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Maguire: Germany's weak wind triggers record surge in gas-fired electricity

In November, Germany's gas-fired electricity output jumped 79% from the previous month as utilities scrambled for a way to compensate for a second consecutive month of wind farm output that was significantly below normal.

In October and November, wind speed was 25% lower than the previous year's output. This left power companies without a major source of electricity just as winter arrived. In 2023, wind farms will provide 27% of German utilities' electricity. Data from the energy think tank Ember show that utilities increased gas-fired electric production to plug in the gap. It went from 5.34 Terawatt Hours (TWh), in October, to 9.55TWh, in November.

This was the highest monthly increase in German gas-fired power generation. It was also accompanied by an explosion in coal-fired energy production, which reached 20-month-highs. The utilities had to compensate for a fall in solar generation that was at its lowest level of the year.

According to LSEG's forecast, wind output will return to a level around 6% higher than normal in December. This should ease the strain placed on Germany’s power systems by year end.

Solar generation is expected to continue to decline during winter. This may mean that power companies will not be able reduce fossil fuel output until at least 2025.

The German power emissions may rise further in the coming months before they drop again next spring.

Dealing with a DRAWN-OUT 'DUNKELFLAUTE

The 'Dunkelflaute,' or "dark wind lull", is a period when wind speeds are low and wind farms cannot generate much power.

The wind farms in Germany have been experiencing a prolonged lull, with wind production largely flattened at 10 TWh rather than increasing steadily due to the autumnal winds.

The total wind generation for October was the lowest since 2016 and 26% lower than the total generation during the same period in 2023.

Germany's energy producers have seen wind lulls in the past and are able to accommodate them by adjusting output from other sources for a couple of weeks.

This year's Dunkelflaute extended into November, and the wind generation was less than 12 TWh as compared to almost 16 TWh by November 2023.

The back-to-back shortfalls in wind power meant that the energy firms were forced to use fossil fuels not only to make up for lower than expected wind output but also to increase total generation during winter to meet higher demand.

No Refund?

According to LSEG, wind forecasting models predict that German wind generation will be around 6% higher than the long-term median in December.

If this recovery occurs, German utilities could use the extra power to balance their system and reduce generation from fossil fuels.

According to LSEG, however, the weather forecasts for Germany indicate that temperatures will be well below average for the next two-week period.

This means that power companies may have to increase their production from all sources to meet the higher heating demand.

According to Ember, this will lead to a further increase in the German electricity sector's emissions. In November, they reached a 21-month peak of nearly 19 millions metric tons (CO2).

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)