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Maguire: Trump's efforts to bring coal back may be in ashes

The U.S. president Donald Trump has highlighted the coal industry as one of the key drivers for U.S. dominance in energy. However, there are no new coal plants currently under construction in America and utilities have found cheaper and faster ways to increase power supplies.

In the early months of Trump's new term, the president has issued several executive orders as well as allocated federal funding to revive the coal mining and energy sectors.

U.S. utilities prioritize renewables, battery power, gas, and nuclear energy over new coal-fired capacities based on cost and efficiency.

The coal export market is also limited in growth potential. This is because Australia and Indonesia, who are much larger exporters, have a quicker and cheaper way to reach key buyers in Asia. Asia, however, has the only sustained increase in demand for coal.

Even with the strong support of the federal government, it is likely that the U.S. Coal sector will struggle to achieve any sustained growth in the near-to-medium term due to the global shift towards cleaner energy sources.

AVOIDING AGING OUT

The U.S. has retired six times as many coal power plants than it has built in this century. This highlights the magnitude of the challenges facing even the most passionate coal bulls who are trying to revive the industry.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM) data shows that between 2000 and 2024 in the United States nearly 166,000 megawatts of coal-fired capacity will be retired.

Even though 26,000 MW worth of new coal plants in the U.S. have been built since 2000, Sandy Creek Energy Station was the first to come online more than a decade ago.

According to Ember, this has led to a 42% drop in coal-fired power generation in the United States over the past quarter century.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, more than 80% all coal-fired power plants in the United States were built between 1950-1990.

Over 75% of remaining plants have already exceeded their lifespan by 40 years or more.

Some power networks delayed the closing of older plants, arguing that they would prevent a potential shortage of power.

The Trump administration has also exempted a number of coal plants from the new emission standards that would otherwise have forced them into closure within the next decade.

The power sector has been consuming less coal, as more plants are being retired and replaced with other types of generation.

The Energy Institute reports that since 2000, the amount of coal consumed by the electricity sector has decreased by 65%.

The utilities are not interested in building new coal-fired power plants because there are so many other options that generate electricity more quickly, cheaper and with less emissions.

COAL CRUTCH

EIA data show that the drop in coal-fired U.S. electricity has resulted in a sharp decline in domestic coal mining output. It has fallen by more than half since 2000, to just under half a billion tons in 2024.

In 2023, the states with the highest coal production were Wyoming (237 millions tons), West Virginia (85.5 million tons), Pennsylvania (43.5 million tons), and Kentucky (28 tons).

EIA data show that the decline in mine production has led to a steep drop in the number of coal miners. The EIA shows that this figure peaked in 2011 at around 96,000, but will fall to about 45,500 in 2023.

Layoffs have affected every major coal-mining state, but some are harder hit than others. Kentucky's coal employment has dropped by more than 70% since 2011. Pennsylvania and Virginia also saw a drop of nearly half.

EXPORT CHALLENGE

These mass layoffs, affecting primarily Republican "red" state coal mines, have made the industry a powerful political force. Candidates are now able to highlight their pro-industry credentials.

Trump has been a great example of this. The Trump administration, in addition to encouraging power networks in their use of coal for generation, has approved recent mine expansions in federal land to boost supplies to Japan and South Korea.

Kpler data shows that 80% of the global coal consumption comes from Asia. This makes it a logical choice to target this region, given its buyers account for more than half of U.S. thermal coking coal shipments.

The U.S. can only increase its market share so far in the region, since rival exporters like Indonesia have a huge advantage when it comes to shipping costs and times.

According to LSEG, the journey time of a coal shipment from Westshore Export Port in British Columbia – the main exit port for coal mined throughout the Western U.S. – to Japan takes around 15 days.

The journey from Indonesia's largest coal exporting point to Japan takes nine days.

Indonesian coal exporters are able to offer a combination of lower coal prices and higher cargo volumes. This is a very attractive package for large scale importers.

This means that U.S. suppliers will only be able eke out piecemeal deals with Asian buyers while larger exporters are able to secure more regular and large trade flows for utilities in the region.

This will leave the coal mining industry struggling to sustain demand for its product, regardless of Washington DC's support.

These are the opinions of the columnist, an author for.

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(source: Reuters)