tracking in June,?off of the coasts of Yemen. Russia's shadow fleet, which is made up of aging and often poorly maintained tankers, circumvents Western sanctions against?Russian oil imports. The European Union and Britain have imposed sanctions on the Caroline Bezengi, claiming that it was involved in transporting fuels from Russia. (Reporting and writing by Nayera Abadallah and Menna alaa El Din; Editing by Barbara Lewis.)
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MSC and BlackRock withdraw request for approval of purchase of stakes in Barcelona port
A regulatory filing revealed that the shipping giant MSC 'and the buyout fund BlackRock retracted their request to the European Union’s?antitrust regulator to approve their -plan to -buy the Barcelona port terminal, owned by CK Hutchison. Last December, the EU Commission, the EU's competition enforcer, launched a full-scale investigation on the grounds that the deal could lead to higher prices and a reduction in the quality of container terminal services. In the deal, Terminal Investment Limited Holding (TiL), a subsidiary of MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company based in Switzerland, and BlackRock would acquire joint control over Hutchison’s terminal at Barcelona Port. It is also the main gateway for deep-sea cargo from and to Barcelona. The terminal is also a major gateway for traffic from and to southern Europe. The EU warned that the merger could have affected rival container shipping firms, as?MSC received preferential treatment. BlackRock, MSC 'and CK 'Hutchison didn't respond to our requests for comment. Reporting by Inti landauro, Editing by David Goodman
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Sources say that Safe Harbor, owned by Blackstone, is close to a $1.5 billion deal with MarineMax.
People familiar with the matter say that Blackstone Infrastructure’s Safe 'Harbor 'Marinas is close to a $1.5 Billion deal for MarineMax. The deal will end a long-running battle for the recreational yacht retailer. It caters to wealthy clients through 65 marinas, 70 dealerships and storage facilities, mainly in the United States. Last month, it was reported that activist investor Donerail as well as private equity firm Centerbridge were also bidders. Safe Harbor will pay around $53 in cash per share to purchase MarineMax, according to sources. This is a substantial premium over the closing price on Friday of $35.68. Calculations show that this would value MarineMax's equity to be $1.17 billion. MarineMax had a long-term debt totaling $335?millions at the end of June, according to data provider LSEG. Sources who spoke anonymously to discuss their private discussions said that a deal could be announced this week, if there are no last-minute complications. MarineMax didn't immediately respond to an inquiry for comment. Blackstone declined comment. Safe Harbor would have its biggest deal since it was acquired by Blackstone's Infrastructure arm for $5.7 billion in April last year. MarineMax, a Florida-based company, will add Oldsmar to Safe Harbor’s existing network of marinas, which include operations in the U.S.A., Caribbean, and Mediterranean. Some sources claim that Safe Harbor will be the owner and operator of all MarineMax's segments. MarineMax's bidding war highlights the increasing investment appeal of the marina business, as lower rates of interest have allowed high-end consumers to spend on luxury items such as yachts while other economic groups are being forced to tighten up their belts. Donerail increased pressure on 'MarineMax' in October, publicly urging it to sell or replace CEO Brett McGill. MarineMax has made changes to address investor concerns. This includes replacing the board of directors. However, MarineMax began soliciting formal buyer interest in April. Reporting by Svea Autumn-Bayliss in New York and David French; editing by Echo Wang, Kevin Buckland
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According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the shortfall in Ukraine's grain-storage capacity could be as high as 11 million tonnes.
The agriculture ministry warned on Monday that a disruption of grain exports through Black Sea ports could lead to a shortage of grain storage capacity in Ukraine. Ukraine has harvested more than 17 millions metric tons from 34% of its sown land. The ministry stated that a storage shortage of 11 million tons could occur and it had asked U.S. Partners for assistance in acquiring equipment for temporary on farm?grain storage. APK-Inform analysts estimate that Ukraine's harvest in 2026 could reach 60 million tons. Exports are projected at 39 million tonnes, and carryover stock reaches a record 14.3 million tones. The most difficult situation is likely to occur in the middle of autumn, between September and October. This is when elevators will be filled with unexported wheat and barley, and farmers will begin harvesting large quantities of corn. Ukraine faced a shortage of grain storage and elevators at the beginning of the conflict with Russia, in '2022. According to Mykola Solskyi, the agriculture minister of Ukraine at the time, this shortfall would amount to 15 million tons by 2022. Later, the deficit was partly reduced by?the use?of grain storage bags provided?by Ukraine’s allies. Ukraine doesn't disclose the capacity of its grain storage, which has been damaged or destroyed by Russian attacks. Farmers and traders are also cautious about storing grain near military installations or front lines. (Reporting and editing by Kirsty Donovan, Barbara Lewis and Pavel Polityuk)
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The Russian Central Bank advises banks to allow firms that have been hit by warehouse attacks to restructure loans
According to a Monday letter published by the 'Russian Central Bank,' creditors are advised to assist businesses that have been affected by Ukrainian drone attacks on warehousing and logistics centres. Ukraine has?attacked at least 20 warehouses owned by Russian ecommerce retailer Wildberries since July 18. In a letter, the regulator stated that "small and medium-sized businesses who have suffered due to terrorist attacks on warehouses, manufacturing plants, retail, offices, and other premises can apply for restructured loans." Sberbank, VTB and Wildberries Bank, which is owned by the retailer, have all announced that they are ready to help?businesses. Sergei Melamed, senior Sberbank executive said that the bank had received 2,000 applications from entrepreneurs for loan restructuring. (Reporting and writing by Elena Fabrichnaya, Editing by Andrew Osborn).
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Etna ash cloud stops arrivals at Catania Airport in Sicily
SAC, the operator of Catania airport in eastern Sicily, said that flights arriving there were suspended until 1500 GMT Monday after volcanic ash drifted from Mount Etna's newest eruption into the airspace surrounding the airport. Etna is the most active volcano in the world and it frequently causes disruptions to air traffic at Catania airport, Italy's 5th busiest airport by passenger traffic. SAC issued a statement Monday saying that "as the situation significantly affects operations, passengers should check with their airline the status of their flight before going to the airport". It added that the situation was constantly being monitored and future updates would depend on "the evolution of volcanic activities and weather conditions". Italy's National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology said that the latest eruptive 'phase' on Europe's tallest volcano is continuing at'vents' of 2,750m (9,022ft) and 2360m, which are feeding several 'lava flows' and creating extensive lava 'fields. INGV’s Volcano Observatory Notice for Aviation remained 'at the highest 'alert level (red), indicating that aircraft are still at risk from ash emission. (Reporting and editing by Toby Chopra; reporting by Giselda Vasgnoni)
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APK-Inform cuts Ukraine grain export forecast for 2026/27 by 8.6%
APK-Inform, a 'consultancy', has cut Ukraine’s grain export forecast for 2026/27 from 43.1 million metric tons to 39.4?million metric tons. This is due to the halt of grain exports via?its Black Sea ports. In a report, the consultancy stated that it had reduced its export forecasts for wheat, barley, and corn. The volume could include 13,5 million tons wheat, 24 millions tons corn, and 1,5 million tons barley. In a report, it stated that "Ukraine’s grain export capacity...has been reduced due to a temporary stoppage of exports through the Deep-Water Ports of Greater Odesa as well as?high risk to civilian vessels due to continued Russian shelling." Ukraine and Russia have launched a wider campaign against each other's logistic, with both sides' e-commerce stores and Ukraine's fuel stations being heavily attacked during the summer. The consultancy had forecasted that the 2026/27 wheat and corn exports would be?15,3 million tons. Barley was estimated at 2.3 millions tons. According to data from the Agriculture Ministry, Ukraine exported 2.6 millions tons of grain by July 30, compared to 1.7 million tons a year ago. The ministry didn't provide data on exports for August when the attacks effectively stopped exports through the ports. APK-Inform reported that exports of major grains totaled 218,000 tonnes in the week from July 30 to august 5, a decrease of?24% compared to the previous week. HARD HARVEST ARE NOW HIGHER The consultancy has also increased its forecast for Ukraine's grain harvest in 2026 to 60.5 millions tons, up from 59.6million tons a few months earlier. The estimate is that the wheat crop in 2026 could reach 22.66 million tons, compared to the previous forecast which was 22.4 million tons. It said the barley crop could reach 6.3?million tons, compared to a previous forecast of 5.4?million?tons. However, the consultancy's corn harvest forecast for 2026 was reduced to 29,8?million metric tons from 30.1?million metric tons. According to the Agriculture Ministry, farmers have harvested 17.6 million tonnes of grain on 34% of sown areas as of August 4, 2018. Reporting by Pavel Polityuk, Editing by Kirby Donovan
Poland and the Baltics protect infrastructure in case of a Russian false flag attack
Russia's NATO northern neighbours tighten security around dams and power plants, as they grow increasingly concerned that Moscow may stage a "false-flag" attack using Ukrainian drones.
Last week, Lithuania claimed that Moscow was considering a staged attack. Poland, Latvia and Estonia?also warned against acts of sabotage in order to test NATO response during a time when the U.S. commitment towards the Western military alliance has been questioned.
Last month, Kremlin spokesperson?Dmitry Peskov? said that warnings about Russian clandestine attack are "scare tales" used to justify military action against Russia.
Poland and the Baltic States, all of which border Russia, and have found Ukrainian drones already on their territories, do not take any chances.
Robertas Kaunas, Lithuanian Minister of Defence, said: "We're not naive. We see the information. We read between the lines. And we do our homework."
The prime minister, four officials from the intelligence community and companies in the region and he shared details about intelligence assessments and the measures being taken to protect the infrastructure.
Kaunas stated, "We constantly exchange information on the next steps with our intelligence services."
The riot police and military take up positions
Last month, Lithuania sent the military to support riot police as they secured its liquefied gas import terminal, oil products terminal and a vital power link with Poland.
Kaunas said: "We're clearly signaling, that if necessary, we'll defend ourselves".
In an interview, Andris Kulbergs, the Prime Minister of Latvia, said that the country has enhanced security around critical infrastructure. This includes the Daugava River dam near Riga, and the Incukalns gas storage facility underground.
He said that a hybrid threat was more likely to occur than before.
In May, Russia accused the Baltic States of planning to allow Ukrainian drones to attack Russia from their territories and promised to retaliate. This prompted denials, protests and concerns that Moscow might stage an attack in order to justify its response.
An official from the Baltic intelligence agency said that?assessments indicate that Russian military and domestic spy agencies are planning to launch a false-flag operation on infrastructure in Russia, the Baltics, and Poland using drones made by Ukraine, which will be executed within days after approval is given by leaders, including President Vladimir Putin.
Officials said that the main concern in the assessments wasn't so much the immediate impact, but the 'political turmoil' it would cause at NATO Headquarters in Brussels, as Europeans and Americans debated how and whether to respond.
A second source, a regional official, was less conclusive. He said that despite a series of warnings by "allied intelligence" regarding Russian activity, the Baltic States had been "overwhelmed" and attacks could occur "between now and never".
Moscow claims that the West accuses them of "Russophobia" and committing malign actions without any evidence. NATO and the Russian Embassy in Vilnius didn't immediately respond to comments.
A person familiar with the company's operations revealed that Orlen, Poland's top oil and gas firm, is looking at alternative routes to import gas in the event the current ones are compromised.
Orlen imports 80 percent of its gas via the Swinoujscie terminal for liquefied natural gas on the Baltic Sea, and a subsea pipeline that connects to Norway. Another person with direct knowledge of the situation said that Gaz-System is operating there under "increased surveillance".
Orlen refused to comment on any specific preventive measures. Gaz-System's spokesperson stated that the company is closely monitoring geopolitical developments and will respond appropriately.
Forged documents prompt concern over Polish nuclear?Plan
Polskie Elektrownie Jadrowe (Polish Electricity Jadrowe), the state-owned developer behind Poland's first nucleo power plant, has said that forged documents aimed to confuse stakeholders have appeared. They can be traced somewhere "east of Poland".
Marcin Skolimowski, the company's spokesman, said that they are 'investigating and monitoring for sabotage and other threats on the construction site.
In July, Poland's power grid operators and a military arm increased security around a power connection with Ukraine. This link helps stabilize the grid of this war-torn country that has been repeatedly attacked by Russia.
Maciej Wawapinski, spokesperson for the grid operator, said: "This is an area that requires heightened vigilance. We are using all our resources."
The military is expected to help secure the critical infrastructure of other parts of the eastern part.
Unknown drones are also appearing in Europe. In Germany, last week, authorities found a drone with explosives on the Leipzig/Halle Airport. Alexander Dobrindt, the German interior minister, called it a hybrid assault but refused to assign blame. Russia has denied suggestions from German politicians and media that they are responsible.
Wojciech Koonczuk is the director of Poland's state-funded "OSW Centre for Eastern Studies" and he told us that a series of Russian allegations that the Baltics were "working for Ukraine" could be setting the stage for Russian attacks in the country.
He stated that the Russian forces were enmeshed in Ukraine, and Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy facilities and other facilities had hurt its economy. The goal was to gain the upper hand.
Kononczuk stated that the message to Europe would be that it would spread destabilisation, if it did not accept Moscow's requests. This is a risky decision based on a calculation that there will be a lack in will to react.
(source: Reuters)