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Finland suspects four persons in breach of subsea cables
The Finnish police, who are investigating the damage done to two subsea cables in the Baltic Sea last year, said that four people were suspected of a crime. Prosecutors will decide whether or not charges should be brought. Finland has seized a cargo ship, Fitburg, on December 31, 'while it was en route to Israel from Russia. They suspected that the cables from Helsinki to Estonia across the Gulf of Finland had been damaged. This is one of many incidents of this nature in recent years. The police?on Saturday said that they had investigated suspected aggravated crimes, attempted aggravated crimes, and aggravated interferences with telecommunications. They were referring the case to prosecutors in order to determine if any charges should be filed. The police said in a press release that the investigation had concluded with four suspects. Three of them remain under a travel restriction. After a series of power outages, telecommunications failures, and gas pipeline disruptions since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Baltic Sea region has been on high alert. NATO has increased its military presence by adding aircraft, frigates, and naval drones. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Essi Lehto)
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Norway opposes tariffs and rejects US claims about forced labour
Norway's foreign minister has rejected a U.S. assessment that the Nordic country?failed? to prevent forced labor, adding?that?the allegation?was unfounded?and shouldn?t be used?by President Donald Trump?to justify new tariffs. The Trump administration proposed Tuesday tariffs of up to 12.5% on imported goods from 60 countries including Norway after concluding that they failed to curb the?trade in products made with forced labor, an assertion that many U.S. trading partners rejected. In a statement issued late on Thursday, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide stated that "we strongly disagree" with the U.S. authorities' assessment of Norway not doing enough to stop forced labour. The Transparency Act was the first legislation in the world to prevent forced labour from being used to supply chains. Barth Eide said that he had told the U.S. authorities about this. Experts, business groups, and some human right groups say that Trump's threat to slap new tariffs on trading partners will not do much to combat?modern slave trade -- and may even make matters worse. (Reporting and editing by Terje Solsvik, Jagoda Darlandak)
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Brokers bet on winners of various sectors as the World Cup soccer tournament kicks off
Analysts predict that the 2026 FIFA World Cup in host countries will bring billions of dollars to their economies. This will be driven by an unprecedented surge in consumption, which will boost sectors as diverse as retail, athletic wear and tourism. The tournament is set to be held from?June 11, to July 19, and will be the biggest soccer event in history. It could drive consumer spending during a period when broader demand is fragile. According to FIFA's analysis of the socioeconomic impact, which was conducted in conjunction with the World Trade Organization (WTO), the first three-nation World Cup (WC), which includes the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is expected to bolster the global GDP by approximately $41 billion. Here are the stocks and sectors that brokerages believe will benefit from this once every four years event: HOTEL OPERATORS B. Riley estimates that a total 13.1 million World Cup visitors, including both ticketed and unticketed attendees generated 21.3 million hotel room nights across all online travel platforms. Analysts say that U.S. hotel chains Marriott, Hilton, and Hyatt, as well as the online travel platforms Airbnb and Booking Holdings, as well as Expedia, are likely to benefit from this event. Marriott expects World Cup momentum to continue into the third quarter. Airbnb predicts that hosts in New York, New Jersey and Boston will earn the most money during the World Cup. Airline Tickets Goldman Sachs thinks WC could have a?net positive' effect on U.S. Airlines. Goldman stated that "June tends to be a lower season for inbound leisure travel and corporate travel, while a significant portion of the peak outbound travel season occurs after the WC has ended." The war in Iran has caused a sharp increase in the price of jet fuel, forcing U.S. airlines to raise fares, which is causing budget-conscious Americans delay or cancel their summer vacations. BEER STOCKS Jefferies estimates that more than 1 billion pints will be consumed worldwide during the holiday season. This represents a 0.3% increase in?volumes for the industry. Markets such as the U.S.A., Mexico and Brazil are expected to improve. Analysts at Jefferies said that after five years of volatile beer prices, the market should improve in 2026. The timing of the tournament is also a plus. Roughly 75% of matches will be played in the U.S. while 84% of the matches involving participating countries are in the beer-drinking-friendly time zones, the analysts added. Bernstein, Goldman and Jefferies believe that Corona beer maker Anheuser-Busch InBev will be the main beneficiary. Anheuser-Busch InBev is the official beer sponsor of the WC. Heineken, world's second largest brewer, will also benefit from the exposure it has in Latin America and Europe. US RETAIL AND 'SPORTSWEAR Goldman predicts that a surge of merchandise demand by fans will push sales up at Dick's Sporting Goods, and Academy Sports. Analysts said that sportswear brands like Adidas, Puma, and Nike could benefit from increased brand exposure and marketing during the World Cup. Goldman pointed out that Adidas, the official sponsor of match balls, has sponsorship deals with multiple teams. This allows it to gain global exposure at the event. FOOD, RESTAURANTS, AND DELIVERY Citi said that traditional?grocers like Albertsons and Kroger as well as larger retailers such Walmart and Target are likely to benefit during the World Cup from increased household spending. Tourism and group viewings are expected to support a rise in restaurant demand. This could lift McDonald's Pizzas, Domino's Pizzas, Wingstops, and Chipotles, as well as food distributors like Performance Food Group, US Foods, and Sysco. MEDIA AND DIGITAL ?PLATFORMS Deutsche Bank analysts stated that they expect the men's World Cup in 2026 to generate the largest US advertising revenues ever. Morgan Stanley estimated that the tournament would generate between $300 and $400 million in advertising revenue to Fox, the broadcaster of the English-language rights. Deutsche Bank pointed out that Comcast's?Telemundo which holds the Spanish-language broadcast rights is another potential beneficiary. Citi stated that internet companies like?Alphabet?s YouTube and Meta Platforms?s Instagram could benefit from an increase in user activity. BETTING OPERATORS The World Cup is expected to increase overall betting volumes, and Deutsche Bank expects Flutter Entertainment to outperform DraftKings. Macquarie predicted that global wagers would exceed $50 billion, or nearly $0.5 billion each match. This is compared to the 35 billion dollars for the previous tournament in 2022.
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Argentina recommends awarding the dredging contract to Jan de Nul, and local partners, despite US concerns
The Economy Ministry announced that the Argentine government had recommended awarding an important?dredging contract in Argentina to Belgian dredging firm Jan De Nul, and its local partner Servimagnus. Rep. Brian Mast, chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, warned in May about the "malign influence" of China in the bid to win the major contract for Argentina. Jan De Nul, and its local partner Servimagnus, denied any Chinese ties. * The recommendation is for the concession to dredge the Parana River and maintain it, as this river carries 80%?of?the trade of the country. In a late-Thursday statement, the ministry recommended that DEME, a Belgian competitor company, be rejected. *?Jan de Nul - Servimagnus? scored 66.20 in the technical evaluation stage, compared to 42.14 points for DEME. The statement said that both firms had submitted identical tariffs and received the maximum score for the economic component. DTA Engenharia, a Brazilian company, was declared inadmissible after failing to provide the required bid-maintenance guarantees. Before a final?award, a seven-day period has been opened for formal 'challenges' to the recommendation. The ministry added: * "The awarding of the contract will end the process and bring an end to the deadlock in the construction work on the waterway." * The waterway is a 3,400-kilometer natural river transport route that runs along the Parana River and the Paraguay River. It's essential for importing soybeans to Argentina, which are used in the production of oil, meal and other products.
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UAE markets benefit despite the stalled US/Iran peace talks
The stock markets of 'the United Arab Emirates' closed higher on Friday. Dubai outperformed its regional peers despite the fading hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and the U.S. Hezbollah, a militia backed by Iran, rejected a ceasefire on Thursday in?Lebanon and Israel announced it?wouldn't withdraw troops from the?country?undermining U.S. president Donald Trump's attempts to halt fighting?and achieve a peace?deal? with Tehran. Dubai's main index of shares rose by 0.9%, boosted by gains in the industrial and utilities sectors. Salik Company, a toll operator, increased by 1.6% while Emirates Central Cooling Systems grew 2.5%. Abu Dhabi's benchmark indices settled 0.3% higher, with the largest utility company Abu?Dhabi?National?Energy rising 6.2%. Alef Education's stock rose 1% following the?full migration to Microsoft Azure of its digital learning ecosystem with Core42's sovereign cloud capability. Brent crude was down?0.32% to $94.73 per barrel at 1232 GMT. (Reporting from Mohd. Edrees, Bengaluru. Editing by Shailesh. Kuber.)
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Pentagon: US forces board a sanctioned oil tanker in the Indian Ocean
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command announced on Friday that U.S. forces had seized the stateless sanctioned oil tanker Davina in the Indian Ocean overnight. Washington has placed a sea blockade against Iran, while Tehran has fired at ships to stop them from?sailing? through the Strait of Hormuz and entering the Middle East Gulf. In recent months, U.S. forces intercepted "multiple commercial and petroleum tankers" in the Indian Ocean. Indo-Pacific Command posted on X that "we will continue to enforce global maritime law to?disrupt illegal networks and 'interdict vessels providing materials support to Iran wherever they operate". According to data from ship tracking, the Davina is a supertanker that can carry up to 2 million barrels of crude oil. The U.S. placed sanctions on it in October 2024 because it was involved in?oil trade with Iran. Ship tracking data on MarineTraffic showed that the vessel, also known as the Lenore was last spotted on June 5, off the southern coast of Sri Lanka. Separate shipping data revealed that the vessel's?draft indicated it was almost fully?laden with an oil cargo. (Reporting and editing by Doina chiacu and Joe Bavier; Reporting and Editing by Susan Heavey, Jonathan Saul)
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Swedish court orders that seized cargo ships can be transferred to Ukraine
A Swedish court ruled on Monday that the seizure of an unidentified cargo ship in 'the Baltic Sea' was legal and that it could be sent to Ukraine where it is suspected of transporting grain illegally from Russian-occupied territory. The Swedish coast guard and police seized the Caffa in March off the southern Swedish coast, claiming it was operating under a false banner and had violated maritime and ship safety laws because of its lack of seaworthiness. According to the ruling of June 4, a lawyer for the owner Caffa Shipping Limited had challenged the seizure, and asked for the vessel's?release. The court stated that Ukraine was seeking the ship in connection with an investigation of suspected war crimes, including the removal and appropriation of property from Russian-occupied territories. Hakan Larsson, public prosecutor, said that in an email to?, "the court confirmed that the seizure was legal and that the vessel could be handed over to Ukraine." The district court ruled that the alleged conduct may constitute a crime of war under Swedish law. This cleared the way for the vessel to be transferred and the evidence it contained to the Ukrainian authorities. Larsson stated that the decision must be legally binding before any transfer of ownership can occur, and added?that owners have three week to appeal. The lawyer for Caffa?Shipping did not respond immediately to a further comment request. The police reported that the majority of the 11 crew members of the 'Caffa were Russians at the time of the seizure. According to the ship tracking service MarineTraffic, the vessel is a general cargo ship measuring 96 metres. Reporting by Jagoda darlak. Terje Solsvik, Mark Potter and Terje Slsvik edited the article.
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Greek shipping magnate: The West needs to speed up the scrapping of its shadow fleet, as dangers grow.
Western governments should accelerate the scrapping of unregulated vessels that have been sanctioned and give their operators time to dispose of them, as environmental risks are increasing daily. In recent years, the?use of so-called'shadow?fleets?or dark fleets of tankers has increased. Hundreds of tankers are transporting Iranian and Russian oil without any safety or insurance checks. Evangelos Marinakis is the founder and chairman at Greece's Capital Maritime & Trading Corp., a major ship owner with more than 285 vessels on order. He has been pushing to remove unregulated tankers in global trading. Marinakis said during the Posidonia Shipping Week in Athens that "we face environmental risks every day from dark fleet ships". He said, "We should allow dark-fleet vessels to be scrapped both in the United States of America and the European Union." Marinakis addressed the concern that proceeds from the disposal of ships would go to 'potentially sanctioned parties.' He said:?these typically amount to less profit than a single trip and scrapping would reduce the massive profits made by the shadow fleet. GMS, a leading ship recycling company based in Dubai, announced last month that it had received approval from the U.S. Government to scrap four containers ships which were subject to Iran-related sanctions. However, their seller wasn't affected by the sanctions. Marinakis stated that his group has been in contact with Washington and sent "a great deal of useful material". Marinakis declined to comment further and the U.S. Treasury didn't respond to an?ask for comment. The shipowner - who also owns the Olympiacos soccer team and Nottingham Forest soccer team - said that shadow fleet operators must be allowed to dispose of their ships in a certain time frame. Marinakis stated that if we gave them four to five months for the scrapping schedule, we would see a reduction of at least 20%-25% in "the dark fleet". He said that ship recyclers should be allowed to pay?dollars or?euros to the owners of dark fleets they are scrapping. But only for scrapping. "This is the way forward." (Reporting and additional reporting by Timothy Gardner, Editing by Tomasz Janowowski)
The fear of an Iranian oil calamity in Hormuz is more than just a myth.
Fears of Middle East oil disruption after US strikes on Iran
Iran has attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the past.
US Navy is likely to respond quickly in the event of disruptions
Ron Bousso
LONDON, 22 June - The U.S. strikes against several Iranian nuclear sites are a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict. This could cause Tehran to disrupt essential exports of gas and oil from the region, causing a spike in energy prices. History tells us, however, that any disruption will likely be brief.
Since Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on June 13 investors and energy markets were on high alert, fearing disruption of oil and natural gas flows from the Middle East. This was especially true for the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint that connects Iran with Oman, and through which 20% of global demand for oil and natural gas passes.
Since June 13, Brent crude oil prices have increased by over 10%, to more than $77 per barrel.
Although Israel and Iran have both targeted their respective energy infrastructures, there has not been a significant disruption of maritime activity in the area so far.
The decision of President Donald Trump to bomb three of Iran's nuclear sites early Sunday morning, along with Israel, could change Tehran's calculations. Iran has few options and could respond by attacking U.S. targets in the region or disrupting oil flow.
Although such a move is almost certain to lead to an abrupt spike in energy prices worldwide, the history of the market and its current dynamics suggests that any move will likely be less harmful than investors fear.
Can they do it?
First, we need to know if Iran has the capability of blocking or seriously disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
Answer: Probably yes. Iran could try to place mines in the Strait which measures 34 km wide (21 miles at its narrowest). The Iranian army or paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could also strike or seize ships in the Gulf. This is a tactic they have used in recent years.
Hormuz was never completely blocked but it has been interrupted several times.
During the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, both sides were involved in what was called the "Tanker Wars", which took place in the Gulf. Iraq attacked Iranian ships and Iran attacked commercial vessels, including Saudi, Kuwaiti, and U.S. Navy ships.
Ronald Reagan, the then-President of the United States, deployed his navy in 1987 and 1988 after Kuwait appealed to him. This was called Operation Earnest Will. The operation ended shortly after an American navy ship shot down Air Iran Flight 655 killing all 290 of its passengers.
At the end of 2007, tensions in the Strait erupted again in a series skirmishes involving the Iranian and U.S. Navy. One incident involved Iranian speedboats approaching U.S. battleships. No shots were fired. In the Gulf of Oman, Iranian troops captured the Advantage Sweet crude oil tanker chartered by Chevron in April 2023. The vessel was freed more than a full year later.
The U.S. Navy would respond to any Iranian attempt at disrupting maritime traffic in the Gulf with a swift, forceful response, thus limiting the possibility of a long-lasting supply shock.
HISTORY LESSON
History has shown that major disruptions in global oil supply have been short-lived.
Brent crude doubled to $40 per barrel in mid-October 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait. By January 1991, prices had returned to pre-invasion levels after a U.S. led coalition launched Operation Desert Storm. Kuwait was liberated the following month.
Even less impactful was the start of the second Gulf War between March and may 2003. The 46% rise in stock prices between November 2002 to March 2003, which was the period leading up to the war, was reversed quickly in the days before the U.S. led military campaign.
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, causing oil prices to spike to $130 per barrel. However, prices fell back to $95 in mid-August, their levels before the invasion.
The rapid rise in oil prices curbed the demand at the time, and this was a major factor for the relatively quick turnaround of the oil price spikes, according to Tamas Varga an analyst with oil brokerage PVM.
The global oil market was also shook by the Arab embargo of 1973 and the Iranian revolution of 1979, when attacks on oilfields in the country severely disrupted the production. These attacks did not include the blockade of Hormuz, and they were not met by a direct military response from the United States.
There is certainly spare capacity on the current global oil markets. OPEC+ is an alliance of oil producing nations that holds around 5.7 millions barrels of excess capacity per day. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have 4.2 million bpd.
Today, the Strait of Hormuz is the main route through which oil is transported from Saudi Arabia and UAE.
However, the two Gulf countries could bypass this strait via oil pipelines. Saudi Arabia is the top oil exporter in the world, with around 9 million barrels per day. It has a crude oil pipeline that runs between the Abqaiq Oilfield in the Gulf Coast in the east and the Red Sea port of Yanbu in west. The pipeline can handle 5 million barrels per day and has been temporarily expanded by 2 million barrels per day in 2019.
The UAE produced 3.3 millions bpd of oil in April. A 1.5 million bpd oil pipeline links its oilfields on the coast to the Fujairah terminal, east of the Strait of Hormuz.
This western route is also vulnerable to the attacks of the Houthis, who are backed by Iran and have disrupted the Suez Canal shipping in recent years. Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have no other alternative to the Suez Canal.
Iran may decide not to block the Strait, in part, because it would disrupt its oil exports. Tehran may also see any further escalation as futile in light of U.S. intervention and instead downplay the importance and return to nuclear negotiations.
Fearing a further escalation of the situation, the energy markets are likely to react to the U.S. strike with a dramatic increase in crude oil prices. Even in the worst-case scenario, where the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, historical evidence suggests that markets shouldn't expect a persistent supply shock.
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(source: Reuters)