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China's retaliatory duties on crude are likely to lower US exports in 2025

After a plateau in growth last year, China's retaliatory duties on the United States could cause U.S. crude oil exports to fall by 2025 for first time since COVID-19.

Since the lifting of a federal ban of 40 years on exporting domestic oil, U.S. crude exports have increased more than ten times. This has allowed the United States to become the third largest exporter in the world behind Saudi Arabia, and Russia. It also helped the United States reduce the global impact of the production cuts made by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies.

According to Kpler's ship tracking data, China's appetite has decreased for U.S. Oil in recent years due to the discounted Russian and Iranian crude oil. However, in 2024 exports reached 166,000 barrels a day, which accounted for almost 5% of U.S. Crude exports.

According to Kpler the growth of U.S. crude oil exports stalled by 2024. The increase was only 0.6%, or 24,000 barrels per day, to a total of 3.8 million barrels per day, as U.S. firms kept a lid off fracking production due to concerns about global demand.

Matt Smith, a Kpler analyst, said that China's share in U.S. crude exports was "not an unimportant amount". He also suggested that the international demand for American oil exports is peaking, and "China's retaliatory duties could further accelerate this."

Around 48% of U.S. crudes imported by China are medium density grades with higher sulfur contents, such as Southern Green Canyon and Mars. These grades are considered to be medium-sour. Analysts said that this type of crude would be ideal for U.S. refining plants to process, and it could find domestic buyers easily, especially if tariffs are imposed on Canada and Mexico.

"Medium-sour barrels are welcomed in the U.S. Gulf Coast." Rohit Rathod is a market analyst with energy research firm Vortexa. He believes that refiners will need it, and U.S. oil exports could fall to 3.6 million barrels per day this year if Canadian and Mexican tariffs come into effect and medium-sour oil is retained.

About 44% of China’s crude imports were lighter density, low-sulfur types like West Texas Intermediate produced by Texas, also known as sweet, light grades. Analysts said that this type of oil would be in demand by European and Indian refiners and could continue to export.

Kpler reports that the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port handled almost half of all exports into China in 2013. The company did not respond to a request for comment immediately.

Kpler data revealed that another 25% of U.S. imports from China were shipped by Enbridge, a Texas facility located near Corpus Christi.

A source familiar with Enbridge Ingelside operations stated, "The market for light sweets is so liquid and wide that we don't think it will have an impact on the exports." Last year, less than 15 percent of the site’s exports came from China.

Enbridge didn't immediately respond to a comment request sent outside business hours.

Kpler reports that Occidental Petroleum is one of the biggest sellers of U.S. Crude to China. In 2024 it sold 13 cargoes worth of sweet, light WTI Midland Oil to China. Occidental didn't immediately respond to a comment request.

China's impact will be muted, as U.S. crude imports made up only 1.7% of its total imports by 2024. This is equivalent to about $6 billion.

The expansion of the Trans Mountain Pipeline has helped China increase its imports to Canada by 30%. Arathy S. Somasekhar, Houston; Christian Schmollinger, editing.

(source: Reuters)