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India pledges to continue development in Kashmir following tourist attack
Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister, said that India was committed to developing its restive Jammu-and-Kashmir territory. He accused Pakistan of trying to destroy livelihoods in the region with a deadly attack on tourists last April. He spoke on his first trip to the Himalayan region after islamists attacked Hindu tourists in Pahalgam, killing 26 of them. This sparked hostilities that led to a ceasefire between the two nuclear-armed neighbors last month. The attack will not hinder the atmosphere of development in Jammu & Kashmir. Modi made the following remarks after launching infrastructure projects: "I will not allow development to stop here." The $5 billion rail link connecting the Kashmir Valley with the rest of India has taken more than 40-years to build and includes the highest railway arch in the world. Other projects include city roads, highways and a new medical school. India accused Pakistan of supporting the April attack. Islamabad denied this claim. They engaged in fierce fighting for four days last month, before reaching a ceasefire. Modi claimed that Pakistan was trying to undermine the livelihoods and tourism of the poor people in Kashmir. He added that he would overcome any obstacles to regional development. The Pakistani foreign ministry didn't immediately reply to a comment request on Modi remarks. Islamabad stated last month that a peaceful and just resolution to the Kashmir dispute is essential for a lasting peace in this region known for its picturesque lakes, lush meadows and tulip garden. This region, which attracted more than three million tourists last year, is the source of hostility between two old enemies who claim it both in full but only rule it partially and have fought over it twice in their three wars. India accuses Pakistan as well of supporting Islamist militants who are fighting security forces in Jammu & Kashmir, but Islamabad rejects the accusation. The Kashmir Valley has trains, but this is the first time that they are connected to the Indian Railway network. It is also expected to boost the region's economy and revive tourism which fell after the April attacks. $1 = 85,7500 Indian Rupees (Reporting and editing by YPrajesh, Clarence Fernandez and Sakshi Dayal)
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Asian spot prices fall on weak demand and strong stocks
The price of Asian spot LNG (liquefied natural gases) fell for the first week in five as weak demand in Asia weighed on the prices. Average LNG price for July deliveries into North-east Asia Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $12.30, down from $12.40/mmBtu a week ago. "LNG demand has been weak in Asia." "There have not been any signs of strong demand from major consumers such as China and India", said Siamak Adibi. Director for gas and LNG Supply Analytics at FGE. The demand for Southeast Asia is also muted, despite some organic growth on newer markets. Adibi said that scheduled maintenance at Sabine Pass, in the U.S.A. and Australian Projects in the next few weeks will however constrain supply. Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG pricing said that while temperatures in South Korea and Japan are expected to be above average for the season in the next few weeks, buyers in both countries already have large stocks and do not need to buy more spot volume. Indian demand is also weak because of the monsoon. GAIL is dealing with tank-top problems, which has led to two mid-voyage diversion away from India in this week. Other Indian buyers have been largely excluded from the market, as prices are now above $12.00/mmBtu. This has affected their price-sensitive demand. Data from the Industry Ministry showed that the LNG stocks held by the major Japanese electric utilities at the end of June were 2.26 million tonnes, compared to 2.07 million tonnes the same period last year and 2.18 millions tons on average over the past five years. In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily North West Europe Gas Marker price benchmark on a ship-to-ship basis for cargoes that were delivered in July at $11.774/mmBtu. This was a $0.465/mmBtu reduction from the gas price for July at the Dutch TTF Hub. Spark Commodities set the price at $11.750/mmBtu for July, while Argus put it at $11.79/mmBtu. Hans Van Cleef is the chief energy economist of PZ-Energy. He said that natural gas inventories have begun to grow in Europe. The price difference between winter and summer is still small, so the level of filling remains similar to previous years. Since energy companies must deliver gas during the winter season, they are buying it as usual. According to Spark Commodities analyst Max Glen Doepel, the U.S. Arbitrage to Northeast Asia via the Cape of Good Hope has decreased and still points towards Europe. However, the arbitrage through Panama is slightly pointing toward Asia. He added that the rates for LNG freight in Atlantic and Pacific have been slightly lowered to $29,000/day, and $20,000/day, respectively. (Reporting and editing by Emily Chow)
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Russian Urals oil sold to India at the lowest discount since 2022, traders claim
Four traders who are active in the market stated on Friday that spot supply has tightened and reduced discounts for Russian Urals crude oil to be delivered to Indian ports by July. This is the lowest discount since 2022. Indian refiners are being pushed by tight supplies and narrowing discounts to look for alternative products through purchasing tenders. Sources said that spot discounts for Urals crude for cargoes arriving to India in July decreased to an average of $2.25 per barrel, compared to $2.70 to $3.10 a barrel for dated Brent delivered ex-ship basis the previous month. This is the smallest discount on Urals oil sold to India since 2022, when the Ukraine War broke out. India has become the biggest buyer of Russian crude oil after Moscow diverted energy away from the European Union, which had imposed a block. Sources claim that some Indian refiners who do not have long term supply agreements with Russian oil firms are not receiving enough Urals oil this July. Reliance Industries, India's largest refiner, signed a contract for a long-term supply with Rosneft, the Russian oil giant, last year. This reduced the availability of Urals on the spot market. Russian oil traders pointed to a recent increase in demand from Turkish refiners, who have increased their purchases, increasing the competition between Indian refiners and Russian refiners. Tupras, Turkey's largest refiner of oil, has resumed purchasing Urals after earlier this year stopping due to tougher U.S. Sanctions against Moscow. Two traders said that improving margins in the refining industry globally has also helped to boost Russian oil demand, as refiners are keen to increase crude production. India is the largest buyer of Russian Urals by sea. Imports reached a 10-month-high in May. (Reporting from Nidhi in NEW DELHI, and reporters in MOSCOW. Editing by Clarence Fernandez.)
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China shows Pacific nations its coast guard capabilities, and moves towards patrolling the high seas
Pacific Islands officials have said that China has taken further steps to board fishing boats on the high seas for the first times in the Pacific. This could cause tensions with Taiwanese and U.S. Coast Guard ships who ply this region. Last week, the Chinese Coast Guard showed Pacific Island Ministers the capabilities of its largest ship, which is used to enforce maritime laws in the Taiwan Strait. According to documents and interviews conducted with Pacific fisheries officials, the Chinese Coast Guard is also actively engaged in discussions on high seas boarding rules. Fisheries officials predicted that China would soon begin patrols within a "crowded space" for fisheries surveillance. In an interview, Allan Rahari said, "Hosting the leaders and demonstrating their capability in terms of maritime operation are all indications that they want to enter this space." The agency enforces against illegal fishing in 18 Pacific Island Countries, assisted by patrols of the Australian, United States, France, and New Zealand air and navy forces. Chinese and Taiwanese fishing boats are the largest in the Pacific. They also receive the most violations notices from inspectors. Rahari stated that security agreements with these countries could include Chinese coast guard patrols of coastal waters. China registered 26 coastguard vessels with the Western & Central Pacific Fisheries Commission in 2024. These vessels will be used for high seas boardings and inspections. Rhea Moss Christian, executive director of the WCPFC, said that although China has not notified them about any inspections they have conducted, Chinese officials are actively involved in the debate on rules for boardings. She said that China called for the review of guidelines last year, and in march, Chinese officials participated in a video conference about an Australian effort to strengthen voluntary regulations. Before boarding, WCPFC inspectors on international waters must obtain permission from the flag state of the vessel suspected before they can conduct any inspection. Rahari warned that it would be "very complex" diplomatically for a Chinese coastguard vessel to attempt to board a Taiwanese fisherman's boat. Beijing does not recognize Taiwan as a country. Chinese officials as well as the Chinese Coast Guard have not responded to comments. Australia refused to comment while Taiwan and U.S. Coast Guard declined to respond to requests for comments. SHIP TOUR Haixun 06 is a ship that can travel up to 18500 km (11,470 miles or 10,050 nautical miles), or for 60 days, without resupply, and was toured by 10 foreign ministers of Pacific Island nations. Justin Tkatchenko, Papua New Guinea's (PNG) Foreign Minister, said that 10 Pacific Island Ministers had seen the Chinese Coast Guard demonstrate a maritime drill but were told that they did not talk about Pacific patrols. PNG is currently negotiating with Australia a new defence agreement. It also struck a security deal in 2023 with the United States, allowing them to patrol PNG’s exclusive economic zone of 2.7 million square kilometers. Fiji announced that it approved a new maritime agreement with Australia in the past week. The government broadcaster of Nauru posted photos on social media from the Haixun 06 exercise, saying that it "reaffirmed" the importance of maritime co-operation between China and Pacific Island Nations. According to a December security agreement, Nauru is required to notify Australia prior the arrival of the Chinese navy. The U.S. Coast Guard signed maritime law enforcement agreements last year with 12 Pacific Island Nations, allowing them to enter their exclusive economic zones. They also increased their patrols. Rahari stated that "the key consideration for China is to enter that space without stepping onto other partners' toes because this will create conflict within the region, and that is what we do not want." As reported previously, the first U.S. Coast Guard Patrol in Vanuatu waters in 2024 saw local officials board several Chinese fisherman boats, finding violations, which Beijing criticized. WCPFC data show that since 2008, Chinese vessels have been issued 158 violations, or 46%, by inspectors from the U.S.A., France, and Australia. Taiwanese boats fishing were given 233 violations. (Reporting from Sydney by Kirstyn Needham; Additional reporting in Beijing by Liz Lee, Xiuhao chen and Ben Blanchard; Editing done by Raju Gopalakrishnan).
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Tesla shares are up as Politico reports that Musk and the White House will hold a call
Tesla shares recovered from their previous session on Friday after Politico reported White House aides had scheduled a phone call with Elon Musk, CEO, to ease tensions, following a public spat with U.S. president Donald Trump. In premarket trading, shares of the EV manufacturer were up 4.7% to $298.1. The stock fell 14.3% on Thursday, and the market lost approximately $150 billion - this is the largest one-day loss in value ever. Musk said that Trump should be impeached while Trump threatened to stop government contracts for Musk's businesses. Their relationship turned into a social media brawl. Fiona Cincotta is a senior analyst at City Index. She said that Trump's threats to end Tesla's subsidies and contracts are unlikely. I don't think this will escalate into something more than a few days of a verbal war. Trump criticised Musk's CEO in the Oval Office. The once close relationship deteriorated in public within hours as Musk and Trump exchanged insults about their respective companies, Trump's Truth Social, and Musk's X.
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After a fatal air crash, US Democratic Senators propose radical reforms to the air safety system
Seven Democratic Senators introduced air safety legislation on Thursday after a deadly collision between an Army Helicopter and an American Airlines Regional Jet in January near Reagan Washington National Airport that killed 67 people. Lawmakers have asked why the Federal Aviation Administration has not acted for years in response to close calls that involved helicopters near Reagan. The bill would mandate a review on helicopter operations and passenger safety at major airports. It would also require new FAA safety assessments after fatal passenger airline crashes and the use of ADS-B technology, an advanced aircraft tracking system. The FAA didn't immediately respond to our request for comment. Ted Cruz, Republican Chair of the Senate Commerce Committee, held a series aviation hearings, and demanded that the FAA and Army take action to reduce collision risks. Cruz did not immediately respond to a question about whether he backed the Democratic proposal. Senator Maria Cantwell said that the accident "exposed critical oversight gaps in aviation safety." She said that the legislation "closes danger loopholes which allowed aircraft to operate with essential safety technology without, and mandates modern surveillance system that enhances pilot awareness of aircraft nearby, and ensures that the FAA acts on data instead of ignoring them." The Army Black Hawk helicopter was not using ADS-B during a routine mission of training when it collided into the American jet. In April, the FAA announced that government helicopters would be required to use ADS-B near Reagan National except for "active national security missions." Families of the victims of the American plane crash have said that the bill is a "meaningful step forward" in aviation safety. This issue has become personal and urgent for the families. After a near-miss on May 1, the FAA suspended Army helicopters flying around the Pentagon. In recent months, there have been several other close calls that were troubling. In March, the National Transportation Safety Board reported that there have been more than 15,200 incidents between commercial aircraft and helicopters that had a lateral separation of less that 1 nautical mile, and a vertical separation of less that 400 feet. There were also 85 close calls during this period at Washington Reagan. In March, the acting FAA administrator Chris Rocheleau admitted that the data were troubling. Rocheleau stated that "clearly something was missed". (Reporting and editing by Leslie Adler, Jamie Freed and David Shepardson)
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Rumo cancels agreement to sell stake in Brazil Port Terminal to Bunge, Zen-Noh Grain
Brazilian rail operator Rumo has terminated a 2024 deal to sell a part of the terminal at Latin America’s largest port, to U.S. commodities traders Bunge and to a subsidiary from Japan’s Zen-Noh Group. Rumo stated in a filing with the Securities Commission that the conditions of the agreement for a 50% stake in the XXXIX Terminal, located in Santos Port, had not been fully met before the deadline. It did not give any further details. The parts were Announcement of the Deal Rumo reported that the agreement would be worth 600 million reais ($107.44 millions) in May 2024. Bunge released a statement confirming the termination, stating that it had accepted Rumo’s decision. Zen-Noh Grain didn't immediately respond to an outside of normal business hours request for comment. Caramuru Alimentos is the Brazilian grain processor that owns the other 50%. ($1 = 5,5845 reais). (Reporting and editing by Brendan O'Boyle; Patricia Vilas Boas, Andre Romani)
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Canadian regulator confirms that the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Pipeline project has begun
The British Columbia Environmental Assessment Office determined on Thursday that the work on the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Natural Gas Pipeline Project has already been substantially begun, according to the provincial government. B.C. said that the decision meant a certificate of environmental assessment for 2014 will remain valid indefinitely unless it is suspended or revoked under the Environmental Assessment Act. In a press statement, the government confirmed this. The PRGT project, which spans 900 km from Hudson's Hope to Lelu Island near Prince Rupert on Canada's Pacific Coast. The 900-kilometre PRGT project will run from Hudson's Hope in northeastern B.C. The Nisga'a First Nation, and Western LNG acquired it from TC Energy in March 2024 for the purpose of supplying natural gas to a proposed 12 million tonneS/year Ksi Lisims liquefied-natural facility. The certificate of environmental assessment issued in 2014 required that substantial progress be made on the project by November 25, 2020. The B.C. The B.C. According to the government statement, compliance and enforcement officers would continue to monitor PRGT throughout its construction and operation in order to ensure that it met all environmental requirements. (Reporting by Anjana Anil in Bengaluru; Editing by Nia Williams)
Bousso: Trump's China ethane import curbs are another self-harm exercise.
Trump Administration seeks license for ethane imports to China
China is responsible for 46% US ethane imports
Plastics are made from ethane
Ron Bousso
LONDON, 6th June - The Trump Administration's latest attempts to curb U.S. exports of petrochemicals to China may end up harming the U.S. economy just as much or even more than China.
The boom in plastics feedstocks between the two world's largest economies is an excellent example of how a global, dynamic trading system can benefit both parties. The U.S. ethane industry has grown rapidly in recent years. This excess production was met by an expansion of the overseas petrochemical market, especially from China.
Trump exempted all energy products from the "Liberation Day", sweeping import tariffs, on April 2. This was an apparent indication of Trump's administration's concern about the potential impact energy levies may have on consumer prices.
Enterprise Products Partners, a top U.S. operator of marine export terminals of liquid natural gas, announced on May 29 that an agency of Commerce had notified it that the company would now need a license to export butane and ethane to China because of the "unacceptable" risk that China could use the products for military purposes.
About 40% of the 213,000 barrels of ethane per day that Enterprise's main terminal exported last year was shipped to China. The company claimed it was unable to determine whether it would be able to obtain a license.
The U.S. move was the latest in Washington's high stakes trade war against Beijing. It seemed to have cooled somewhat after both sides met in Geneva in late November and agreed to a 90-day ceasefire to reduce triple-digit tariffs.
The rash nature of these trade war salvos is evident in the export restrictions, especially on ethane. Ethane is a natural gas byproduct that's used to make the building blocks of plastics.
There is no evidence that China's military uses ethane and butane beyond obvious dual-purpose use in plastics, heating fuel, or refrigerant. The notice of the export license did not mention polyethylene, a material that ethane can be used to produce.
It is clear that the loss in ethane from the United States will harm China's petrochemical industry. China reportedly exempted U.S. ethane in April from the reciprocal 125% tariff it imposed on U.S. imports. This was done to relieve pressure on China's petrochemical industry.
The curbs are cut in both directions.
Self-Inflicted Wound
According to Energy Information Administration, ethane production will reach a record 2,83 million bpd by 2024. This is a nearly threefold increase from 2014. The surge in U.S. onshore shale gas production was the main driver.
According to the EIA, the U.S. exports of ethane have increased 13-fold over the past decade, reaching 492,000 bpd. Of that amount, 46% went to China.
According to Kpler, China imported 261,000 bpd of ethane from the United States last year.
China is the only country that can absorb U.S. ethane at an increasing rate. According to the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, China's capacity to produce ethylene is expected to increase to 80 million tons annually by 2028, up from 55 million ton per year in 2024. This represents 50% of global new capacity.
India and Thailand are likely to become new markets for U.S. exports of ethane, but this will take time. The United States is increasing its ethane terminal capacity. However, the importing countries in Asia will need years to build their import terminals and ethane vessels.
Losing the U.S. feedstock of ethane will definitely erode profit margins for petrochemical producers in China. They will have to rely on more expensive feedstock naphtha or import ethane directly from smaller exporters. This could result in temporary plant closings under certain circumstances.
It is unlikely that it will have a significant impact on the growth trajectory of this sector in China.
According to Sinopec’s Economics and Development Research Institute’s 2024 annual report, around 70% of China’s total ethylene capacity uses naphtha. Ethane and liquid petroleum gases make up only 8%.
A halt to ethane imports to China would have a domino effect on the United States, where domestic inventories would build up and force producers to reduce ethane production in shale basins. The profitability of oil and natural gas drilling operations could be affected. This could result in an excessive amount of ethane being present in natural gas. The cost of producing liquefied gas, which is a major U.S. business, would increase.
It is possible that the Trump administration's ethane restrictions will achieve its goal of harming China's Petrochemical Industry, but at a cost to China's Oil and Gas industry. Want my weekly column, plus trending energy stories and additional insights delivered to your inbox? Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here.
(source: Reuters)