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Fuel costs and China's top airline's Q1 profits cloud the outlook

China's top three state-owned carriers returned to profitability in the first quarter. This was due to the robust demand for travel during the Lunar New Year and the recovery of global travel. However, the outlook has been overshadowed by higher fuel prices because of the war in Iran.

China Southern Airlines, based in Guangzhou, reported a net loss of 747 millions yuan for the same period of last year.

Air China, the country's flagship carrier, posted a net profit of 1.71 billion Yuan compared to a loss last year of 2.04 billion Yuan. Shanghai-headquartered China Eastern Airlines reported a net profit of 1.63 billion yuan, versus a year-earlier loss of 995 million yuan.

China Southern, Air China, and?China Eastern all saw their Hong Kong shares drop by as much as 2,7%, 2,9%, and 2.3%, respectively.

China Southern and its subsidiary Xiamen Airlines signed agreements with Airbus on Wednesday to buy 102 and 35 A320neo aircraft respectively.

Catalogue prices for the 137 planes are around $21.4 billion. Deliveries will be made in phases between 2028 and 2032. China Eastern announced a deal last month with Airbus for the purchase of 101 A320neos in a deal valued at $15.8billion.

The three airlines said that a renewed focus of the international market is a key growth driver, as they are operating'some flight routes via Russia which bypass the Middle East.

Air China's international passenger traffic increased by 28% in March. China Southern also saw a rise of 23%, and China Eastern experienced a rise of 22%.

Bank of America recently released a report predicting that Chinese airline capacity will grow by 13% annually in summer 2026. This would bring it to 91% of the levels of 2019. Europe and Australasia are expected to be the main growth corridors.

China-North America routes are still lagging behind, with capacity for China-U.S.A. and China Canada at only 29% and 40% respectively of the 2019 levels.

HSBC analysts have warned that in a recent report, the Big 3 are "adversely positioned compared to peers due to a structurally price-sensitive travel cohort" in China. They also added that "rising costs of fuel weigh more on Big 3 profits as they struggle pass costs on without losing customers."

The global airline industry was expecting record profits in 2026 of $41 billion, but the doubled price of jet fuel has now put this at risk.

Jet fuel prices are 'nearly twice as high, outpacing an increase of?roughly 65 percent in crude oil prices. Major mainland Chinese airlines have increased domestic fuel surcharges by six times.

The major airlines have increased the surcharges for domestic flights to 60 yuan (8.80 dollars) for flights less than 800 kilometers and 120 yuan (120 dollars) if they exceed 800 kilometers, up from 10 and 20 yuan respectively.

Willie Walsh of the International Air Transport Association warned on Tuesday that the jet-fuel crisis could first hit Asia as a shortage in the summer peak season in the northern hemisphere becomes a growing worry.

The impact on routes has been rapid. Flight Master data shows that several?Southeast Asia route were cancelled between April 1, 2012 and?12. These include Xian - Phuket, Chongqing - Phuket and Hohhot - Bangkok. On Oceania, the cancellation rates were 83.3% for Guangzhou to Darwin, 57.1% for Hangzhou to Auckland and 50% for Wuhan to Sydney.

Li Hanming is an independent expert in China's aviation sector. He said that these routes were no longer viable commercially due to higher oil prices.

Li added that "carriers cannot really raise their fares, either," because it would dampen the demand. Reporting by Sophie Yu and Julie Zhu in Beijing, and Donny and Donny in Hong Kong. Editing by Raju Gopikrishnan.

(source: Reuters)