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Maguire: Vietnam's industrial boom is driving global coal imports at new heights.
Vietnam is now a major driver for global growth of thermal coal imports, and its use. In 2024, the country increased imports by more than 30% to reach record levels. According to Kpler, a ship tracking firm, Vietnam's thermal coal imports will rise 31% by 2024 to 44 million tons. This is compared to a mere 1% increase in global thermal coal exports in the past year, to 1,01 billion tons. The surge in coal imports, the largest power source in Vietnam, is largely due to the booming export-oriented manufacturing sector. Vietnam's coal purchase growth in 2024 will be higher than the 11% increase in China's imports, which is the world's biggest coal consumer. This means that Southeast Asia saw the highest rise in coal imports last year. Vietnam's coal demand is expected to continue growing as the country's capacity for coal burning will increase by another 15% when projects currently under construction are complete. The increased coal capacity is likely to ensure that coal-fired electricity emissions continue to rise in the coming years even though coal burning continues its steady decline outside of Asia. COAL DEPENDENCE According to Ember, coal-fired power plants generated half of Vietnam’s electricity between January and October 2024. This is the largest coal share in Vietnam since 2020. The total coal-fired production increased by 17% between January and October 2023. This helped to drive the annual increase in electricity by 10%. According to Global Energy Monitor, coal accounts for 39% of the current installed capacity, which is around 70,000 GW. This equates to 27,239 gigawatts. The next highest generation share is 21% (14.750 GW), followed by solar farms with a share of around 19% (13.100 GW). Wind farms account for 9% of the total (8,150 GW) and natural gas and fuel oil plants make up 12%. Around 11,600 GW is under construction, with coal-fired and gas-fired power plants both expected to increase by around 4,000GW. GEM data show that there are also 3,500 GW worth of new solar, hydro and wind capacity being built. Vietnam's fossil-fuel-fired energy footprint will grow from 51% to 53.3% when the current construction capacity is completed. RÉGIONAL NORMS Although Vietnam's growing fossil fuel production contrasts with the planned capacity changes in Europe, the United States and other parts of the world, Southeast Asia still relies heavily on fossil fuels. In Southeast Asia, fossil fuels account for 71% of the current capacity of power generation, and 60% of that capacity is under construction. The strong growth rates in several countries across the region and the large, rapidly expanding workforces of most Southeast Asian nations are key factors behind this dependence on fossil fuels. According to the International Monetary Fund, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam have populations exceeding 100 million and are expected to grow at a rate nearly twice that of the global average growth rate of 3.2% by 2025. Leading Role Vietnam's economy grew by 5.6% per year on average since 2018. This is the fastest rate of growth among Southeast Asian countries during this period. The key to Vietnam's growth has been the rerouting manufacturing supply chains away from China and towards other low-cost production centers since U.S. president Donald Trump launched a trade conflict with China during his term. Vietnam's strong connections to global trade routes and its experience in a variety of manufacturing processes, which is rapidly developing, made it the ideal destination for companies that wanted to reduce their production bases in China quickly but still maintain a presence throughout Asia. The rapid expansion of Vietnam's manufacturing industry led to a dramatic increase in energy consumption. Local power companies were forced to use whatever means they could in order boost their power supply. According to Ember, the total demand for electricity in Vietnam has risen by 27% between 2018 and 2023. This growth rate is higher than the 23% increase in Indonesia, the 12% rise globally and the 12% in the Philippines over the same time period. It has put pressure on Vietnam's suppliers of energy. In recent years, the relentless increase in power consumption has led to frequent power outages. This is especially true during heatwaves where cooling systems are in high demand. In order to avoid further power problems, Vietnam's energy providers have prioritized stability and cost-efficiency as they expanded their generation. This has led to a continued dependence on coal, the country's main power source. Between 2030 and 2050, the energy companies of the country plan to increase their generation capacity using renewable and other clean sources. In the short term, however, coal will remain the preferred power fuel in Vietnam. Its use is expected to continue growing along with the overall economy of the country for the foreseeable. These are the opinions of the author who is a market analyst at.
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Asian buyers are looking to increase US LNG imports in order to avoid Trump tariffs
Six Asian countries have expressed an interest in purchasing liquefied gas to reduce their trade deficits with the United States, and to avoid tariffs. Others are looking to diversify and expand supplies. After the Trump administration lifted the moratorium in January on new LNG export permits, companies in the U.S. are moving forward with plans to expand or create new export capacity. Trump's decision may pave the path for an additional 100 million metric tonnes per year (tpy), of LNG, by 2031. Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report that "Asia remains vulnerable to tariff increases given the fact that seven of ten economies in the area are running large surpluses in trade with the U.S." What government officials have said about the situation so far Japan is the No. The No. 2 LNG buyer in the world, Japan, will begin to import a record number of new shipments American LNG soon, U.S. president Donald Trump announced on February 7. Trump stated at a White House Press Conference that the two countries are also working together on a joint project to develop oil and gas in Alaska. A Japanese official stated that importing U.S. LNG would help to reduce the bilateral trade deficit of $56 billion and ward off tariff threats. Data from analytics firm Kpler revealed that nearly 10% of Japan's imports of LNG come from the U.S. SOUTH KOREAN Ahn Duk Geun, South Korea's Industry Minister, said that the country may import more U.S. gas and oil, including LNG, in order to stabilize energy supplies, given the tensions in the Middle East. In 2024, South Korea will have a record $55.7 Billion trade surplus with the United States. This is up 25,4% from one year ago. South Korea, which is the No.3 LNG buyer in the world, imported 47.2 million tons of super-chilled fuel by 2024. Of this amount, 5.71 million tons were from the U.S. Kpler data shows that South Korea, the world's No. Oil Secretary Pankaj Jain announced on Monday that Indian energy companies including GAIL India Ltd., Indian Oil Corp. and Bharat Petroleum Corp. are interested in buying U.S. LNG. GAIL Chairman Sandeep Kumar Gupta announced that the company would revive plans to purchase a stake in an American LNG plant, or to buy U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) under long-term agreements and will issue a bid. India, the No.4 LNG buyer in the world, imported 26.59 million tons of LNG in 2024. Of that amount, 5 million tons were from the U.S. Kpler data revealed that India, the world's No. In fiscal 2023-2024 the bilateral trade between India and the United States exceeded $118 billion, with a surplus of $22 billion. TAIWAN The Economy Ministry announced on Monday that the state energy company CPC is interested to buy natural gas from Alaska. Taiwan's Central News Agency (CNA) reported on Sunday that CPC was in talks with a company from Alaska "in hopes of reducing trade surpluses with the U.S." Taiwan's surplus of trade with the U.S. grew 83% in 2013, driven by high-tech items such as semiconductors. Taiwan, the world's fifth-largest LNG importer, imported 21.78 millions tons of LNG last year. Most of it came from Australia and Qatar. BANGLADESH The company announced on Friday that the Bangladesh government had signed a nonbinding agreement to buy up to 5,000,000 tpy LNG from Louisiana's Argent. Data from the Office of the United States' Trade Representative revealed that the U.S. suffered a $6 billion trade deficit with Bangladesh in 2023. Kpler data revealed that Bangladesh imported 720,000 tonnes of LNG from America last year. This is out of 5.69 million total tons. VIETNAM In 2024, the Southeast Asian nation's surplus in trade with the U.S. grew annually by almost 20% to a new record of more than $123 billion. A senior Hanoi-based diplomatic official said that the trade surplus could be decreased to ease tensions when purchasing U.S. large-ticket items. He specifically mentioned LNG. Kpler data shows that Vietnam imported 330,000 tons of LNG in 2024. The country began importing LNG as early as 2023. (Compiled by Michele Pek, Edited by Florence Tan and Lincoln Feast)
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Algeria offers to purchase soft milling wheat of nominal 50,000 T
European traders reported on Monday that Algeria's state grain agency OAIC had issued an international tender for the purchase of soft milling wheat from origins other than Algeria. Algeria usually buys more than the indicated volume in its tenders. The deadline to submit price offers for the tender is on Wednesday, February 12. Offers must remain valid until Friday, February 13. Wheat is shipped in two phases from the main supply areas, including Europe: April 16-30 and April 1-15. The shipment date is one month sooner if the wheat comes from South America or Australia. Algeria is an important customer of wheat imported from the European Union and France in particular, but Russian exporters as well as those from other Black Sea regions have seen a strong expansion on the Algerian market. Algeria bought an estimated 1,17 million tons of soft wheat in its last tender reported on December 26. Reporting by Michael Hogan, Gus Trompiz and Tomaszjanowski.
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The LME's available Russian-origin aluminum stocks rose in January
LME data on Monday showed that the number of Russian-made aluminium in London Metal Exchange storage warehouses was up in January compared to December. The amount of Indian metal, however, fell. According to traders, the majority of the aluminium in LME registered warehouses at Port Klang in Malaysia is of Indian origin. This is what Western consumers are looking for, as many have refused to purchase metal made in Russia after it invaded Ukraine almost three years ago. Stocks of aluminium with Russian origin, or those on warrant At the end January, the total reached 164 475 metric tonnes, or 67%, as compared to 163,450 metric tons, or 56%, at the end December. The remaining Russian aluminum warrants - title documents which confer ownership - have been cancelled. This means that they are destined to leave the LME System. Metal produced in Russia from April 13 to 2024 is banned by the LME. However, metals made before this date are still allowed to be traded. Several companies that held Russian aluminum before April 13 have deposited their stock in LME warehouses. The number of cancelled warrants and metals marked for delivery in ISTIM UK’s LME approved warehouses at Port Klang was 234,900 tonnes. LME data indicated that the waiting list to receive this metal at end-January was 166 day. LME data revealed that at ISTIM's Gwangyang warehouses, there were 97,750 tonnes of cancelled warrants and 81 days in the queue for load-out at the end of January. In December, there was no queue at this location. At the end of January, Indian-origin aluminum accounted for 31% of all on-warrant stock in the LME System, compared to 120,225 tonnes and 41% respectively at end December. About half of the LME's available stocks were copper and nickel. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Liffey; Polina Devtt)
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The LME's available Russian-origin aluminum stocks rose in January
LME data on Monday showed that the number of Russian-made aluminium in London Metal Exchange storage warehouses was up in January compared to December. The amount of Indian metal, however, fell. According to traders, the majority of the aluminium in LME registered warehouses at Port Klang in Malaysia is of Indian origin. This is what Western consumers are looking for, as many have refused to purchase metal made in Russia after it invaded Ukraine almost three years ago. Stocks of aluminium with Russian origin, or those on warrant At the end January, the total reached 164 475 metric tonnes, or 67%, as compared to 163,450 tons, or 56%, at the end December. The remaining Russian aluminum warrants - title documents which confer ownership - have been cancelled. This means that they are destined to leave the LME System. The LME has not banned Russian metal produced before April of last year. Many companies that held Russian aluminium had deposited their stock in LME storage facilities, with a large portion of them in Gwangyang, South Korea. The number of cancelled warrants and metals marked for delivery in ISTIM UK’s LME approved warehouses at Port Klang was 234,900 tonnes. LME data indicated that the waiting list to receive this metal at end-January was 166 day. LME data revealed that at ISTIM's Gwangyang warehouses, there were 97,750 tonnes of cancelled warrants and 81 days in the queue for load-out at the end of January. In December, there was no queue at this location. At the end of January, Indian-origin aluminum accounted for 31% of all on-warrant stock in the LME System, down from 120 225 tons and 40% at the end December. About half of the LME's available stocks were copper and nickel. (Reporting and editing by Kevin Liffey; Polina Devtt)
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India's GAIL revives plans to buy US LNG after Trump lifts export ban
GAIL India Ltd. will look to purchase a stake or long-term supply of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas after the Trump Administration lifted its ban on export permits. Gupta said ahead of India Energy Week that "their (Washington) decision to lift their ban will improve LNG supplies and we will revive plans to buy a stake in U.S. LNG or to buy U.S. LNG through long-term contracts." He said that the company will make a final decision following a long-term LNG purchase tendering process. India is currently the fourth largest LNG importer in the world. It aims to increase the gas share to 15% of the energy mix by 2030, up from the current 6.2%. GAIL is India’s largest gas distributor. GAIL was forced to stop its process for buying a stake up to 26 percent in an LNG plant located in the United States in 2023 after Joe Biden, then president of the United States, halted approvals on pending and future requests to export LNG. Gupta stated that global LNG prices may soften after 2026, as new projects in the U.S. are expected to be brought online and increase supply. Asia Spot LNG Prices Last week, the price of British thermal units (BTUs) reached a new high for two months at around $15. This was in response to a rise in European gas prices. Analysts say that the U.S. will provide ample supply to limit prices in this decade. Qatar will expand its liquefaction capability to 142 millions metric tons annually by 2027, from the current 77 million. Hardeep Singh Puri, the Indian oil minister, said that by 2030 India's gas consumption is expected to reach over 500 million standard cubic meters per day (mmscmd). According to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell of the Oil Ministry, India's gas demand increased by approximately 12.5% in fiscal year 2024 compared to the previous year. Gupta stated that India's consumption would increase if the government brought gas under the goods and service tax regime instead of the current multiple taxes on gasoline, in order to make the prices cheaper and uniform throughout the country. GAIL, in its annual report 2023-24, has agreed to purchase 15.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG, including supplies from the U.S.A., Qatar and Australia, as well as traders Vitol Adnoc. The long-term agreements with American companies include the purchase by Berkshire Hathaway Energy of Cove Point and Cheniere Energy Sabine Pass in Louisiana, each receiving 5.8 million tonnes per year (tpy) of LNG. Sources said that in December, Qatar was also awarded a 5-year tender for the purchase one LNG cargo per month starting April. Sources in December said that Qatar was also awarded a five-year tender for the purchase of one LNG cargo a month starting April.
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British Business - February 10
These are the most popular stories in the British business pages. These stories have not been verified and we cannot vouch for the accuracy of these reports. The Times British Airways, Virgin Atlantic and other airlines are asking the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) to examine Heathrow costs before building a new runway. They fear that passenger fees will increase. AstraZeneca continues to pay Russian doctors and healthcare organisations despite the Ukraine War, citing a need to provide medicine globally and stating medicines are not under sanctions. The Guardian Great British Energy, the state-owned energy company in Britain, faces a difficult search for a new CEO. It will begin recruiting this month. Six months after it was established with 8.3 billion pound ($10.28 billion), there are no obvious front-runners. Stuart Machin is the CEO of Marks & Spencer. He has urged the UK government not to implement the planned taxes and recycling fees, claiming that the retail industry was unfairly burdened. The Telegraph Activist Elliott, a financier who is known for his activism, has acquired a stake in BP. He hopes to influence strategic changes at BP as it struggles with its "net-zero" approach. Virgin Atlantic tripled the number of applications for its status-matching offer, after British Airways announced tighter conditions for its frequent flyer program. The new system will be based on spending from April. Sky News UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves summoned executives of Barclays, HSBC and Lloyds to a meeting on Wednesday, where they will discuss Labour's growth strategy for financial services.
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Baltic States switch to European grid and end Russia's ties
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania announced on Sunday that they successfully synchronised the electricity systems of their countries to the European continental grid. This comes one day after Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania severed decades-old energy links with Russia and Belarus. The complex switch from the grid that was used by their former Soviet Imperial overlord has been planned for many years. It is intended to bring the three Baltic countries closer to the European Union, and boost energy security in the region. In a social media post, Latvian President Edgars Rinkovics stated: "We did it!" The Baltic countries cut high-voltage cross-border transmission lines in eastern Latvia on Saturday, just 100 metres from Russia's border. They gave away pieces of wire as souvenirs to passers-by. Kaja Kallas - the Estonian EU Foreign Policy chief - called this switch, made earlier this week, "a victory of freedom and European unity". After power cable, telecommunication links, and gas pipelines between the Baltics and Sweden and Finland went down, the Baltic Sea region has been on high alert. The Baltic Sea region is on high alert after power cable, telecom links and gas pipeline outages between the Baltics and Sweden or Finland. Russia has denied involvement. After an undersea cable from Finland to Estonia, which was damaged in December 2012, Poland and the Baltics deployed elite police units, helicopters, and navy assets. Lithuanian military started drills to secure the land connection to Poland. Analysts believe that more damage to the links could drive power prices to levels seen in the Baltics since the invasion of Ukraine when energy prices spiked. The IPS/UPS Grid was the last remaining link between Russia and the three countries. These nations reemerged in the early 90s as independent nations after the fall of the Soviet Union. They joined the European Union in 2004 and NATO in 2007. After the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022, three of Kyiv's staunchest supporters stopped purchasing power from Russia but still rely on its grid to stabilise and control frequencies to prevent outages.
Bosnian students protest government inaction after deadly floods
On Monday, hundreds of students in Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia protested against the authorities for failing to accept responsibility for the death of 27 people during the devastating floods that occurred in early October.
On October 4, heavy rains caused landslides and flooding in parts of central and south Bosnia and Herzegovina, destroying roads and homes.
Only in Donja Jablanica, a village located in southern Serbia, 19 people died after an illegal quarry collapsed and trapped people under heavy stones. Investigations have not yet been launched.
The Balkan country's fragmented governments struggled to respond.
The authorities have taken a long time to begin reconstruction or distribute the aid that has been donated by the European Union, and other foreign governments.
Where are the donations?" Where is the rehabilitation? Where is the transparency? "Where is the responsibility?" A large banner was carried by protesters in front of state parliament.
Imran Pasalic is the president of Sarajevo University Students Parliament. "The students came to demand accountability from all those directly or indirectly responsible for the deaths of 19 people following the slide of an illegal quarry over Donja Jablanica," Imran Pasalic said.
Bosnia is still trying to overcome its ethnic divisions after the devastating war of the 1990s that killed about 100,000 people.
Some students protested in solidarity with the students of Serbia who held anti-government demonstrations in November over a train station disaster which killed 15 people and quickly escalated into a crisis.
(source: Reuters)