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Maguire: How China is filling the energy gaps left by the US-Iran conflict.

Since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began over a year ago, the world's biggest energy importer and consumer has changed its supplier mix to respond to the turbulence in the Middle East oil, gas and fuel flows.

Kpler, a commodities intelligence company, shows that China will import roughly half its total crude oil, refined fuels and liquefied gas (LNG) as well as liquefied petrol gas (LPG), from the Middle East by 2025.

The onset of the?U.S. The war between Israel and the United States against Iran has slowed down tanker shipping from the Middle East into other regions. This has forced China and other major importers of energy to'search for alternative sources'.

This article will show you how China has historically relied on Middle East energy products and which countries are increasing their shipments to China now that the war against Iran has stopped all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

CRUDE OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS

Kpler data indicates that China will import 642 million tons of crude and refined fuels in 2025. Of these, 317 million tons, or 49.4%, are from Middle Eastern suppliers.

The Middle East is the only region that comes close to meeting China's energy import needs. South America ranks second with a share of 12%, while East Asia and West Africa each have a share of about 8.5%.

The Middle East will supply around 52% (or 1.9 billion barrels) of China's total crude oil imports by 2025.

The Middle East's share in China's total imports of oil has plummeted due to the reduction of outbound oil shipments since the beginning of the war at the end February. It fell to a record low of 31% only in May.

The total crude oil exports to China from the Middle East were 581 millions barrels between January and May. This represents a 28% drop from the same period in 2025.

China is increasing imports from South America, Eastern Europe and Russia to make up for the shortfalls in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Brazil and Russia have both seen a strong increase year-over-year so far this 2026.

China's total crude oil imports through the first five month of 2026 are roughly 10% lower than the same period in 2025. This shows China's ongoing difficulties replacing Middle Eastern supply.

China's fuel imports have decreased by 11% from January to May, compared with the same period in 2025. They now total around 51 million barrels.

Kpler reports that Middle Eastern suppliers will account for 41% of China’s total imported refined products in 2025. However, they supplied less than 1% of the product in May due to the closure of shipping routes.

China's fuel exports to the Middle East have dropped by 20% from January to May to 19.2 million barrels. Imports from other regions are also down around 4% compared to last year, to 31.6 million barrels.

Algeria and Egypt have both seen a steep increase in fuel exports from China in 2026.

LNG & LPG

In 2025, China imported about 40% of its LPG and LNG supplies from Middle Eastern countries. The closure of outbound traffic has affected China's gas market.

China's total LNG and LPG imports from the Middle East fell by 43% between January and May to just over 9 million metric tonnes from 15 million tons in the same period last year.

The total gas shipments of all other regions also decreased this year but only by 12%. This shows that the Middle East has seen a much greater drop in volumes than other suppliers.

Total LNG exports to China from the Middle East during January-May are estimated at around 6 million tonnes, or about 2.5 million tonnes, or approximately 30% less than in the same months of 2025.

Australasia, another major LNG exporting region, has also seen a year-over-year decline in LNG sales to China. This is primarily due to the continued weakness in China's key industrial sectors so far in 2026.

China's total LNG exports are still down only 15% this year. This means that the Middle East has seen a drop in imports twice as large as China's total LNG exports.

China's total LPG imports - used mostly by petrochemical companies and rural areas to heat and cook - are down by about 25% compared with a year earlier.

The war against Iran has not had a material impact on China's imports of LPG from the Middle East.

The country's chemical sector is still struggling, and this means that the overall demand for LPG has remained muted in comparison to last year. Meanwhile, demand for household heating will have peaked in early January, at the height of winter.

The Middle East conflict could have a greater impact on China's LPG export volumes if the Middle East conflict continues for several months longer and impacts restocking patterns ahead of winter next year.

These are the opinions of a columnist who writes for.

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(source: Reuters)