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US keeps its LNG exports crown even as radiance fades: Maguire

U.S. melted gas exports are on track to reach brand-new highs in 2024, as record domestic gas production spurred the 10th straight year of volume growth in the lucrative LNG export sector.

U.S. LNG deliveries for 2024 look set to hit 86.9 million metric loads, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler.

That total is around 720,000 heaps or 0.8% more than in 2023, therefore sustains the growth trend of U.S. LNG exports in spite of quick blackouts at a variety of export terminals in 2024 and delays at brand-new jobs that are under building.

BUMPY TRIP

Despite the volume growth, it hasn't been an easy year for the U.S. LNG export sector, which became the world's biggest in 2015.

Record gas output in the house integrated with slowing gas need in crucial markets led to a roughly 21% fall in average U.S. LNG export costs up until now this year compared to 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Details Administration (EIA).

From January through September, LNG export rates averaged $ 6.15 per thousand cubic feet, according to EIA.

That compares to a $7.75 average over the exact same period in 2023 and a $12.20 average in 2022, which was when Russia's. invasion of Ukraine set off power sector chaos and a sharp. increase in LNG imports across Europe.

This year's fall in U.S. LNG export prices was greater than. the roughly 15% decrease over the exact same duration in Henry Hub. gas futures - the U.S. criteria gas rate - and so. helped capture LNG exporter earnings through much of 2024.

MARKET MOVERS

A 22% drop in purchases by leading market Europe from 2023's. levels likewise harmed U.S. LNG exporters by requiring them to discover. other purchasers, often in more distant and dispersed areas that. take longer and cost more to service.

For 2024 as a whole, Europe is on track to acquire 43.8. million lots of LNG from the U.S., which is 12.7 million lots. less than European buyers acquired in 2023 and the most affordable. full-year total because 2021, according to Kpler.

To balance out the lower orders from Europe, U.S. exporters had. to call up sales to Asia, where volumes climbed by 8 million. lots on the year to 31.6 million heaps this year.

However shifting those volumes to purchasers in Japan, South Korea,. India and China costs more than the equivalent freight loads to. Europe due to the far longer journey times.

The journey period from Sabine Pass LNG export terminal in. the U.S. Gulf to Sodegaura LNG import terminal in Japan is. roughly thirty days - two times as long as the journey to Rotterdam port in. the Netherlands, which is Europe's main gas center.

Longer journey times suggests greater freight expenses as well more. boil-off of the gas from storage tanks, which results in lower. volumes that can be released upon shipment.

RATE TRENDS

Rising worldwide natural gas costs look set to enhance incomes. for gas sellers heading into 2025, and must see LNG exporter. revenues get in the months ahead.

Forward gas rates in the TTF gas trading center in the. Netherlands are presently projected to climb by nearly 12% in. 2025 from the 2024 average, while Henry Hub futures are seen. climbing up by 32% from their 2024 average, according to LSEG.

However, higher gas costs might likewise serve to weaken the. appetite for LNG in cost-sensitive economies where coal and. other power sources are cheaper and more abundant.

Combined LNG purchases by India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are. on course to strike a record of nearly 40 million loads in 2024,. according to Kpler.

But power producers in those countries rank among the most. cost-sensitive in Asia, and are well versed in changing out gas. for other fuels when rate moves or other market forces determine.

In 2022, when worldwide LNG and gas prices soared in the wake. of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, combined purchases into South. Asia dropped by 16%, or 6 million loads, from the year before as. gas purchasers balked at the high gas expenses.

In 2025, gas buyers in that area could once again make a. retreat from world markets if rates climb to wasteful. levels and justify using coal or other fuels instead.

Even in wealthier Europe, gas purchasers might also slow purchases. if local commercial activity remains muted, or if renewables and. other clean energy sources enhance products enough to displace. fossil fuel output.

This level of LNG demand unpredictability indicates more development in. overall LNG export volumes is not ensured in 2025.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market. analyst .

(source: Reuters)