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German conservatives to win state elections

The conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, were expected to win the election in Rhineland-Palatinate's western state on Sunday. This was ahead of the Social Democrat (SPD), who suffered a "bitter defeat" after 35 years of governing the state.

Early projections, after the polls closed, showed Merz's CDU with 30.8%, ahead of SPD at 26%. This indicates a win for Merz, after his party narrowly missed an election in Baden-Wuerttemberg, its neighbouring state, on March 8.

Carsten Linnemann, CDU general secretary, called it a "great outcome" which showed strong support for Merz's two coalition partners. Polls nationwide indicate that Merz's alliance has seen a sharp decline in support since the last elections.

"If this result remains the same, the CDU/CSU will have over?50%, which is a good result for the centre-right parties," Linnemann, referring the sister party of the CDU in Bavaria, said.

Both parties will now be expected to form a state-level coalition, similar to the one in Berlin. CDU candidate Gordon Schnieder is on track for the SPD Premier Alexander Schweitzer.

After a narrow defeat in Rhineland-Palatinate two weeks earlier, the victory was a relief for?Merz. He is battling to shore-up Western support for Ukraine, and faces the looming energy shock resulting from the Iran war.

The result is a blow to his Berlin-based coalition partners, the SPD. They are still recovering from the disastrous results they had in Baden-Wuerttemberg where they only managed to win 5.5% of the vote and barely made it over the threshold for entering parliament.

Tim Kluessendorf, SPD Secretary-General, told ARD that the results, which saw the party's score fall by almost 10 percentage points in Rhineland-Palatinate from the previous state elections, were a "bitter defeat."

Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, now established as the second strongest party in Germany at national level, would form the main bloc of opposition. Its score doubled to 20%, which is its best ever result in a Western state.

Tino Chrupalla, co-leader of the AfD, said that if CDU refused to form a coalition with AfD it had to explain to him how it would continue to pursue conservative policies.

Schnieder reiterated that the CDU will not be joining forces with the extreme right. He said that bringing the AfD into the country would be disastrous.

CRISIS FOR THE CENTRE-LEFT

Since 1991, the SPD has ruled Rhineland-Palatinate. Losing control of this state will likely add to the 'crisis' that has surrounded the party since the collapse of Olaf Scholz’s coalition government in Berlin.

Pollsters said voters in Rhineland-Palatinate, one of Germany's main wine-growing regions and home to chemicals giant BASF as well as ?a host of smaller Mittelstand companies, were heavily focused on economic issues that penalised the SPD.

The party led a coalition?with the Greens, the liberal Free Democrats and the Greens, but they failed to get into parliament. Now, it is expected to be the junior partner of a CDU coalition.

Lars Klingbeil accepted responsibility for Merz's?result, but said that the Berlin coalition planned a major reform package and refused to resign. He said: "I will not duck this question."

The Rhineland-Palatinate election was the second of five state elections this year, ahead of closely watched races in September in Berlin and the eastern states of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt, where the far-right AfD is hoping to win its first major election. Reporting by James Mackenzie, Friederike Heine and Hugh Lawson; Editing and Chris Reese.

(source: Reuters)