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The threat of Iranian and Houthi shipping to the Red Sea is more important for oil today

Iran warned that if U.S. strikes continue, its campaign to choke global energy markets may expand from the Strait-of-Hormuz?to the crucial Red Sea route. This threat is dependent on the Houthi allies of Iran in Yemen.

Here's why it matters, and what that means for the Iran War and the global energy crises:

How big is the risk to global energy markets? The Bab el-Mandeb strait, the gateway to the Red Sea, would be closed and open a whole new front in the conflict between Iran and the U.S.

The Red Sea is now an important alternative outlet for Gulf Oil and other products. If Bab el-Mandeb is seriously disrupted, both the major oil export routes in the region could be closed simultaneously.

The partial blockade by Iran of Hormuz, after Israel and the U.S. launched an attack on it on 28 February, disrupted the majority of oil and other Gulf exports. Prices rose and there was a global shock in the energy market.

Saudi Arabia responded to this by diverting over 70% of its daily crude oil exports from the Red Sea port Yanbu. According to Kpler and Signal Ocean data, Yanbu has shipped an average of 4 million barrels a day over the past few weeks. This is up from 973,000 bpd during the same time period last year.

According to Kpler, the total volume of petroleum transiting 'Bab el-Mandeb' in June was 7.4 million bpd, which is about 7% more than last year.

Last week, it was reported that Saudi Arabia may expand its crude oil pipeline along the Red Sea coast. A sustained disruption of Red Sea shipping by the Houthis, including possible attacks on vessels and ports, could pose a serious problem. The cargo was not stopped when the Houthis attacked Red Sea shipping during November 2023. The cargo is being loaded here this time.

Who are the Houthis and can Iran make them close RED SEA ENERGY Routes? In the 1990s the Houthis were a military, religious, and political movement that fought guerrilla warfare against the government of Sanaa in northern?Yemen.

Since more than a century, they have waged a civil conflict against the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government and attacked Gulf neighbors with drones and missiles.

Yemen's internationally recognized government claimed it had attacked Sanaa Airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing.

The Houthis claimed Saudi Arabia was to blame and launched missiles on the Abha airport, located in the mountains of southwest Saudi Arabia.

In an interview with Press TV, a senior Houthi, politburo-member Mohammad al-Farah warned that if things continued to escalate, Bab el-Mandeb could be closed.

Iran supports the Houthis in its regional "Axis of Resistance", including Hezbollah of Lebanon and Iraqi Shiite militias. However, its ties to the Yemeni movement is less clear than those with these other groups. Houthis don't recognise Iran's supreme ruler as their ultimate authority religiously in the same manner that Hezbollah or Iraqi groups do. They are motivated primarily by domestic issues, even though they share Iran's ideology.

The U.S. claims that Iran has armed and trained the Houthis, with Hezbollah's help. The Houthis claim to be independent and deny that they are Iranian proxy forces. It's not clear to what extent the group will go on behalf of Iran.

What happened when the HOUTHIS attacked RED SEA SHIPS before?

The 'Houthis' began shooting at Israel after the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023 and Israels devastating Gaza campaign. They claimed to be doing this in support for Palestinians. Maersk Hapag-Lloyd, and other major shipping companies were forced to divert their ships around Africa, which was a much longer, more expensive route. The U.S. led mission to restore freedom of navigation in the Red Sea included repeated strikes against Houthi targets, and a defensive offensive that destroyed hundreds of drones.

The Gaza ceasefire only ended in October, after the Gaza ceasefire. They'said last month that they would ban ships connected to Israel from the Red Sea, after Israel renewed its military attacks against Iran. Maersk announced last week that the threat never came to pass. Instead, shipping groups Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and others are now resuming Red Sea routes they abandoned last year during Houthi attacks.

WHAT HAS THEY DONE IN THE LATEST WAR WITH IRAN?

Hezbollah, Iraqi groups and U.S.-Israeli forces have all joined the war with drones and rockets. The Houthis however have been relatively quiet.

Abdul Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the group, said on March 5, "Our fingers are ready to fire at any time if circumstances warrant it".

Iranian commanders warned repeatedly that the Houthis might join the war. Esmaeil Quds Force Commander Esmaeil Quaani of the Revolutionary Guards Quds Force said that on June 1, they could choke-off the Red Sea.

The Houthis, however, have been largely quiet. They only launched a few drone and missile attacks against Israel in late March or early April.

This could have been because the group did not want to get involved in the conflict and break its long-standing ceasefire with Saudi Arabia. (Compiled by Angus McDowall, edited by Jason Neely and William Maclean.)

(source: Reuters)