Latest News

ROI-Global coal exports post rare decline in 2025 on China cuts: Maguire

The first decline in global thermal coal shipments - used in power plants - has been recorded since 2020, due to lower coal-fired electricity generation in major Asian markets.

Data from commodities intelligence company Kpler show that total?seaborne?exports of so-called Steam coal will be around 945 million metric tonnes in 2025. This represents a 5% drop or about?50million ton from 2024.

The main reason for the decline was a 7% decrease in imports from countries in Asia, the top coal-consuming region. This suggests that the global export volume of coal may have reached its peak and continue to shrink.

ASIAN DOMINANCE

The concentration of coal shipments is evident in the fact that 89% all thermal coal imported for this year came from Asia.

The total imports of thermal coal fell by 7%, or 60 million tons from the 2024 figures.

China was this year's top coal importer, with a total of 305 million tonnes. India (157 millions tons), Japan (100,00 tons), South Korea (76,000 tons), and Vietnam (45 tons) were all close behind.

Only two of the five largest coal-importing markets, South Korea and Vietnam, saw an increase in their imports for the year. This shows the depressed tone of the coal market, even in the region that consumes the most coal.

While other countries such as?Malaysia and Thailand, and Turkey, have also seen an increase in their coal imports year over year, China and India remain the two main drivers of global coal import trends.

CHINA AND INDIA IN FOCUS

China and India, the two largest thermal coal importers, accounted for 48 percent of all thermal imports. Both countries registered a contraction in imports this year as a result of heightened domestic coal production combined with increased power supply from other sources.

China's thermal imports dropped by 12%, or almost 43 million tons in 2025 compared to the previous year. This equates to 305 millions tons. India's thermal imports fell by 3%, or 4.3 million tonnes to 157 million.

China and India both have government policies that encourage domestic coal production. This generates jobs, but they also face the danger of an overproduction of low grade coal that increases pollution levels when it is burned.

China's ongoing war against overcapacity will likely lead to a shrinkage of domestic coal production in the coming years, which in turn could limit further declines in coal imports in the near-to-medium term.

China's rapid rollouts of clean energy - including record deployments of solar and nuclear power - are expected to continue to shrink coal's share in the domestic power mix.

Data from the energy think tank Ember show that coal's share in China's electricity production has dropped to a new record low of just 55.3% in 2025. This is down from 59% in 2024.

In India, the combination of record coal production in India and declining coal consumption in electricity generation has resulted in a rare issuance for coal export permits.

These export permits are likely to increase competition between exporters in early 2026. They could also become more common if mine production increases continue to be maintained while the domestic demand for coal to generate electricity continues to decline.

In 2025, coal has produced just over 70% of India's electric power. This compares to a share of more than 77% in the last two years.

The rapid roll-out of solar and wind farms in India, along with the highest hydro dam generation in more than six year's time has led to coal's loss as India's largest generator.

Further coal cuts could be made in India, both for the coal share of the mix of generation and the total coal consumption.

This could lead to India exporting even more coal in the near future, which would reduce the profits of other coal exporters like Indonesia and Australia.

Over time, any sustained decline in coal consumption in China, India, and other former major coal consumers, will likely result in a steady shrinkage of coal export volumes, and a wider contraction of the coal industry.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

You like this article? Check it out

Open Interest

The new global financial commentary source (ROI) is your go-to for all the latest news and analysis. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis on everything from soybeans to swap rates. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on

You can find us on LinkedIn.

(source: Reuters)