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Maguire: US tariff deal with Vietnam will expand trade, but there are obstacles.

The United States-Vietnam tariff agreement will lead to a rise in the trade volume between the two countries. It will also have an impact on the mix of energy sources that power the rapidly growing Vietnamese economy.

In a post on social media, U.S. president Donald Trump highlighted U.S. SUVs as potential beneficiaries of the deal. Meanwhile, U.S. energy companies will hope that Vietnam will become a major growth market for LNG.

In the short term, however, both sellers of bulky passenger trucks as well as expensive super-chilled gasoline may be disappointed. Vietnam's economy is still heavily reliant upon cheap coal to generate domestic electricity and on nimble motorbikes for transportation.

As long as Vietnam continues to impose a 20% tariff on its main export market, the profits of corporations will be squeezed and the economy may lack the money to purchase the expensive goods that the U.S. hopes to sell.

Here are some key data points about vehicle ownership, energy generation and manufacturing output that can be used to monitor the trade and energy trends following tariff agreements.

2 WHEELS BETTER THEN 4

Many Vietnamese may want to own the SUVs President Trump wants to sell, but the vast majority of vehicles are motorcycles. Motorcycles make up over 90% of all vehicles registered in Vietnam.

World Bank data reveals that the motorcycle ownership rate is 518 per 1000 people while the car ownership rate is 22 per 1000.

Car sales in Vietnam are expected to increase sharply as the economy grows. This is good news for global auto exporters.

The narrow streets of the country and limited parking in cities make it difficult to find space for a small vehicle.

The U.S. SUV market will be a tough one for U.S. automakers hoping to gain traction in Vietnam. China, the world's largest car manufacturer, as well as Japan and South Korea, already have strong presences in Vietnam.

COAL CRUTCH

The energy-intensive manufacturing industry of Vietnam has also encouraged U.S. LNG sellers to be optimistic about Vietnam's potential for growth.

There are several reasons why Vietnam's appetite for LNG will only continue to grow modestly.

First, coal is a cheaper fuel than imported natural gas, which costs more.

Over half of the country's coal imports come from China, a neighbour and top coal exporter.

According to the Energy Institute, the production of natural gases in the country has been steadily declining over the last decade because the gas fields are being depleted. By 2024, it will be 40% lower than in 2015.

Ember data shows that the combination of a coal-based power system and declining natural gas reserves have squeezed gas out of electricity. The gas share is now between 7% and 9%, compared to 12 to 15% by 2022.

According to Global Energy Monitor, the reduced gas consumption has slowed down gas infrastructure development. No gas power plants are currently being built in Vietnam.

GEM data show that there are around 4 gigawatts of LNG import capacity in construction and another 17 GW under so-called "pre-construction", which is what is driving LNG exporters' optimism.

There are also 53 GW in pre-construction of wind power and 5 GW utility-scale solar. These projects are driven by clean energy policy set by the government, with support from civilians who desire lower pollution.

Solar panels and solar components are also produced in large quantities by the country, allowing utilities to install clean energy equipment more quickly than with any other source.

It is possible that this could discourage future interest in expanding gas handling capacity in Vietnam, despite U.S. hopes of higher LNG exports.

MANUFACTURING DRIVER

The fast-growing sector of manufacturing in Vietnam will have a major impact on the country's power needs and mix.

According to Ember, the rapid expansion of production lines in the last decade has resulted a more than doubled total electricity demand between 2014 and 2024.

The need to compete with other manufacturers in China and abroad has put pressure on power companies to keep their energy prices low.

This has led to a stronger grip of coal on the power sector in Vietnam, as well as a rapid adoption of low-cost home-made solar system.

In the future, gas imports from China will increase as its heavy industry, including producers of chemicals, plastics, cars and other products, continues to grow.

Most manufacturers rely on electricity, not gas, for their power. Future growth will be driven by coal and renewables. These are seen as being more cost-effective than building new gas stations.

Since 2022, the country has increased production of cables and components for the power sector as part of a global shift to production outside China.

This has helped to accelerate the drive for electrification at the lowest possible cost, but may also limit Vietnam’s demand for LNG and expensive U.S. imports.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)