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Maguire: Europe's gas-use pace could slow down as the coal switchover kicks in.

Several of the largest economies in northern Europe have increased gas-fired electricity generation by a large amount so far in 2025. This has helped to raise regional gas prices at their highest level since early 2023.

LSEG data shows that the gas-fired production in January was up by more than 10% compared to January 2024 levels, and reached its highest level for the month since at least 2012.

Gas consumption may slow down as gas prices in the region have now risen above coal-fired power generation. This may cause some power companies to reduce gas production and increase coal-fired energy instead.

The switch from gas to coal is most likely in Germany or Poland, where coal-fired electricity makes up a greater share of the national generation system than natural gas.

Gas prices in Europe are currently up 60% from a year earlier.

However, reducing gas usage and increasing coal-fired power generation will have major emissions consequences, since coal emits nearly twice as many carbon dioxide per unit of electricity generated as gas.

GAS BOOM

In January, gas-fired electricity production reached historic highs in Germany as well as the United Kingdom. This was the first time that the monthly totals were so high in either country since the Russian invasion of Ukraine early in 2022 disrupted regional gas markets.

In both the Netherlands as well as Poland, the January 2025 total for gas-fired power was the second highest monthly total since 2022. This highlights the wide-ranging use of gas in Europe over the past few months.

According to LSEG, the TTF facility, Europe's major gas pricing hub, in the Netherlands, reflects the rapid consumption. Prices in January averaged 48.36 euro per megawatt-hour.

This is a 40% increase over the TTF 2024 average and 60% above where TTF was averaged in January 2024. It is also the highest price that the region has seen since February 2023.

SWITCHING OUT

Power producers are being forced to reduce price increases by consumers due to the steep rise in TTF prices.

In 2022 and 2023 the cost of energy for consumers in Europe rose more than it did in the United States or Asia. As a result, European power providers are under heavy societal and government pressure to avoid any further increases.

You can do this by switching to cheaper energy sources whenever possible.

After the dramatic rise in natural gas prices over the last year, coal is now the cheaper source of power generation than gas in Germany and Poland.

Since August 2024, the gas price has consistently been higher than what is called coal switching prices.

The coal-switching rate is the price at which an electricity provider can generate more power economically from coal than gas, provided both fuels are available.

According to LSEG, from August until the end of 2024 the TTF gas price averaged 6.20 euros per Megawatt Hour (MWh) or 18% above the coal-switching prices.

By 2025, the difference has grown to almost 13 euros/MWh (or 36% above coal switching price).

The spot and forward price of natural gas and thermal coke locally available is a factor for managers of complex energy networks with coal and gas power stations.

The current TTF forward curve indicates that gas prices will remain higher than coal switching price until at least 2026. By then, gas costs are expected to drop again.

The LSEG data on forward curves indicates that TTF will be priced at an average of 14.70 euros/MWh higher than the coal switching prices in 2025. However, the curves will still remain dynamic for gas and coal.

This price outlook for power producers in Continental Europe suggests that firms who can increase output from coal while reducing gas usage may be able reduce operating costs and limit further increases in consumer energy bills.

Any sharp increase in coal-fired production will undermine regional efforts to reduce emissions and could generate criticism from regional emission watchdogs.

The United Kingdom's power firms have no choice but to switch back to coal-fired production after the closure of Britain’s last coal plant, in 2024. However, a sustained increase in wind energy generation in the coming months may reduce the amount of gas-fired electricity required.

The steep rise in gas prices across Europe will force power companies to increase their output using non-gas sources. However, gas-fired stations will still remain an important part of the overall mix.

These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.

(source: Reuters)