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Ninety one, an investment manager, increases its aluminium bets in response to the Strait of Hormuz crisis

Ninety one increased its aluminium exposure in its Global Natural Resources Fund after Middle East?conflict caused the Strait of Hormuz to be closed, threatening the global supply of the metal. Around seven million metric tonnes of aluminium is smelted in the Middle East, which represents 9% of global production.

George Cheveley who manages this fund with Paul Gooden and Dawid Heyl said, "We could lose an important amount of supply in a market which is already quite tight." "We were over-weight aluminum a week ago, and now we are even more so," said George Cheveley. Cheveley said in an interview that we've added aluminum manufacturers who are not affected, mainly Hongqiao.

Rio Tinto, a diversified miner that produced 3.4 millions tons of aluminium last year for the packaging, transport and construction industries is also included in the fund's exposure to the metal.

The feedstock for aluminium smelting includes power, carbon, and alumina made from bauxite. Aluminium Bahrain, or Alba, one of the largest smelters in the world, announced force majeure last week, warning customers about delays to shipments. Meanwhile, Qatari smelter Qatalum began to shut down.

The problem for EGA, Qatalum, and Alba is that they import alumina. Cheveley said that EGA imports bauxite as well as alumina. "If they don't think that the Straits will open next week, more production will be taken offline."

Aluminum production is extremely vulnerable to disruptions in energy supply because smelters can't be quickly shut down and restarted. If you cut?power abruptly, it could damage the pots which hold?the metal. Smelters must reduce production gradually to avoid permanent damage. After pots have cooled down, restarting is a slow and laborious process. This keeps metal off the market for a long time after 'the initial shock.

If the conflict continues, global aluminum demand could fall anyway. Cheveley stated that if it drops 5% then the problem will be solved.

(source: Reuters)