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Maguire: The EV export boom in China is beginning to affect the gasoline market.
Years ago, predictions of the energy shift followed a familiar plot: Electric vehicles would gradually reduce gasoline demand in Europe before spreading elsewhere. Recent trade data suggests that the process is already accelerating in a much wider swath across the global economy. Comparing the year-to date gasoline imports with Chinese EV exports shows a striking overlap across several major economies. Australia, Brazil and South Korea have all increased their imports of Chinese EVs in the past year, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Canada, United States, Nigeria, and Japan reduced their gasoline imports. No single ?dataset proves causation. Imports of gasoline are affected by refinery operations and inventories as well as economic growth, government policy, and government policies. When a'same' pattern appears in multiple regions, and at different income levels, this is less a coincidence and more an early sign of structural change. WHAT ARE THE FIRST SIGNS OF DISplacement? It is possible that the global trade in gasoline is starting to reflect China's surge in EV exports. Years ago, EV adoption was treated as a separate story. They seem to be more and more connected. In 2026, the countries listed here collectively reduced gasoline imports by about a third compared to last year's same-month figures. They also increased imports of Chinese electric vehicles to record levels. Fuel traders will need to watch Chinese vehicle exports just as closely as refinery failures if this relationship continues. AUSTRALIA LEADS IN THE WAY Australia is perhaps the most obvious example. Imports of Chinese EVs grew by 200%, or $2.5 billion. Chinese brands have gained rapid market share because they offer vehicles at prices that Western competitors cannot match. The economics of electrification is increasingly favorable for consumers who face high living costs and unpredictable fuel prices. ASIA PRESSURE BUILDINGS South Korea and Japan are both automotive powerhouses. South Korea reduced its gasoline imports to around 0.4 million tonnes or 44%, while increasing Chinese EV imports to more than $1 billion. Japan has cut its gasoline imports to 0.3 million metric tons or 11% while registering a 90% increase in the purchase of Chinese electric vehicles. Chinese automakers may have a stronger global competitive position than they realize if they can establish themselves in two of the most advanced automotive markets. EVEN OIL PRODUCERS ARE JOINING THE PARTICIPATION The United Arab Emirates is perhaps the most important case symbolically. China's electric vehicle imports reached new heights, with a total of $1.4 billion, as it posted multi-year lows in gasoline imports. The conflict in the Middle East has hampered oil and product flow around the region this year, including to the UAE. The steep rise in EV sales is still important because traditionally, oil-producing countries have been viewed by many as laggards when it comes to vehicle electrification. EVs are becoming more popular due to falling prices and improved technology. If EVs are able to gain ground in an economic system based on hydrocarbons, then they can do so almost anywhere. NORTH AMERICA'S QUIET SHIFT Canada and the United States are also part of the same pattern. Canada has increased its purchases of electric vehicles from China while reducing gasoline imports. The United States cut its gasoline imports in half compared to 2025's first half and imported more than $1 billion worth of electric vehicles from China despite trade barriers. In both markets, refining dynamics play a significant role. Every electric vehicle sold replaces an upcoming gasoline vehicle, reducing fuel consumption growth that refiners used to take for granted. THE EMERGING MARKET TEST Pakistan is the largest market in the world. The conventional wisdom held that electric vehicle adoption would be concentrated in wealthy countries because they were too expensive for developing economies. Chinese manufacturers challenge this assumption. Pakistan has decreased total gasoline imports this year, while Chinese EV imports have increased by an astounding 549% on a scale of nearly $500 million. Nigeria followed a similar trend, as the Dangote refinery's increased gasoline production helped to reduce gasoline imports more than half compared to a year earlier, while EV imports more than doubled, reaching close to $72million. Nigeria has also partnered with South Korea’s development arm in order to build a EV manufacturing facility that will manufacture both cars and charging equipment?in Nigeria. If low-cost EVs gain traction in emerging markets that are fuel-sensitive, future expectations of gasoline demand growth could need to be revised. Why this Matters These countries are not only important because of their numbers, but also for their diversity. Together, they cover North America, East Asia and South Asia. They also include the Middle East, Africa, Oceania, Africa, and Oceania. They include oil exporters, oil importers, wealthy economies, middle-income countries and emerging markets. Histoically, EV adoption was dismissed as a largely European phenomena supported by subsidies and regulations. This argument is getting harder to "sustain". Consumers seem to be responding more to a simple economic calculus: gasoline is still expensive and volatile while Chinese EVs become cheaper and more readily available. The Takeaway The demand for gasoline is not going to fall. Internal combustion engines will continue to dominate the global road for many years. Major shifts are rarely the result of dramatic headlines. They begin with subtle shifts in behavior, which are first evident in trade data and market flows. One of the early signs may be the overlap between declining gasoline imports and increasing Chinese EV sales across many different economies. Fuel efficiency and slower economic growth may not be the greatest threat to long-term gasoline demand. There may be an increasing number of Chinese electric vehicles that are affordable. These are the opinions of the columnist, who is also an author. This column is great! Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a week. (Reporting and editing by Jamie Freed; reporting by Gavin Maguire)
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New York Times Business News - August 4, 2018
These are the most popular?stories from the New York Times business pages. These stories have not been?verified?and we cannot vouch for the accuracy of these stories. Boeing has been cleared by US regulators to begin delivering its Boeing 737 Max 7 jet, the smallest version in the best-selling 737 'Max family, after it made changes to the flight-control software, the pilot alert system and an engine system which prevents ice from accumulating. After being confirmed by Senate last week, Jay Clayton was sworn-in as U.S. Director of National Intelligence. Kay Granger died at her Fort Worth home due to Alzheimer's. She was a Republican from Texas and a member of the House of Representatives. She went on to become chair of?the powerful House Appropriations Committee. (Compiled by Bengaluru newsroom) (Compiled Bengaluru Newsroom)
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Lufthansa announces 2026 profit forecast following Q2 fuel cost impact on EBIT
German airline 'Lufthansa' on Tuesday announced a range of 'its adjusted operating profit (EBIT) for 2026, after the figure was more than halved due to increased fuel costs in the second quarter. The company now expects an EBIT adjusted of EUR1.7 to EUR2.2 billion (1.96-$2.53 Billion) due to a 'heightened level of uncertainty caused by high volatility in kerosene prices. Carsten Spohr, Chief Executive Officer of the company, said in a statement: "We reflect today on a challenging second quarter which was marked once again by multiple geopolitical crisis and uncertainty." "Despite the significant increase in fuel prices, we could not offset it fully despite our improvement in load factor and yield." Lufthansa predicted that the amount would be significantly higher than the previous year's level of EUR 1,96 billion. The adjusted EBIT dropped to EUR383 millions in the second quarter from EUR870millions a year ago. This was "slightly lower" than the EUR401 million analysts had projected in a company-compiled survey. Fuel costs are now expected to be EUR8.66 Billion. The company reported that capacity planning for the year remained unchanged.
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BHP faces a weekend strike as wage negotiations drag on.
A union spokesperson revealed on Tuesday that the BHP 'Port Hedland' operations in Western Australia had 'not reached a wage agreement' with BHP. This set the stage for the two-day strike to be held at the world's largest iron ore export hub this weekend. In a'statement, a spokesperson from Combined Ports Unions stated that the'meeting was productive and, while substantive issues remain to be resolved, all parties have agreed on a 'path forward, which we will follow in the coming weeks. The union has confirmed that industrial action will continue on August 8 and 9 as indicated previously. BHP operations are not expected to be affected by the action. BHP announced in a statement that it will update its proposal at the next meeting, which is scheduled for August 18. The statement said: "With another scheduled meeting and a new proposal coming, we've?made significant advances with the?Commission's help and there's no need for unions to continue their planned industrial action. Reporting by Sneha Mukherjee and Rajasik Mukherjee from Bengaluru and Melanie Burton from Melbourne. Editing by Tom Hogue.
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Qantas, Australia's airline, will buy back shares worth $52 million from Jetstar Japan.
Qantas Airways announced on Tuesday that Jetstar Japan would purchase its 33.32% share in the budget airline?in a deal worth 8.2 'billion yen (US $52.11 million). This will allow it to become a Japanese company and be rebranded under a different name. In the agreement signed by Qantas and Japan Airlines, Jetstar Japan will purchase the minority share of Qantas while the Development Bank of Japan becomes a new shareholder. Japan Airlines and Tokyo Century will keep their respective stakes. Jetstar Japan, after Qantas divestment from the airline market in Japan, will rebrand and?drop its "Jetstar' brand to strengthen their?position. Qantas says the move will allow it to redirect its capital towards Qantas' and Jetstar’s operations in Australia as well as across its international network. Qantas expects to gain an estimated A$115.49million (80.49million) in items other than underlying earnings from the share buyback, primarily in 2027. Qantas has said that it will 'continue to recognize its share of Jetstar Japan’s profits or losses' until the transaction is complete, which should be by June 2027. Jetstar Japan is a joint venture between Qantas Airlines, Japan Airlines and Mitsubishi Corp. The airline began to operate as a low cost carrier at the end of 2012?from Narita Airport, near Tokyo. The?announcement on Tuesday follows a non binding?memorandum between the parties that was revealed in February 2026.
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Williams buys Momentum for $5.5 Billion, but misses quarter estimates
Williams Pipeline Company announced on Monday that it will buy Momentum Midstream. The company is betting on the growing demand for LNG export facilities and power generation along with industrial users in the U.S. Gulf Coast. The deal, which includes approximately $3.5 billion cash, assumed debt, and about $2 billion of?Williams shares, will increase Williams' presence in the Haynesville Shale Basin, a major supplier of natural gas to Gulf Coast LNG Terminals. U.S. Pipeline companies benefit from the booming oil and natural gas production in?the Permian basin and from rising natural gas demand due to record LNG exports. They also use more electricity for AI operations, cryptocurrency mining, and data centers. Williams stated that the deal would add over 4,000 miles (over 1 million acres) of pipelines and gather, process and transport assets, with a combined daily capacity of approximately 6 billion cubic feet. Williams announced the $1.5 billion Delta Access pipeline project, a 2,25 bcfd project scheduled for early 2029. The 750 mmcfd Shelby Trough connector is also expected to be operational in mid-2028. In extended trading, shares of the Tulsa-based Oklahoma company rose by?about 2 percent? Total costs and expenditures rose to $1.87billion for the quarter ending June 30th from $1.84billion a year ago. Interest expenses for the quarter ended June 30 increased by about 6%, to $371m from $350m a year ago. Interest rates that are higher for longer increases the borrowing costs of power companies. These companies need to borrow more money for their expenses, such as upgrading and maintaining the electric grid. According to LSEG data, the?company's adjusted profit for the second quarter of $0.50 per share fell short of analysts' average estimates, which were $0.51. This was due to higher interest and operation expenses. Reporting by Khusbu Jennifer in Bengaluru, editing by Shreya Biwas
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Williams to purchase Momentum Midstream at $5.5 billion
Williams announced on Monday that it would buy Momentum Midstream, for $5.5 billion. It also said that its profit outlook for the full year was to be raised. The company will expand its natural gas network within the Haynesville Shale in order to meet growing Gulf Coast demand for liquefied gas and electricity. The deal, according to the pipeline operator, is valued up to $5.5 Billion. This includes $3.5 Billion in cash and debt as well as approximately $2 Billion in Williams equity. Williams now has more than 4,000 miles of pipe in the Haynesville area, and 1 million acres dedicated to it. The Haynesville region can gather 6 billion cubic feet of gas per day. Three take-or pay pipelines are able move 4,05 billion cfd. The company stated that the assets would?strengthen its position in an important supply basin for Gulf Coast LNG export plants, power generating stations and industrial users. The company has 'lifted their 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $8.3 to $8.5 billion, up from the previous midpoint of $8.2 billion. The company reported second-quarter EBITDA of $1.921 bn, up from $1.808 bn a year ago. The net income for the quarter rose to $827 million or $0.68 per share from $546 millions or $0.45 a year earlier. Reporting by Khusbu?Jena in Bengaluru, editing by Shreya Biwas
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Venezuelan oil exports dropped slightly in July but cargoes to the US increased
Venezuela's oil exports dropped to 1.16m barrels per day from 1.2m bpd in July as the country drained less inventories. However, exports to the U.S. rose to 786,000 bpd - the highest level since early 2019. Shipping data revealed on Monday. Exports of the OPEC nation have rebounded rapidly from lows never seen before, due to?U.S. The Trump administration imposed sanctions and a navy blockade to remove President Nicolas Maduro. Washington signed a key oil supply agreement with interim president Delcy Rodriquez in January. This allowed Venezuelan oil to be returned mainly through trading houses, but also directly via the U.S. and Europe. The export volume in July was a'second consecutive month' of decline, after reaching a high of 1,24 million bpd during May. This was due to fewer exports of fuel and crude oil from both onshore and float storage. The data showed that shipments to the U.S. increased from 284,000 bpd per day in January. Venezuelan oil exports fell from 277,000 to 178,000 barrels per day (bpd), while the cargoes bound for Europe dropped to 82,200 from 99,000 in the previous month. The exports of the main U.S. Chevron joint?venture partner for PDVSA, U.S. Chevron remained virtually unchanged at around 293,000 bpd. Meanwhile, trading?firms such as Vitol?Trafigura, and Novum Energy shipped about 604,000 bpd during July, down from 775,000 bpd recorded in June. The data and documents show that PDVSA resumed direct 'crude' deliveries last month to partner Repsol in order to settle a pending debt. It also plans to deliver a cargo of the same nature to Maurel & Prom later this month. According to data, Venezuela exported 324,000 metric tons of oil products and petrochemicals in July, up from 224,000 tons in June. It also imported 81,000 bpds of heavy naphtha, to dilute the heavy crude grades.
You want to build a metal smelter of your own? Andy Home
The race to secure vital minerals has created a wealth of opportunity for countries that have the fortune of having the right metal deposits.
The goal is to extract as much value as you can from the metals in the earth.
The obvious answer is processing. Smelters that convert ore to metal are not only more valuable, but also provide a path to greater industrial and economic growth.
It's a way for Western policymakers to loosen China's grip over midstream capacity in a large part of the critical metals spectrum.
According to a joint study by the consultancy CRU, and the World Bank, there are "vast" barriers to setting up a successful business. (Technical and economic feasibility of smelting and refining in developing countries, June 2026).
In order to be profitable during low-price cycles, power supply, infrastructure and logistics are all important.
CONTROL THE ORE
Of course, it helps if the minerals are available.
Integrating domestic mining with processing helps to build price resilience.
It's hard to be in the zinc or copper smelting industry without a guaranteed source of feed. Spot treatment conditions are not favorable, so non-integrated smelters must rely on revenue streams from by-products to survive.
The ore must be kept at home.
Indonesia is the leader in imposing raw material export restrictions to force miners into building processing plants.
Other people do the same.
Cobalt exports are restricted in the Democratic Republic of Congo, lithium is controlled by Zimbabwe and bauxite is controlled by Guinea.
Angola is an interesting exception. It has no bauxite, but it is building a smelter at the port of Barra do Dande with a first-stage production capacity of 120,00 metric tons annually.
Have the Infrastructure
The Angolan project has a deep sea port that is suitable for raw material handling.
The free-trade area is also strategically located, with shared infrastructure and rates for business, as well as reliable power.
Power at a competitive price is essential for any aluminium smelter. This industry can use as much energy as a city of the size Boston in one year.
According to the report, Angolan electricity costs are comparable to global averages. The same is not true in Mozambique, which is why South32 put its Mozal power plant on care and maintenance.
The infrastructure that is most important for copper and zinc smelters is their ability to store, transport, and place the sulphuric acids generated during the smelting processes.
Co-location of copper smelters with large acid users such as fertilizer factories or, as in Zambia, regional mines that use acid as a leaching agent is the most cost-effective.
GET CHINESE HELP
The project's low-cost construction is another advantage.
The capital expenditure (capex), which is estimated at around $2,084 for every ton of aluminum, is higher than the domestic Chinese smelters, but "remarkably" low compared to the rest the world.
The project uses production equipment that was idled in China.
The Chinese are also leading the massive expansion in Indonesia of aluminium smelting capacities, and it is a similar low capex at under $3,000 per tonne.
Capex?for any type of smelter located outside China has been rising due to the soaring costs for equipment and construction.
The number of equipment providers has decreased as fewer smelters have been built in Western countries in the past decade. Prices have increased accordingly.
The authors of the report point out that "Modular equipment with lower specifications and Chinese technology can provide more affordable options."
Not everyone is a winner
It is not possible to build processing capacity in a universal way.
The success or failure of a project depends on a range of complex economic, technical, and institutional factors that differ by metal and country.
Zambia has successfully built up copper processing capacity, but Peru's mining sector and infrastructure are designed to provide raw materials to overseas metal smelters through ocean ports.
Angola's aluminum project is more feasible that Ghana's hopes to revive its existing Volta Smelter. This project faces high modernisation cost, increased?power prices and a lack vertical integration with an Alumina Refinery.
Zimbabwe's lithium reserves are greater than those of Nigeria, which rely on small-scale artisanal mining.
Turkiye’s Siirt Zinc Smelter Project benefits from a strong demand for zinc from the country’s thriving steel sector and a design which allows it to produce valuable by-products like lead, nickel, cobalt and cadmium.
The economics of a site can make a huge difference in the success or failure of a product.
The report concludes that "developing countries should be careful which metals they use, where they locate them, and what business model they choose."
The World Bank is interested in hearing from you if?you are still interested in building a smelter. The World Bank may be able help.
Andy Home is a columnist at. This column is great! Check out Open Interest, your new essential source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. Listen to the Morning Bid podcast daily on Apple, Spotify or the app. Subscribe to the Morning Bid podcast and hear journalists discussing the latest news in finance and markets seven days a weeks.
(source: Reuters)