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Hydro & wind double act assistance protect Austria from Russian gas loss: Maguire

Austrian power generators are well placed to stand up to the loss of pipeline gas supplies from Russia thanks to tape-record wind power output together with the greatest hydro generation overall in over a decade.

An agreement dispute in between Russian energy giant Gazprom and Austrian gas importer OMV led to Gazprom cutting off 50 years of gas streams to OMV earlier this month.

However energies in Austria are in a strong position to make do with just minimal gas supplies over the next several months, thanks to the continuous reconfiguring of the Austrian power system far from fossil fuels.

If Austria handles to shake off its loss of gas materials right before winter - when gas use is normally highest - it could be a fresh blow to Russian exporters who are currently reeling from greatly lower sales to northern European markets.

An effective Austrian pivot far from gas might likewise act as a template for neighbouring nations, which might probably also cut their cumulative gas usage and balance out power losses with increased imports through their currently interconnected grids.

SIGNIFICANT HYDRO

Austria's network of more than 3,000 hydroelectric power plants is one the biggest in Europe, and forms the foundation of Austria's power system by providing more than two-thirds of the country's electrical power.

Hydro electricity output over the first 10 months of 2024 is up 17% from the exact same months in 2023 and the greatest in at least a decade, according to energy think tank Coal.

High rainfall in late 2023 and early 2024 helped raise Austria's tank levels to multi-year highs from the start of the year.

Heavy rains in September, which triggered localized flooding, then charged the country's pumped storage system ahead of winter.

Electrical energy production from hydro dams was 4.15 terawatt hours (TWh) in October, according to Coal, up 65% from the same month in 2023.

High hydro storage levels combined with continuing strong run-of-river hydro production indicates power firms will be able to deploy high levels of hydro electrical power production in November also.

And as winter season is the peak period of Austrian electricity and power use due to greater heating demand, these topped-up hydro resources will permit Austrian power companies to cut down on the usage of natural gas over the near to medium term.

That will eat into total gas use by the country, as gas-fired generation usually peaks throughout winter season when power companies use gas-fired generation to plug any hydro power shortages throughout the coldest months of the year.

WIND POWER

Higher wind power generation is likewise consuming into gas need in Austria.

Over the first 10 months of 2024, wind electricity output in Austria was 7.7 TWh, which was 18% more than over the very same period in 2023.

That overall was likewise 2.5 times greater than gas-fired electrical energy output over the very same period, sealing wind farms as the 2nd largest source of Austrian electricity behind hydro dams.

The timing of Austrian wind power production peaks is likewise working versus gas usage capacity in the nation, as wind speeds in central and southern Europe tend to peak throughout the winter when gas consumption has actually traditionally been highest.

If wind speeds follow that seasonal trend once again in 2024-25, wind generation need to stay higher than gas generation throughout the coming winter season, which would damage total gas usage in Austria at an important time for the nation.

In all, if Austria can effectively shake off the loss of gas streams right before winter it would be a bitter blow to Russian gas exporters, as it would demonstrate a further deteriorating in gas reliance at the heart of Central Europe.

The mix of high hydro and wind production could likewise act as a design template for surrounding nations, who remain in the midst of charting their own energy shift roadmaps and are also eager to cut dependence on energy imports.

Neighbouring countries Czech Republic, Hungary, Switzerland, Italy, Slovenia and Slovakia all have comprehensive interconnected grids with Austria, therefore could feasibly also make cuts to their collective gas intake and balance out any power losses with increased local imports.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst .

(source: Reuters)