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Bousso: Reopening of the ROI-Hormuz could be OPEC’s downfall

Saudi Arabia and its neighbouring Gulf producers are likely to cheer the eventual reopening of Strait of Hormuz. However, the ensuing influx of?oil could erode OPEC’s fragile grip on the markets. The Iran conflict and the closing of the crucial waterway, through which nearly one-fifth of the oil and gas in the world flowed prior to the conflict, have dramatically reduced the output of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. This has shifted the centre of gravity of the industry away from the Middle East. Riyadh has limited options to counter?these changes. The re-opening of the strait is not certain. Iran wants to maintain some control over the waterway, while U.S. president Donald Trump is insistent that it should be returned to its prewar normal.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates will all try to maximize oil exports in order to plug the huge fiscal holes caused by the conflict. ROI estimates that the loss of 13 million barrels of Middle East exports each day - 13% of global supplies - since February 28, 2014, represents over $80 billion of lost revenue. The damage to energy infrastructure, such as refineries, storage facilities and tankers, can amount to tens or even hundreds of billions.

There will be huge incentives for energy importers to act quickly, especially in Asia. Asian refineries and governments have drastically reduced consumption during the conflict, reducing inventories. Many will be eager to replenish their stockpiles. Demand and supply will not necessarily recover at the same pace.

It could take several months for Middle East producers re-start a large portion of the 11 million bpd? of shut-in production. Uncertainty also exists about how much of the demand has actually been destroyed, and how much is simply being postponed. Geopolitical worries will likely lead to an uneven, stop and start recovery that puts pressure on supply chains and increases volatility in oil prices. Historically, these conditions would have played into OPEC's strength. In the past, the group and its allies including Russia have intervened repeatedly to stabilize markets by adjusting production. The COVID-19 pandemic is a prime example, where coordinated cuts and increases were used to help control prices through extreme swings.

The cartel appears to be less capable of playing this role.

OPEC STRUCTURED AND FRAGMENTED by war. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, its production fell to 20 million bpd on average in April from 31 millions in February. OPEC has seen its share of the global production drop to an all-time record low of 22%. The UAE's decision to leave the group in April, to pursue their own production strategy, dealt a major blow to both OPEC cohesion and Saudi Authority. The strain is compounded by Russia's inability, due to repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on its energy infrastructure as part of Kyiv’s campaign to weaken Moscow’s war economy, to increase exports or act as a pivotal supplier within the broader OPEC+ Alliance. In this context, the reopening Hormuz may put Riyadh into a difficult position. OPEC member countries that are revenue-starved will likely compete fiercely to gain market share. This will push more barrels on the market, and put heavy pressure on prices. Riyadh may struggle to convince them that they need to reduce production in order to maintain prices.

Saudi Arabia's wartime actions could further undermine its influence. Riyadh took advantage of the price spike during the war by diverting 60% of its exports to the Red Sea. Once full access to the Red Sea is restored, it will be harder for Riyadh to convince producers like Iraq and Kuwait to reduce output. Recent OPEC policy signals confirm the current direction. The group decided on Sunday to increase output for a fourth month in a row.

OPEC+ will be able to complete, at least in paper, the 1,65 million bpd reductions agreed upon in 2023 if they continue on their current course.

A BUMPY RIDE? TO OVERSUPPLY It is true that any recovery in supply will not happen immediately. The balance of risks still points to oversupply. According to Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, the return of OPEC barrels along with a high level of production from the?U.S.A., Brazil, and Venezuela, could lead to a global surplus of 5 million bpd after a complete reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It is important to note that producers outside of the Gulf, such as some OPEC member countries, have strengthened their market positions throughout the crisis. This should make it more difficult for Gulf producers without aggressive pricing to recover lost market share. The producer group has demonstrated a willingness over the years to engage in "painful" price wars. Starting one now, following the most disruptive shock to supply in decades, could spiral out of control, hastening the demise of OPEC.

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(source: Reuters)