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The 'amazing summit' between Trump and Xi brings a tactical truce but not a major reset

The U.S. president Donald Trump hailed a recent meeting with China's Xi Jinping, calling it "amazing". However, the agreement reached by the two leaders appears to be little more than a fragile ceasefire in a long-running trade war whose root causes remain unresolved.

The framework announced Thursday, which includes China resuming purchases of soybeans, suspending rare earth export restrictions for one year, and the U.S. lower tariffs on China, reverts to the relationship that existed prior to Trump's "Liberation Day", offensive that triggered a tit-fortat escalation.

The deal reveals the fundamental mismatch in what Washington wants versus what Beijing will offer. The major issues that Trump cited when he announced his tariffs on April were absent from the discussions - China’s industrial policies and manufacturing overcapacity as well as its export-led model of growth.

What are we discussing? "We are talking about the de-escalation measures that both parties have taken since Trump's administration began in this type of escalating trading war," said Emily Kilcrease at the Center for a New American Security.

The result highlights the robustness and flexibility of Xi’s new approach in dealing with the U.S. It relies on a wide toolbox of tools like export controls that are quickly deployed to respond to each move made by the Trump Administration.

Unofficially, an official who was briefed about the discussions said that the Chinese had realistic expectations for the meeting - which did not include the fundamental resetting of bilateral ties.

The official who refused to be identified or named because he wasn't authorised to talk to the media said that they were happy with Trump’s tone and the way he framed the meeting.

The official said that China views this as an important step towards a larger meeting, where they could stabilize their relationship.

'WORLD-CLASS LEADERS'

Experts say that given the long-simmering conflict, the fact that the two leaders met and agreed on two follow-ups next year is a welcome reprieve for multinational corporations.

Xi said that the "China's Development and Renewal" are compatible with the goal of President Trump of 'Making America great again'.

He said he would be willing to work alongside Trump to "create a favorable environment for both nations' development and lay a solid basis for China-U.S. Relations."

Trump left the meeting glowing and chatting with Xi, leaning in to him as they both left. He later called Xi the "great leader of a wonderful country" and said that this was how two superpowers around the world should treat each other.

The deal and deal-making structures function as engagement mechanisms between the two countries so that they can address issues appropriately and adjust their interests in the future to ensure people continue to talk to each other, said Bo Zhengyuan of research consultancy Plenum, based in Shanghai.

Trump announced that the tariffs on Chinese imports will be reduced to 47%, from 57%. The rate of levies relating to the trade in fentanyl-precursor chemicals would also be halved to 10% from 20%.

Trump acknowledged that the issue is complex, but said that Xi would work "very, very hard" to stop the flow of chemicals used in the production of deadly opioids that are the leading cause of American drug overdose deaths. He said that the tariffs were reduced because "I believe they are taking strong actions."

In a call on Monday with Marco Rubio, the U.S. Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, China's foreign minister Wang Yi emphasized that Trump and Xi are "world-class" leaders.

In unusually effusive words for a Chinese official, he said to his American counterpart: "Their mutual respect and long-term commitment have become the most important strategic asset in U.S. China relations."

'DIFFICULT SITUATION'

Both sides benefit from the deal: Trump wins before his April visit to Beijing, and Xi is relieved of U.S. high tariffs which have been putting pressure on Chinese producers.

Even this tactic detente is not enough.

China's

latest rare earths licensing

The curbs have been delayed but not removed. However, the earlier restrictions on critical minerals which upended the global trade still remain. This leaves U.S. manufacturers with a continuing uncertainty about sourcing essential materials.

Joe Mazur is a geopolitics analyst with Trivium China. He says, "I believe that this year's events have been a more-or-less total vindication of China’s strategy to never strike first, but always strike back."

It's clear that China's leverage is rare earths. The U.S. doesn't appear to have any similar leverage or a way to break the stranglehold at the moment.

The agreement shows how the relationship between two of the largest economies in the world has changed dramatically since Trump's term began. In his first term, negotiators had produced a comprehensive document of 96 pages covering intellectual property rights, banking and agriculture.

The talks this time were much less intense and both sides offered only brief readouts, which mainly focused on holding back the threats that had been made prior to the talks.

Da Wei is the director of Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy. He warned that repeated escalations may exhaust Xi and Trump’s personal relationship.

He said that if tensions escalated many times between the two leaders, their patience and trust would likely run out. Then, we'll be in a very tough situation. (Editing by Antoni Sladoskowski and Raju Gopikrishnan).

(source: Reuters)