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Trade barriers, plane delivery delays challenge global airline growth
On Monday, the head of the global airline industry said that increasing trade barriers could harm the economy and air travel sector. He also stated that "unacceptable delays" in plane deliveries were hampering growth plans during a period of record passenger numbers. IATA (International Air Transport Association) has slashed its key profit forecast for the industry in 2025, blaming rising trade tensions and a decline in consumer confidence. Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General, said that flying is a form of connectivity which makes the world more prosperous. He made this statement at the annual meeting of the group in New Delhi. "That is in stark contrast to the isolationism of trade barriers, and the fragmentation multilateral system based on rules. They destroy wealth and lower standards of living. This is a very important message for the times in which we live," he said. The tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed have caused consumers to postpone or cancel their travel plans, especially in the United States. The threat also includes a pact that was signed by more than 30 nations to eliminate all duties on aircraft parts and components. Walsh claimed that there is no evidence to suggest aircraft prices have increased because of tariffs. However, he added that airlines will resist any attempts by aerospace manufacturers (or their agents) to increase prices. He also called on governments to keep aerospace out from trade wars. IATA represents more than 300 airlines, which account for over 80% of the global traffic. Walsh stated that the progress made in environmental sustainability is not as good as it could be. He criticized energy firms for failing to produce enough sustainable aviation fuel, which is made of waste oil and biomass and costs more than traditional jet fuel. IATA has warned that airlines may struggle to reach their sustainability goals. But Walsh said the industry still aims for net-zero emission by 2050, based on a gradual shift to SAF. Delivery Delays After a recovery in the passenger market following the pandemic, more people are now flying. However, airline growth is being hindered by prolonged plane delivery delays as well as supply chain bottlenecks that increase maintenance and repair times. Walsh said that predictions of delays in aircraft deliveries throughout the decade were "absolutely unacceptable". Walsh said that the airline industry is evaluating its legal options in regards to the delays but prefers to work collaboratively with manufacturers. He said, "The manufacturing industry is in a bad state." IATA reported that the number of 2025 deliveries was 26% lower than what had been promised a year earlier, but at 1,692, this would still be the most new planes delivered since 2018. IATA's update on its industry outlook stated that "further downward revisions will be likely given the supply chain issues expected to persist through 2025, and perhaps even the next decade." Tim Clark, the president of Dubai's Emirates Airlines, the largest international airline in the world, stated on Sunday that pandemics were no longer acceptable as an excuse for delays. He challenged the planemakers to accept responsibility. Flyadeal, a Saudi low-cost carrier, also expressed similar frustration. "Delays have become inexcusable." To be honest, we are getting more and more agitated because of the lack of transparency. How can we plan anything else? "It's just beyond a joke," Flyadeal CEO Steven Greenway said. Boeing, the U.S. aircraft manufacturer, is trying to stabilize and ramp up its production after a quality problem and a strike last year slowed down output. Airbus, Europe's largest aircraft manufacturer, warned airlines last week that they could face another three years in delivery delays. In spite of the challenges, airlines are still seeking to buy more planes in order to meet future demand for travel. Air India, a Tata Group company, is in negotiations with Airbus or Boeing to place a massive new order, including 200 additional single-aisle aircraft. This deal will be a top-up of a huge 2023 deal as the former government carrier pursues an ambitious multi-billion dollar revamp. (Reporting and writing by Lisa Barrington in New Delhi, editing by Jamie Freed.)
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What is the next Polish president Karol Nawrocki's name?
Karol Nawrocki cultivated an image of a tough guy during his campaign by posting videos at boxing and shooting ranges. Nawrocki, who is running for the top position in Poland, met Donald Trump and got the support of the U.S. President for his campaign. Nawrocki has won the election according to the final results of the electoral commission with 50.89% votes. Nawrocki, unlike other eurosceptics from central Europe such as the Slovak prime minister Robert Fico and Hungary's Viktor Orban supports military aid for Ukraine to fight off Russia's 3-year-old invasion. He has stated that if elected he would oppose Ukraine's membership in Western alliances. This is a position meant to coincide with the declining support of Ukrainians by Poles who have taken in more than one million refugees across the border. While in power, his supporters in the Law and Justice party (PiS), had supported the fast-tracking of Kyiv's membership in NATO and the EU. Nawrocki critics claimed he was causing unrest over Ukrainian refugees, at a moment when the far right is highlighting migration and the cost of living. He cited the slogan of his campaign, Poland First. In April, he posted on social media: "Let's not only help others but also take care of ourselves." He will likely follow the same path as the outgoing president Andrzej duda, who is a PiS-aligned politician and has used his veto to stop the pro EU government from undoing the judicial reforms of the previous PiS administration. The EU claims that the PiS reforms have undermined the independence and integrity of the courts. The Fight in the Right The candidates fought to win the votes of those who supported other candidates during the first round. Slawomir Mentzen, who finished third in the first vote with 15%, was a prime example. Trzaskowski hoped to lure them in with the promise of deregulation. Nawrocki emphasized his qualifications as the head of the Institute of National Remembrance, support for gun ownership and traditional families, Christian values but also took a critical tone towards Ukraine in line with Mentzen. His wife Marta and his three children, who are all civil servants, were prominent in his campaign. Nawrocki has become a hot topic in the public eye after a series negative media reports. Questions were raised about his purchase of a flat by a pensioner, and he admitted to taking part in orchestrated fights. Nawrocki said, "All of my sports activities are based on my strength, my strength, my fists", when confronted with reports that he was involved in mass-organised fights between football hooligans. It was a fair contest, no matter what the form. Law and Justice supporters have accused the Polish special services and the liberal media of orchestrating the controversy. The government denies these allegations. Nawrocki described the election as a vote on the government. He called it a metropolitan elite that was out of touch with the people's concerns. On the campaign trail, he told the voters of Biala-Podlaska in eastern Poland: "I am just one of you."
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Vopak's Indian joint venture begins trading on Mumbai stock markets
Dutch tank storage company Vopak announced on Monday that its joint venture in India, Aegis Vopak Terminals has begun trading following its initial public offer. The group stated that the issue price of the IPO is 235 rupees per share ($2.75 USD), which is at the upper end of the previously-announced price range. Around 0539 GMT, the shares traded at 238.89 Rupees. Dick Richelle, CEO of the group, said that this offering "strongly supported Vopak's strategic expansion of our portfolio of industrial and gas terminals". Vopak said that the transaction would result in a dilution loss of approximately 110 million euros (125.09 millions dollars) which it will record in the second quarter. Vopak operates terminals in seven Indian port cities and is expecting to reap the benefits of India's dynamic economic growth. There are many other investment opportunities in the country, including the liquefied gas (LPG).
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Flyadeal CEO blasts Airbus for 'inexcusable delays'
The head of Saudi low-cost carrier flyadeal has criticised Airbus for its handling of the delays in narrow-body jets. He also expressed concern that this could affect newly ordered wide-body A330neos. Steven Greenway, CEO of Airbus, spoke about the delays at an IATA industry summit in New Delhi just weeks after announcing an order for ten A330neo aircraft. "Delays have become inexcusable." To be honest, we are getting more and more agitated because of the lack of transparency. How can we plan anything else? Greenway said, "It's just beyond a joke." In aircraft contracts, a non-excusable delays is used to trigger specific penalties for airlines. However, these are rare. Sources in the industry say that Jetmakers have always argued any delays caused due to supply chain issues are "excusable". He said that Airbus has some internal problems. Airbus refused to comment on the delays of narrow-body aircraft. Airbus has reported that supply chains have improved and said it was working to reduce the impact to customers. It is still aiming to deliver 820 aircraft this year. Flyadeal was also one of several airlines affected by the slowdown in engines arriving from CFM at the Airbus assembly lines. Greenway stated, "I've got two narrow-body jets sitting on the ground at Toulouse right now. They have been there for several months and no resolution is in sight." We were supposed to have four planes in the first half year. "We've had only two aircraft, and those two were also delayed." One A321neo is due to be delivered to Saudia's sister airline in the third quarter, and three more in the fourth. He said: "I'm not sure...the three that are in the last quarter will get through the line." "Don't you forget, these are delays on top delays." Safran, who co-owns CFM along with GE Aerospace said in April that CFM has seen improvements in its supply chains, and is poised to recover a slower start until 2025. Greenway's comments reveal the frustration of airline CEOs at their annual industry gathering about supply issues. He acknowledged that the aerospace sector had suffered a large exodus after COVID-19. But he added: "I think it's unforgivable that we're still not over the hump three or four years on." A330NEO UNCERTAINTY Last week, it was reported that Airbus warned airlines of a pattern in delays for the next three years. Lessors are predicting supply tensions throughout the next decade. Greenway expressed concern that the same problems could spread to wide-body A330neo after flyadeal announced an order for ten of the upgraded long haul jets in April. There have not been any reports of delays in delivery. "Our first aircraft was supposed to be on the production line by December next year. He said, "I don't know whether we'll see it or not." Airbus has said that it is unaware of any A330neo delay. Airline companies say that delays can disrupt important decisions, such as training pilots and crew and adding routes. "You can't prepare...I'm now assuming that there will be a delay if you choose the wide-body aircraft. Greenway explained that he was working with wet-lease companies to fill the gap. Cebu Pacific, the Philippine budget airline, announced last week that it would lease two A320s with crews to flyadeal for its lean months of July and August. This is a busy time for the Saudi carrier. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Reporting by Tim Hepher)
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Nawrocki, a Polish eurosceptic, wins the presidential vote according to the electoral commission
The electoral commission announced early Monday that Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the Polish nationalist opposition in the presidential election, won the second round with 50.89% of the votes. Rafal Trozaskowski, liberal Warsaw Mayor and ally of Donald Tusk's government, received 49.11%. Nawrocki (42), a eurosceptic history and amateur boxer, who ran a National Remembrance Institute, campaigned with a promise that economic and social policies would favour Poles, over other nationalities including refugees from the neighbouring Ukraine. The president has the power to veto any legislation. This vote was closely watched in Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and throughout the European Union. On the social media platform X Andrzej duda, who is also a conservative president, thanked Poles, for voting in such large numbers. The electoral commission reported a turnout of 71.31%. This is a record number for a second round presidential election. "Thank you! "Thank you!" The turnout. You have done your civic duty. You are responsible for Poland. Congratulations to the winner. "Stay strong Poland!" Duda wrote.
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Airlines raise concerns about the weakening global trade rules
The head of the global airline industry warned Monday that the growing barriers to trade could harm the economy and air travel. Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), said that flying is a form of connectivity that makes the world more prosperous. He made this statement at the annual meeting of the group in New Delhi. "That is in stark contrast to the isolationism, the trade barriers, and the fragmentation multilateral system based on rules. They destroy wealth and lower standards of living. This is a very important message for the times in which we live," he said. IATA cut a key profit forecast for the industry in 2025 on Monday. It blamed trade tensions and a declining consumer confidence. They also criticized "unacceptable delays" in jetliner delivery that had hindered growth plans. The tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed have caused consumers to postpone or cancel their travel plans, especially in the United States. The threat also includes a decades-old agreement between over 30 countries that eliminates duties on aircraft parts and components. Walsh called on governments to "keep aerospace out of trade battles". IATA represents more than 300 airlines, which account for over 80% of the global traffic. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; Tim Hepher)
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Global airlines cut their profit forecast for 2025 due to trade tensions and supply issues
Global airlines shaved a key forecast for 2025 industry-wide profits on Monday, blaming trade tensions and declining consumer confidence, while hitting out at "unacceptable" delays in jetliner deliveries that have hindered their growth plans. The IATA industry body now expects global airlines to post a combined profit of $36.0 billion this year, down slightly from a previous forecast of $36.6 billion in December, before U.S. President Donald Trump took office. He has since launched a trade war and tightened enforcement of U.S. border controls. But airline profits are still set to rise from $32.4 billion last year, helped by lower oil prices and record passenger numbers. The International Air Transport Association issued the widely watched forecasts, which give clues to the wider economy, at an annual meeting of its more than 300 member airlines in New Delhi. "Earning a $36 billion profit is significant. But that equates to just $7.20 per passenger per segment," IATA Director General Willie Walsh said in a statement. That is a thin buffer against any future demand shocks or taxes as the industry returns to a more normal regime after a sharp bounceback in air travel from the pandemic, he said. Strong employment and easing inflation are expected to push revenues up 1.3% compared to last year. But airlines will have to wait a little longer to hit the $1 trillion mark after IATA trimmed its prior forecast for industry-wide revenues by 2.1% to $979 billion, which would still be an all-time record. Trump's sweeping tariffs have stoked fears of an economic slowdown and squeezed discretionary spending, prompting many consumers especially in the United States to delay or scale back travel plans. Meanwhile, aircraft delivery delays have hampered airlines' ability to meet soaring travel demand in certain regions, while driving up operating costs as carriers are forced to keep older jets in service or pay more for the dwindling number of available spare parts. "It's been something that has frustrated everybody, particularly airlines who are waiting to take delivery of aircraft or have aircraft sitting on the ground that they'd love to see in service," Walsh told in an interview. In a statement on the new outlook, Walsh called predictions of delays throughout this decade "off-the-chart unacceptable". Total expenses for the industry are forecast to reach $913 billion in 2025, up 1.0% from 2024 but below earlier projections of $940 billion, as lower fuel prices help offset rising aircraft maintenance costs. IATA predicted that cargo revenues would drop 4.7% to $142 billion in 2025, mainly due to reduced global economic growth and trade-dampening protectionist measures, including tariffs. Amid a tug of war over who should absorb the tariffs, Walsh recognised that some manufacturers would be tempted to pass them on to their customers, but warned this would also push up fares. "Ultimately, when I look at this, I see consumers are going to have to end up paying for any higher costs that the industry faces," he told . (Reporting by Shivansh Tiwary and Tim Hepher in New Delhi; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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Sohn Hong Kong's top hedge fund picks include Indian pharma and China robotaxis
At the Sohn Investment Conference in Hong Kong, hedge funds shared their best investment ideas. These ranged from Chinese self driving taxis to an Indian drug retailer and a Korean nuclear power plant builder. The geographical diversity of this year's selections is greater than last year. This suggests that investors are actively trying to diversify their exposure in order to combat tariff uncertainty and market volatility. Flight Deck Capital, based in San Francisco, sees potential upside for Baidu's auto-driving division. Jay Kahn, Flight Deck's managing partner and founder of Flight Deck, said that Apollo Go is similar to Google's self driving unit Waymo. "It's the only robo taxi player in China who's not reliant on capital markets for scale," he added. He predicts that China's ride-sharing and taxi industry will grow to $237 billion in 2034. Apollo is expected to take a 15% share of the market. He said that the market currently values this segment and Baidu's cloud services at zero. Investor optimism about Chinese companies going overseas is not affected by the escalating U.S./China trade war. Apeiron Capital, Hong Kong's investment bank, has endorsed Chinese ride-hailing service DiDi Global. It cited its improved margin at home as well as its rapid market share growth in Latin America. Triata Capital, meanwhile, is optimistic about Chinese discount ecommerce player PDD (owner of Temu). The monthly active users of Temu are bigger than Amazon's, according to Triata CIO Sean Ho. Two investors are interested in India's healthcare sector. Arisaig Partners, a Singapore-based investment firm, favors MedPlus Health Services, a leading Indian pharmacy chain, because its private label products enhance its low price proposition and widen the gap between it and its competitors. "Inflation has dropped, the government is focusing more on the middle-class and consumer spending has risen from a low base. In an interview conducted before the conference, Vatsal mody, partner at Arisaig Partners and head of India Research said that he believes this is a time when consumer spending will improve. Panvira Management, an India-based hedge funds startup, is bullish about Piramal Pharma. It expects its growth to reach the high teens as well as benefiting from normalised tax rates. SECURITY AND A ACTIVISTS Other hedge funds are focusing on the opportunities created by geopolitical conflict in the security industry. Jon Jhun who manages MY.Alpha Management’s new Korea-focused funds chose Hyundai Engineering & Construction, which is engaged in nuclear plant design, procurement, and construction. He said that "Korea dominates ex-Russian and ex-China's nuclear supply chain." Frontline Global Management, a Hong Kong-based company, chose the Spanish defense firm Indra Sistemas in the belief that it will win more European contract. Palliser Capital, a UK hedge fund, disclosed at the event that it owned a 3% stake of Japan's Toyo Tire. The hedge fund urged the tire manufacturer to increase shareholder returns by setting an "best-in class" performance target, and to release its excess capital, which amounts to about $900,000,000, to shareholders. Seth Fischer’s Oasis management is long Japanese entertainment chain Round One. It believes it will receive a higher rating as it enters the restaurant business, aiming to bring Michelin quality Japanese food to the U.S.
US and China agree to reduce tariffs temporarily, assuaging slump fears
On Monday, the U.S. announced that it and China had agreed to temporarily reduce their high tariffs against each other. This sent global stocks and the U.S. Dollar surging. The world's two largest economies were putting a halt to a trade conflict which had fueled fears of global recession.
Both sides agreed that the U.S. would reduce the extra tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30 % for the next 90-day period, and Chinese duties on U.S. imported goods will drop to 10%, from 125%.
The financial markets welcomed the end of a conflict which had brought two-way trade worth nearly $600 billion to a halt, disrupting supply chain and causing layoffs. Investors were also concerned about stagflation - a combination of high inflation with weak economic growth.
Wall Street stocks rose and the dollar grew, while gold prices in safe havens fell. This news helped ease investor concerns about Trump's potential trade war causing global economic collapse.
Trump, in an effort to reduce the U.S. deficit on trade, imposed a variety of tariffs around the world, with China being his most aggressive. The financial markets plummeted, which led him to suspend most "reciprocal tariffs" on dozens countries last month.
Trump's erratic behavior has weakened his approval rating among U.S. citizens who are worried that tariffs could increase the price of everything from cars to toys.
The remaining U.S. duty on Chinese imports is still piled up on top of previous U.S. duties. Before Trump's January inauguration, China had to pay 25% U.S. duties on many Chinese industrial products he had imposed during his first term. Lower rates were applied on consumer goods.
The announcement on Monday leaves unchanged these duties, as well as the tariffs of 100 percent on electric vehicles and 50 percent on solar products that were imposed by former Democratic president Joe Biden.
According to a source with knowledge of the negotiations, the accord does not include "de minimis exemptions" for low-value ecommerce shipments coming from China and Hong Kong. The Trump administration ended these exemptions on May 2.
The deal was more than analysts expected after weeks of aggressive rhetoric about trade. Trump floated last week the idea of lowering the tariffs to an 80% rate, which is still a high figure.
This is better than what I expected. Zhiwei Zhang is the chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, Hong Kong. She said: "I thought tariffs would have been cut by around 50%."
Trump's allies hailed Monday's agreement as a political victory for Trump, who ran in 2024 in support of unfair trade practices to resurrect U.S. production capacity that had been exported overseas. Blue collar workers from "Rust Belt states" like Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have been losing manufacturing jobs for decades, gave him a lot of support.
"The President is doing what he promised." It's about fixing the disparities between trading relationships, said Kelly Ann Shaw. She was a senior U.S. government official in Trump's term from 2017-2021 and is now an attorney at Akin Gump Strauss Haauer & Field.
She warned that 90 days is not enough time to address the major concerns of the United States regarding non-tariff obstacles such as subsidies on capital and labor.
They've got a lot of work to do.
"THE EQUIVALENT TO AN EMBARGO"
After talks in Geneva with Chinese officials, U.S. Treasury secretary Scott Bessent stated that "neither side" wants to decouple. "And with these high tariffs, it was like an embargo and neither side wanted that."
The first time senior U.S. officials and Chinese economists have met face-to-face since Trump's return to power, the meetings marked a significant milestone.
He Lifeng, China's Vice Premier, told reporters on Sunday at China's World Trade Organization mission that the talks had been "frank, thorough and constructive".
"The meeting was a success and achieved important consensus", He said.
China retaliated after Trump raised tariffs on Chinese products to 145% by placing export restrictions on certain rare earth elements. These are vital for U.S. producers of electronic consumer goods and weapons. Beijing increased tariffs on U.S. products to 125%.
Andrew Gossage is the CEO of Ultimate Products. The company owns brands for homewares and appliances that are manufactured in China and sold primarily to Europe and the UK. He said Chinese manufacturers would still give priority to European customers, even if U.S. Tariffs dropped to levels before Trump.
He said that the U.S. had entered unreliable territory in terms of its attitude towards the Chinese market. "So, they see European and UK markets as being more rational, reliable, and less volatile."
After the agreement, shares of European companies that were hit by the trade conflict rallied. Maersk, the shipping company, was Europe's biggest gainer with a rise of more than 12%. Last week, it warned that the U.S.-China dispute had caused container volumes to plummet.
Maersk stated in a press release that "we hope this can lay the groundwork for parties to reach a permanent agreement which can create the long term predictability our clients need."
Luxury firms' shares rose with LVMH up 7.4%, and Gucci-owner Kering rising 6.7%.
Bessent said to U.S. Media that there was still much work to be done and no date or time had been fixed for the next meeting.
He told MSNBC that "we have a mechanism in place to meet the Chinese trade delegation over the next 90-day period." We will discuss tariffs, nontariff trade barriers and currencies, as well as their subsidies for labor and capital.
He said Chinese officials understood the importance to address the fentanyl crises and appeared for the first to be working on halting the flow of precursor drug into the U.S.
Trump imposed the tariffs after declaring an emergency national over the fentanyl that was entering the U.S.
(source: Reuters)