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McKinsey estimates that German gas consumption could drop 3%-7% between 2030 and 2035

McKinsey, a consultancy firm, said that Germany's gas consumption could drop between 3% and 7% from its current levels by 2030 while remaining central to the nation's energy supply.

McKinsey's researchers have lowered their predictions, but not as much as those of the economy ministry. This is because McKinsey expects a slower than expected transition from gas-burning to electric heat pump boilers and a stronger than expected gas demand for power generation and district warming.

Why does it matter?

Germany, Europe's largest economy, is at a crossroads in its energy transition. A conservative-led government will likely bring a more sober update after an overreliance on renewable energy has led to some supply and cost risks.

McKinsey’s six-monthly index of energy transition captures trends that point to an expected turnaround. According to utilities, this turnaround must be able fill in gaps left by the country's nuclear withdrawal in 2023 as well as the planned withdrawal from coal in the next few years.

Europe has increased its imports of LNG from the global market, since Ukraine stopped transiting Russian pipeline gas on January 1.

By the Numbers

McKinsey estimated that German gas consumption could drop to 690-720 terawatt hour (TWh) by 2030. This is a decrease from the 740 TWh currently used.

Grid operators' plans for network development based on ministry scenarios cited between 550-650 TWh, the report said.

German households and companies consume 45% of the annual gas demand. Industry uses 30% in its processes and power plants 25%.

KEY QUOTES

Thomas Vahlenkamp is a senior partner in McKinsey's Duesseldorf office. Thomas Vahlenkamp, a senior partner at McKinsey’s Duesseldorf offices, said:

The report's abstract referred to the growing reliance on LNG, and noted that "a tight supply could lead to price spikes." Reporting by Vera Eckert and editing by David Evans

(source: Reuters)