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DHL's operating profit will increase in 2026 despite a worsening geopolitical climate
DHL, the German logistics company, forecast on Thursday a "higher operating income for 2026" that was in line with market expectations despite deteriorating geopolitical conditions. The company expects earnings before interest and taxes to exceed 6.2 billion euros ($7.2 billion) after reporting 6.1 million euros last year. The free cash flow, excluding acquisitions, should be in the range of 3 billion euros. The company provided a consensus that showed both targets were in line with analysts' average predictions. Tobias Meyer, CEO of Tobias Meyer & Co. said that there is "significant geopolitical uncertainty and volatility out there" as was evident in the first two months of this year. "Our forecast does not assume an improvement in the global economy." As the conflict in the Middle East escalates, logistics and shipping companies face increasing?disruptions on air and sea routes. Iran's closure of Strait of Hormuz Sunday forced major carriers, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, to once again divert their vessels around Africa. This added significant transit time as well as costs. FedEx, the U.S. package giant, announced on Monday that it would temporarily suspend services in five countries of the region. Analysts had predicted a decline of 1.3% in DHL's operating profit for the fourth quarter, to 1.83 billion euro. The freight forwarding division, which saw a 36% drop in earnings, weighed down the result. European shipping and logistic firms are 'fighting against weaker demand, a series of trade disruptions and tariffs from President Donald Trump. We?see a decline in freight rates for air and ocean freight. Meyer stated that the economic conditions in Europe and Germany are affecting road freight. Reporting by Emanuele Bernro and Matthias Inverardi, editing by Milla Nissi-Prussak.
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Maguire: ROI-Charting of the impact of the Iran Crisis on Energy Markets.
The ongoing U.S. - Iran war is having a global impact. Fuel prices, European gas costs and Asian freight rates have all risen sharply since the strikes began over the weekend. The interconnectedness of global energy markets is illustrated by the transmission of market jitters in the fuel, power and shipping sectors, despite recent efforts to increase energy security and produce more energy domestically. Here is a list of the key markets that were impacted by the conflagration since it began over the weekend. Also, here are the most important data points you should be tracking as the skirmishes continue and disruptions in energy product flows could worsen. SHIPPING OUT After the bombings last weekend and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the global tanker fleet was one of the hardest-hit sectors. A fifth of the world's oil, fuel, and LNG passes through this well-known maritime chokepoint. As a result, virtually all energy liquid carriers have been affected by the traffic disruptions, and the scramble that followed to reroute the shipments. Shipping quotes for crude oil from the Middle East to China show the severity of the logistical crunch. The cost of chartering an extremely large crude carrier (VLCC), which was around $120,000 per day last week, has risen to over $450,000 per day since the fighting began. China is the largest oil importer in the world. Domestic crude oil futures have also surged, increasing by 31% from last Friday to the 12% increase for Brent and U.S. oil futures during the same time period. The supply chain chaos has not only affected China. The fuel tanker prices from Singapore to Japan, and the U.S.A. to Europe also increased this week due to the tightening of energy supplies worldwide and the panicky attitude among oil and fuel purchasers. GAS & FUELS The price of natural gas in Europe has also risen sharply this week. This is because several European countries are still heavily dependent on gas for their power and industrial needs, but have reduced their local gas stocks to levels not seen in many years. The benchmark European gas prices have soared in response to news that Qatar had halted the loading of liquefied gas after its main gas liquefaction plants were attacked by Iranian drones on the weekend. Prices for European gas futures have increased by almost 70% since Friday. Even prices for December 2026 are up around 40% on the expectation of a continued tightening in global gas supply while Qatar remains off-line. Brent, the benchmark crude oil price for the world, has also surged higher in recent weeks. Prices for May futures have risen by about 12% and prices for year-end by around 3 %. The fear that shipping routes from the Middle East may be clogged for a long time has boosted sentiment on all major oil markets. This is especially true as storage tanks in the Middle East fill up quickly and force producers to cut production if they cannot resume exports within a short period of time. U.S. futures gasoline prices have also followed a similar pattern, despite the fact that the U.S. has been a major crude oil exporter and producer. Nearby - U.S. Nearby?U.S. U.S. president Trump announced steps?to re-establish ship traffic in the Middle East to lower energy costs for U.S. customers. This included a proposal that the U.S. 'Navy escorts tankers through Strait of Hormuz. Energy prices are likely to remain high for at least the short term, as the U.S. and Israel continue to increase their bombing campaigns and cause more damage to the energy and logistic channels in the Middle East. In the coming weeks, all major energy markets could see even more dramatic increases in fuel, power and freight prices. These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets 7 days a weeks.
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US charter flights repatriating Americans to Middle East, State Department claims
The U.S. State Department announced on Wednesday that a U.S. government charter flight is bringing Americans from the Middle East to the United States, and additional flights are being planned for other locations in the region. The agency did not provide any information on the number or passengers, the countries they were departing from, nor the arrival and departure times of the flight. Since February 28, when U.S. forces and Israeli forces launched initial strikes against Iran, more than 17500 Americans have safely returned home to the United States. The State Department reported that approximately 8,500 Americans returned from the Middle East on Tuesday. The Department of State reported that many more Americans have fled the Middle East for other countries in Europe or Asia since the beginning of the conflict. The State Department issued a directive on Monday urging Americans in 14 Middle Eastern countries to leave the region immediately using "available commercial transportation." Many Americans are still facing difficulties due to the global travel disruptions that have been caused by this war. Some?U.S. lawmakers were very critical of the situation. The State Department was accused by lawmakers of poor planning and late warnings. The Department responded that it was "facilitating charter flights from the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan" for U.S. Citizens in need. Christian Martinez, Ismail Shakil, and Steve Gorman reported; Jacqueline Wong edited.
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Sky News reports that the first UK flight to Middle East will be delayed until Thursday.
Sky News reported that a British flight to repatriate UK citizens after the Middle East war broke out did not take off on time from Oman as planned. The flight has now been rescheduled later Thursday. Could not confirm the report immediately. The British Foreign Office didn't immediately respond to an outside of'regular office hours? request for comment. The Foreign Office said that British nationals, their partners or spouses, and children were welcome to take the flight. Priority was given to the most vulnerable. Sky News reported that an unidentified passenger who was scheduled to fly on the flight said, "We were told the plane would?takeoff later today after the pilot has rested." The passenger said, "We were informed that due to the slow check-in process and delays, the pilot needed to rest as he had already clocked his hours." Since Israel and the U.S. struck Iran on Saturday, hundreds of thousands of Europeans are stranded. Iran attacked its neighbors after Israel struck on Saturday. The people stuck in the area are either on holiday, transiting through or permanently based there. British Airways said that it will also operate a flight out of Oman at the dawn of Thursday local time. Gursimran K. Kaur, Bengaluru. Christopher Cushing & Kate Mayberry edited the article.
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Airline share prices rebound after a resumption of Middle East flights
Airline shares recovered on 'Thursday, as more flights left the Middle East. This provided some respite for carriers who had lost billions in value due to the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran earlier in the week. The government has been scrambling for flights out of the Middle East to accommodate tens and thousands of citizens who have been stranded due to the U.S.-Israeli conflict against Iran. This conflict has caused the closure of most of the airspace in the region because of the threat of missiles striking passenger planes. Dubai, the busiest airport in the world, handles over 1,000 flights per day. Its closure has disrupted travel and caused ticket prices to soar on popular routes, such as Australia-Europe. Emirates and Etihad Airways now operate a limited number services?from Dubai and Abu Dhabi via the safe air corridors of the United Arab Emirates, while Qatar Airways flight from Doha remains completely halted. Flightradar24 reports that as of Thursday morning's early hours, Emirates flights have left Dubai for destinations such as Sydney, Amsterdam and Mumbai. However, the majority of these services remain cancelled. The Australian government announced that three commercial flights are scheduled to depart from the United Arab Emirates and arrive in Australia on Thursday. This follows the arrival of 200 Australians on a flight by Emirates from Dubai on Wednesday evening, where there were emotional scenes at the arrival gates, as families embraced their returning travellers. The?U.S. State Department said that a U.S. charter flight brought Americans from the Middle East to the United States, and other flights were being arranged for various locations in the region. State Department announced. Canada has said that it is working on repatriating stranded Canadians by organizing seats on commercial flights, and hiring charter flights. Air India announced that it would be flying a Boeing 787 with more capacity on Thursday to bring back passengers who were stranded on the Mumbai-Dubai Delhi route. ASIAN AIRLINE SHARE REBOUND After a double-digit drop in recent days, many Asian airline stocks have recovered amid concern over the length of the conflict and the impact on oil prices. Kenny Ng is a securities analyst at China Everbright Securities International. He said: "I consider this recovery to be short-term and its sustainability will depend on the current situation in the Iranian Conflict." The New York Times, citing briefed officials, reported that operatives of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence had expressed an openness to U.S. Central Intelligence Agency?to talk about ending the war. Shares of Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways grew by 4.2%. Qantas Airways jumped more than 1%, and Korean Air Lines rose more than 5.0%. Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines all fell between 1%-?3% on the Hong Kong and Shanghai market, stabilising from steeper drops earlier in the week. Asian airlines are very sensitive to Iran because of the exposure they have through energy and routes, both in terms of revenue and cost. Gary Ng is a senior economist with Natixis. He said that any news about reducing the length of the war could easily change sentiment. Airspace is so constrained that airlines have to make reroutes, carry more fuel, or stop for refueling to avoid sudden divergence or long flight paths along safer corridors. Some expatriates and marooned tourists have tried to escape the Middle East via Saudi Arabia or Oman where the airspace is still open.
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US lawmakers express concern about Intel's testing tools from a China-linked firm
As reported first by. ACM Research is a California-based producer of chipmaking equipment that has deep roots in China and two overseas units which were sanctioned by the U.S. ACM Research's customers include Chinese companies sanctioned by the U.S. such as YMTC, SMIC and YMTC. This raises questions about whether ACM can pass sensitive Intel information to Chinese clients. The lawmakers wrote to Intel CEO Lip Bu Tan on Wednesday that "by operating in Intel's facility, ACM can gain exposure to cutting edge chipmaking processes which may materially improve quality and competitiveness for?ACM as well as Chinese military companies." Intel stated in a statement that "ACM Tools are not used in Intel’s semiconductor production processes." The company also said that it fully complies to U.S. laws, regulations and works regularly with the U.S. Government on security issues. ACM didn't immediately respond to the request for comment on this story. The company had previously said that it couldn't comment on "specific engagements" with customers, but it revealed the shipment of three tools to a major U.S. semiconductor manufacturer. These are currently being tested and many have already met performance standards. ACM has previously stated that it does pose a threat to national security, noting that the U.S. unit sanctioned in Shanghai is "bifurcated" and "isolated" from its U.S. operation. It also added that U.S. clients are directly supported by U.S. personnel with robust safeguards protecting customer trade secrets. The Chinese Embassy at Washington has not responded to a comment request immediately. The letter is also signed by Democrats Elissa slotkin and Andy Kim, as well as Republicans Jim Banks, Pete Ricketts. It shows a bipartisan concern over China's increasing role in the?U.S. The semiconductor industry. The House Selection Committee on China stated in October that it had "reviewed reports with concern?that ACM Research...?has sold (semiconductor production equipment) to a U.S. semiconductor manufacturer who also formally certified ACM Research tools for use on its production line." On?Wednesday, the lawmakers noted that Intel faces special responsibilities because of its U.S. Government stake. Intel had resisted calls from President Donald Trump for his CEO to resign in August due to his alleged ties with China. They wrote: "This raises important questions about Intel’s fiduciary responsibilities and?approach towards safeguarding the public interests, including how?the company benefits American taxpayers and economic interests," They added that "Intel’s involvement with Chinese companies on the blacklist calls into question if taxpayer dollars are subsidizing activity which could directly threaten U.S. National Security and leadership in semiconductor manufacture." (Reporting and editing by Diane Craft, Thomas Derpinghaus and Alexandra Alper)
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UKMTO: Crew safe after explosion reported near Kuwait
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said that a tanker anchored off Kuwait saw a large explosion on its port side and was taking in water. UKMTO reported that the master saw a'small craft' leaving the area after the explosion, which took place 30 nautical miles (56 km) southeast of Kuwait Mubarak al Kabeer Port in the Gulf. In an advisory note, it stated that "there is oil in the water from a cargo tank, which could have some impact on the environment, the vessel has taken in water, no fires were reported, and the crew was'safe. Kuwait's interior ministry stated in a statement issued later that the incident occurred outside of Kuwait's territorial water, at least 60 kilometers (37 miles) from Mubarak Al Kabeer port.
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UKMTO: Crew safe after explosion reported near Kuwait
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said that a?tanker anchored off?Kuwait saw?a 'large explosion?" on its port side, and was taking in water. UKMTO reported that the master saw a small boat leave the area after the explosion. The explosion occurred in the Gulf 30 nautical miles (56 kilometers) south of Kuwait's Mubarak al Kabeer port. In an advisory note, it stated that "there is oil in the water from a cargo tank, which could have an environmental impact. The vessel has taken water on board, but there are no reported fires and the crew members are safe." Kuwait's interior ministry stated in a statement later that the incident occurred outside of Kuwait's territorial water, at least 60 kilometers (37 miles) from Mubarak Al Kabeer port.
Chinese tourists extend Lunar New Year holiday to Russia and Thailand
Travel agencies report that more Chinese tourists will?travel abroad during the extra-long Lunar New Year holiday next week, with top destinations including Russia, Australia,?Thailand, and South Korea. However, Japan has lost its shine.
The Lunar New Year or Spring Festival is one of China’s longest holidays. It runs for nine days from February 15 this year, which is a day more than usual. This marks the beginning of the Year of the Horse according to the Chinese zodiac.
Families from all over the world and in the United States gather to celebrate this holiday. This boosts spending at restaurants, cinemas, and shops.
Record Trips Expected Over 40-Day Travel Rush
China is expecting a record number of passenger trips, 9.5 billion, during the 40-day travel rush. This is up from 9.02 billion in last year's event. Officials hope that this year's extended event will encourage more tourists to visit their home country or go abroad.
Spring Tour, the travel division of Spring Airlines, based in Shanghai, said that Thailand has regained its position as the top outbound destination due to the weather.
Many people seem to hope to put their problems behind them, even if only for a short time, amid an uncertain economic outlook. Uneven growth following the COVID-19 pandemic has also contributed to job insecurity.
McKinsey said in an August update that Chinese consumers have "quietly moved?on" highlighting deeper changes in the way China consumes.
The domestic?leisure market is split this year between snowy and warm destinations. Trips to tropical Hainan Island and the northeastern Changbai Mountain are popular, said Zhou, deputy general manager of Spring Tour.
Bookings for Russia and northern Europe have increased by more than twofold since last year.
According to Sienna Parulis Cook, director of marketing and communications at Dragon Trail Research, "for the remainder of the year we will probably see an increase in Chinese travel to Russia."
She attributed the rise in popularity to Moscow's decision, made in December, to waive visas for Chinese visitors.
Visitor numbers to Australia are up by a third after the re-bound drive.
Trip.com Group, China's largest online travel agency, reported that a surge in long-haul tourism has increased visitors to Australia more than 100 percent over the previous year.
Aviation intelligence firm IBA reported that seat capacity on international flights, both inbound as well as outbound, increased by 9% over the past year.
In a report released before the holiday, it stated that "the international market?plays an increasingly important part in Spring Festival travel." It also noted that seat kilometers available on international flights make up approximately half of their total capacity.
For other destinations, it's not as rosy.
The lingering tensions with Japan have eroded the appeal of Japan for Chinese visitors who would normally make it their top choice.
Flight data from 2026 shows that travel to Japan is down sharply due to the strains in ties with China and its safety warnings for travellers. This has led?airlines? to change their policies and offer more refunds for Japan routes.
Flight Master, a travel data provider, reported that in the week beginning February 2, there were 49.2% fewer flights between China?and?Japan than a year ago.
All flights were cancelled on 58 routes which operated during the Spring Festival last year, when Trip.com listed Japan as one of the top overseas destinations along with Thailand and other markets in Asia. Reporting by Julie Zhu and Sophie Yu, both in Hong Kong; editing by Casey Hall and Clarence Fernandez.
(source: Reuters)