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ROI-Global coal exports post rare decline in 2025 on China cuts: Maguire

The first decline in global thermal coal shipments - used in power plants - has been recorded since 2020, due to lower coal-fired electricity generation in major Asian markets.

Data from commodities intelligence firm Kpler indicates that total seaborne exports for so-called steam coal are expected to be 945 million tons in 2025. This represents a drop of 5%, or about 50 million tons, from 2024.

The main driver of the decline was a 7% decrease in imports from countries in Asia, the region that consumes the most coal. This suggests that the global export volume of coal may have reached its peak and continue to contract.

ASIAN DOMINANCE

The concentration of coal shipments is evident in the fact that 89% all thermal coal imported for this year came from Asia.

The total imports of thermal coal fell by 7%, or 60 million tons from the 2024 figures.

China ranked as the largest coal importer in this year's figures, with a total of 305 million metric tons. India was second (157 million metric tons), followed by Japan (100 metric tons), South Korea 76 million tonne and Vietnam 45 tonne.

Only two of the five biggest coal import markets, South Korea and Vietnam, posted an increase in annual imports. This highlights the depressed tone of coal demand, even in the region that consumes the most coal.

While other countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, and Turkey have also seen an increase in their coal imports over the past year, China and India remain the two main drivers of global coal import trends.

CHINA AND INDIA IN FOCUS

China and India, the two largest thermal coal importers, accounted for 48% of total thermal coal imports. Both countries registered a contraction in imports this year as a result of combining increased domestic coal production with greater power supply from other sources.

China's thermal imports dropped by 12%, or almost 43 million tons in 2025 from the previous year. This is a drop of 305 million tonnes. India's thermal imports fell by 3%, or 4.3 million tonnes to 157 million.

China and India both have policies that support coal production at home, creating jobs. However, both countries also face the danger of an overproduction of low grade coal, which increases pollution when burned.

China's ongoing war against overcapacity will likely lead to a shrinkage of domestic coal production in the coming years, which in turn could limit further declines in coal imports in the near-to-medium term.

China's rapid rollouts of clean energy - including record deployments of solar and nuclear power - are expected to continue to shrink coal's share in the domestic power mix.

Data from the energy think tank Ember show that coal's share in China's electricity production has dropped to a new record low of just 55.3% in 2025. This is down from 59% in 2014, and nearly 60% in 2013.

In India, the combination of record coal production in India and declining coal consumption in electricity generation has resulted in a rare issuance for coal export permits.

These export permits are likely to increase competition between exporters in early 2026. They could also become more frequent if the mine output increases continue to be sustained, while the domestic coal use for electricity production continues to decline.

In 2025, coal will generate just under 70% (compared to 77% in the last two years) of India's total electricity.

The rapid rollout of solar and wind farms in India, along with the highest hydro dam generation for more than six years, has led to coal's loss as India's largest generator.

Further coal cuts could be made in India, both for the coal share and the total amount of coal used.

This could lead to India exporting even more coal in the near future, which would reduce the profits of other 'coal exporters' such as Indonesia and Australia.

Over time, any sustained decline in coal consumption in China, India, and other former major coal consumers, will likely result in a steady shrinkage of coal export volumes, and a wider contraction of the coal industry.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)