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Southeast Asia's intense gas need outlook might dissatisfy: Maguire

Southeast Asia is fast ending up being an essential development market for natural gas, and on paper has an aggressive advancement pipeline for gasfired power stations that if completed would guarantee the region would be a. significant gas consumer for decades.

Southeast Asia is likewise among the fastest growing. destinations for shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Total. LNG volumes to the area have more than doubled given that 2019,. surpassing all other key markets, according to Kpler.

However gas bulls need to be wary about just how much of Southeast. Asia's proposed gas power advancement pipeline remains stuck in. the scheduled stage, as only around 6% of the area's revealed. power projects are presently under building and construction.

The remainder are still just planned on paper, therefore remain. at risk of possible hold-up or cancellation if power sector or. federal government top priorities switch to alternate power sources.

And the threat of deep cuts to gas-fired capacity strategies is. high, as clean energy capability development has actually grown at 3. times the rate of gas-fired capability given that 2018, and has. just recently exceeded regional gas capacity for the first time.

Gradually rising tidy generation capacity is in turn requiring. energy system coordinators to examine the generation requirements. from staying system elements, placing potentially costly and. long-duration advancement tasks in jeopardy.

BIG PLANS

Near 100,000 megawatts of gas-fired power generation is. either currently under building and construction or has been revealed throughout. Southeast Asia, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM).

That total is the third-highest for all areas behind. Eastern Asia, that includes China, and Western Asia, which. consists of the Middle East, GEM data programs.

Of that prepared overall, only around 12,600 MW is currently. under building and construction, while nearly 87,000 MW is classified as. remaining in pre-development.

The region has around 109,000 GW of gas-fired capacity in. operation, which puts Southeast Asia seventh out of 15 regions. tracked by GEM in regards to operational gas capacity.

However if all of Southeast Asia's pre-development gas strategies. come to fulfillment, the region would leap to fourth on the worldwide. gas power capacity table, and for that reason become a substantial. player in worldwide gas markets.

CAPACITY FLUX

The scale and rate of any region's power sector capacity. development is constantly in flux and figured out by a variety of. factors consisting of the economics of each task, the degree of. federal government aid for developers and the cost of debt funding.

All of those factors can change over the course of a. planned development project and mean that data trackers such as. GEM often revise projections.

Gas-fired capability requirements are also identified by the. power generation mix within each nation, which is likewise altering. at a much faster rate than many massive energy designers can. keep up with.

For some designers of fossil-fuel fired plants, the. faster development of clean energy tasks that can create an. equal or higher quantity of low-emissions power might result in. their proposed jobs becoming surplus to requirements before. they can even be constructed.

CLEAN GROWTH

For Southeast Asia's gas power plant designers, the fast. build-out of clean electricity generation capacity over the past. five years is weakening the need case for major increases to. generation capacity from nonrenewable fuel sources.

In between 2018 and 2023, gas-fired generation capability within. the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member. countries increased by 16% to approximately 103 GW, according to. energy think tank Ember.

That expansion pushed local gas capability to a record, but. much faster capability development by other source of power led to a fall in. gas' share of regional electricity capacity to a record. low 31% in 2023, from 37% in 2018.

Over the same duration, clean energy generation capability. throughout ASEAN increased by 63% to 105 GW.

That suggests regional tidy capability was currently higher than. local gas capability last year, and keeps growing as more solar. and wind energy projects come online at a much faster clip than. new gas-fired capacity.

NATION THREAT

The growth pace of tidy generation capability has been. specifically fast within Vietnam, which is likewise the country with. the greatest percentage of prepared gas-fired capability in. Southeast Asia.

Of all the revealed gas-fired capacity strategies in Southeast. Asia, roughly half is slated to be built in Vietnam, GEM data. programs.

But Vietnam is likewise a leading tidy energy capability builder,. which is altering the degree of the country's gas-fired requirements.

From 2018 to 2023, Vietnam's tidy electrical power generation. capability leapt by 146% to 46 GW.

Over the exact same period, Vietnam's gas-fired capacity stayed. flat at 8.15 GW and led to gas capability falling to only 10%. of overall electricity generation capability in the country.

That gas share compares to 18% in 2018 and 38% in 2010, and. indicates that gas-fired power has already been progressively. ejected of Vietnam's generation mix while renewables and. hydropower have actually handled greater systemic significance.

Vietnam's power manufacturers have likewise expanded coal-fired. capability to tape-record highs in recent years in order to keep. total energy expenses in check and boost electrical energy materials.

The roughly 27 GW of coal-fired capability in location in Vietnam. suggests that fossil fuels already represent a roughly 43% share. of total generation capability in the country.

Any more growths in fossil-fired capability - even from. cleaner-burning gas - would be at chances with the. country's stated target of net absolutely no power emissions by 2050.

In addition, a current rate cap set by the government on. power produced from LNG imports is also anticipated to slow. financial investments in LNG import terminals in the nation, which remain. exposed to swings in global LNG rates despite. domestic power price limitations.

That leaves the nation's aspiring gas-fired power. developers at threat of disappointment.

Some outdated coal-fired plants can be changed by gas. plants, which would assist a few of the proposed jobs cross the. goal.

However at this stage the complete conclusion of all planned. gas-fired jobs in Vietnam seems not likely, and suggests that. job developers may require to cut down on gas capacity. construction price quotes for the whole area. << The opinions revealed here are those of the author, a. writer .>

(source: Reuters)