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SEBI of India dismisses Hindenburg claims against Adani group
The Securities and Exchange Board of India dismissed on Thursday allegations of stock manipulating against billionaire Gautam Adani and his company group made by U.S. Short-seller Hindenburg Research. SEBI began to investigate Adani Group companies in 2023, including Adani Power, Adani Ports and Adani Enterprises after Hindenburg accused the group of using tax havens as well as failing to disclose related party transactions. The conglomerate, while denying wrongdoings, was forced to sell off $150 billion worth of its stock. Since then, the shares have recovered. Adani's spokesperson didn't immediately comment on the SEBI decision. The order was made in two different orders. SEBI stated that the transactions between Adani Group companies and companies flagged up by Hindenburg were not related party transactions, and did not violate disclosure norms or represent market manipulation.
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Sources say that Russia has revised its oil export plans to Novorossiisk and Ust-Luga as Primorsk is facing delays.
Two sources familiar with the schedule said that Russia increased its planned oil loads from the Black Sea port Novorossiisk and the Baltic port Ust-Luga for September due to disruptions at Primorsk. Diversion of oil to western ports that are less damaged may help Russia maintain overall exports despite damage to infrastructure. Moscow is trying to maintain oil sales which are the mainstay of its budget revenues. Drone attacks on Russian refineries caused unplanned shutdowns. This has also led to an increase in seaborne shipping. Ukraine has increased its drone attacks against Russia's oil-and-gas infrastructure since early August, amid frustration with the direction that peace talks have taken. The Kremlin claims the talks are now effectively on hold. Sources said that the outages left more crude oil for export. Sources said that Ust-Luga will now load at least 2 million tonnes or 500,000 barrels each day, instead of the initial 1.5 million tonnes. Port continues to run below capacity due to repairs following the damage caused by drone strikes on August 22nd, 2016 at Unecha Pumping Station. Unecha is crucial for flow to Ust-Luga, and Druzhba. Novorossiisk will load about 750,000 bpd or 3.1 millions tonnes, which is an increase of approximately 350,000 tons over the original plan. The sources said that this is the highest level of exports from the terminal for months. Primorsk's loadings, which were expected to reach 900,000 barrels per day in September, may also be delayed and reduced. After drone attacks disrupted the port's operations, crude and diesel exports resumed in part on Saturday. However, repairs are still ongoing and it is unclear when the port will be fully operational again. According to LSEG shipping information, as of Thursday two Aframax tanks -- Kusto, and Cai Yun, -- that were hit in the strikes remained anchored close to Primorsk. A source noted that the limited availability of tankers makes it difficult to divert volumes from Primorsk towards Novorossiisk. The source stated that it was not simple to adjust a tanker to Russian oil loadings, or to change the destination of a vessel at short notice. (Reporting and Editing by Susan Fenton).
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Aena, a Spanish airport operator, will invest $15 billion over the next five years in upgrading airports.
Aena, the Spanish airport operator, announced on Thursday that it will triple its investment to 12,88 billion euros (15.24 billion dollars) between 2027-2031. The aim is to upgrade terminals in order to accommodate an increase in passenger traffic. The company expects Spanish airports to handle 320 million passengers by 2025. This is a 3.4% rise from the previous year. Record 309 Million The Spanish economy has grown at a rapid pace, thanks to booming tourism. Aena shares dropped 4.7% after the announcement on Thursday. Airport operator anticipates that the volume of passengers will continue to grow in the future. The main airports of Spain Are set to become major hubs of intercontinental connectivity. In a speech delivered on Thursday, Chief Executive Maurici Lucena stated that "Madrid airports and Barcelona airports have reached capacity and require a new round of investment." "They are very busy," he said. In the first eight month of 2018, international arrivals to Spain grew by 5.9%, reaching 75.4 millions. Lucena said that Aena would face both technical and commercial challenges in the years to come, since the company would be undertaking multiple projects simultaneously at airports across Spain while ensuring uninterrupted operation. Aena, which is the largest airport operator worldwide in terms of passengers and has budgeted 3,54 billion euro of investment for the four-year period ending in 2026. According to the company, the Spanish cabinet will review the proposed investment plans on October 15.
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The key to the surprise Air Europa deal in Turkey was control
Turkish Airlines' surprising deal to buy a stake in Spanish airline Air Europa was largely due to the fact that it was willing to share control with Hidalgo's family, according to four sources. This deal is a rare non-European airline's stake in Europe. Airlines are trying to consolidate Europe's fragmented markets and buy smaller struggling operators such as Scandinavia's SAS or Italy's ITA Airways. Sources close to the deal have said that Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and others wanted more control over Air Europa. Turkish Airlines, with its deeper pockets and political support and a desire to expand globally, was willing to accept a smaller stake. Turkish Airlines Chairman Ahmet Bolat announced on Wednesday that the airline had agreed to invest $300 million in convertible debt. This is equivalent to 25-27% of Air Europa. The crux of the talks, previously unknown, is Turkish Airlines' willingness and ability to give up influence to get a foothold with Iberia. This opens up fast-growing and important routes to Latin America. Sources familiar with the deal said that both Air France-KLM and Lufthansa demanded a "path to control" in a few short years, something the Hidalgos refused to do. Source: The Turkish deal "fit better", added the source. Three other sources confirmed that the issue of controlling stake was the reason for both Air France-KLM & Lufthansa pulling out of the deal. Air Europa's estimated value of up to 1,2 billion euros was also deemed too high by one of the sources. Lufthansa has not responded to a comment request. A spokesperson for Air France-KLM said that the carrier pulled out of the deal because it could not reach an agreement with Air Europa's owners Globalia on certain key issues, without commenting if they wanted a majority share. Javier Hidalgo of Globalia, the son Juan Jose Hidalgo's chairman, refused to comment on this story when contacted by. Turkish Airlines' deal is unusual - non-European carriers rarely take stakes in European carriers. This is because European Union regulations prevent them from acquiring majority ownership of an EU airline. Analysts and executives have said that Air Europa has always been a difficult case to navigate from a competition perspective, given British Airways' 20% ownership. The benefits for Turkish Airlines, however, are less about financial gains and more about geopolitics, connectivity and other factors. Neil Glynn is an analyst with Alvarez and Marsal. He said that taking minority stakes can lead to a loss of control and a diminished ability to influence the strategy. Air France-KLM, Lufthansa and other airlines balked at having to balance out so many controlling parties. IAG had previously attempted to buy out Air Europa, but the plan was scrapped last year due to regulatory concerns. Business Strategy or State Plan? Turkish Airlines touts the deal as a chance to expand into its two least penetrated markets, Iberia and Latin America, and link them with their hub-and-spoke system. It also has political weight behind it. Turkish Transport Minister Abdulkadir Uraloglu, who appeared in Seville with the airline this week to promote the deal, said it would fit into a wider "strategy", to connect Turkey to the world. Ahmed Bolat, Turkish Airlines' Ahmed Bolat, told reporters the decision was made as a matter of business even though the Turkish government had the firm's attention. He said that "(Turkish listens and considers the strategies of the state, but its own strategies are developed privately." The Turkish carrier faces few financial obstacles that could threaten its relatively small share. The forecast net debt-to-EBITDAR ratio of the group for 2025 is 1,60. This ratio is similar to Lufthansa or Air France KLM, even though they have weaker balances and less support from their governments. Erdem Kayli is the research director for TEB Investment/BNP Paribas. $1 = 0.8448 euro (Reporting and editing by Adam Jourdan, Susan Fenton, Tim Hepher, Inti Landauro and Andres Gonzalez)
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The price of oil shipping has risen due to increased exports from the Middle East and tighter vessel availability
According to industry sources, and LSEG's data, freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers have risen to their highest level in over two years. This is due to a tightening of tanker supplies, resulting from an increase in Middle East exports, and more arbitrage supplies into Asia. The key VLCC rate on the Middle East-China route, also known as TD3C LSEG data shows that, jumped up to W108 in the Worldscale Industry Measure, its highest level since November 20,22. According to industry sources, this is at least $6.6 Million. Since the beginning of this year, the rate has risen by almost 150%. A shipbroker said on Thursday that "we are seeing constant cargoes coming from ex-MEG loading (Middle East) and ex Atlantic while the vessel's tonnage list has been balanced very tightly." Shipping industry sources told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, held in Singapore last week, that robust VLCC freight rates will yield attractive earnings to shipowners this coming year. Data from Kpler, an analytics firm, showed that crude exports from the Middle East will exceed 18 million barrels a day in September, for the first since April 2023. This is after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a collective known as OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production. The robust Asian demand will also force tankers to travel further distances due to the arbitrage supply. Indian refiners, for example, increased their U.S. crude purchase in October and November while Chinese independent refiners buy oil from Brazil and West Africa. Sentosa Shipbrokers said that the main reason for the September surge was the arbitrage between U.S. Gulf and East Asia flows, as well as the tightness caused by the vessels' commitment to these long-haul journeys. Anoop Singh, global director of shipping research for Oil Brokerage, says Saudi Arabia exports more oil because the demand for burning crude for electricity generation in summer has ceased, while arbitrage opportunities are wide open due to high Dubai crude prices. He said that the short-term forecast is for the momentum in Dubai prices to continue through the end of this year and into the first quarter of next year. The strength could be amplified further if the medium-quality crude supplies, like those from Russia, are reduced due to geopolitical tensions. U.S. president Donald Trump stated on Saturday that he was willing to impose new energy sanctions against Russia if NATO nations stopped purchasing Russian oil.
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The price of oil shipping has risen due to increased exports from the Middle East and tighter vessel availability
According to industry sources, and LSEG's data, freight rates for Very Large Crude Carriers have risen to their highest level in over two years. This is due to a tightening of tanker supplies, resulting from an increase in Middle East exports, and an increase in arbitrage supplies into Asia. The Middle East to China VLCC Spot Rate, also known as TD3C. LSEG data shows that jumped up to W108, the highest since November 2022. According to industry sources, this is at least $6.6 Million. Since the beginning of this year, the rate has increased nearly 150%. A shipbroker said on Thursday that "we are seeing constant cargoes coming from ex-MEG loading (Middle East) and ex Atlantic while the vessel's tonnage list has been balanced very tightly." Shipping industry sources told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, held in Singapore last week, that robust VLCC freight rates will yield attractive earnings to shipowners this coming year. Data from Kpler, an analytics firm, showed that crude exports from the Middle East will exceed 18 million barrels a day in September, for the first since April 2023. This is after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a collective known as OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production. The robust Asian demand will also force tankers to travel further distances due to the arbitrage supply. Indian refiners, for example, increased their U.S. crude purchase in October and November while Chinese independent refiners buy oil from Brazil and West Africa. Sentosa Shipbrokers said that the main reason for the September surge was the arbitrage between U.S. Gulf and East Asia flows, as well as the tightness caused by the vessels' commitment to these long-haul journeys. Anoop Singh, global director of shipping research for Oil Brokerage, says Saudi Arabia exports more oil because the demand for burning crude for electricity generation in summer has ceased, while arbitrage opportunities are wide open due to high Dubai crude prices. He said that the short-term forecast is for the momentum in Dubai prices to continue through the end of this year and into the first quarter of next year. The strength could be amplified further if the medium-quality crude supplies, like those from Russia, are reduced due to geopolitical tensions. U.S. president Donald Trump stated on Saturday that he was willing to impose new energy sanctions against Russia, provided all NATO countries stopped purchasing Russian oil.
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Egypt's billboard explosion strains the eyes, but increases profits
Cairo's roads are not for the weak-hearted. They have potholes and obstacles like donkey carts. Now, drivers are faced with a new hazard - a proliferation of mismatched and flashy billboards that compete for their attention. According to AdMazad a media and advertising analytics company, the number of billboards that line Cairo's streets has increased by more than twofold in six years. This is more than 30 ads per square kilometre, and that's without counting the digital flashing ads which have increased more than ten-fold in the past decade to reach more than 300. Ahmed Adel, a resident of Cairo, said that there was no place on the streets without ads as he drove past one of the high-end commercial and residential districts. Advertising is booming in Egypt, largely due to the rapid expansion and modernization of Egypt's transportation network. Since Abdel Fattah al-Sisi took power in 2014, he has invested billions of dollars to build new roads and bridges that now criss-cross Cairo. These ads, which line the roads, promote a variety of products, including detergents, fast foods, and real estate developments. They are often accompanied by bright LED displays, which, according to Adel, strain drivers' eyes at night. Ahmed Afify is the head of MOT Investment and Development (a Transport Ministry investment firm), and he says that this industry has become an important source of revenue for the state. AdMazad's data indicates that revenues from "out of home" advertising (billboards, transit ads and other outdoor media) will grow by over 50% between now and 2024 to reach about 6.3 billion Egyptian Pounds ($130 million). Afify stated that the money is largely transferred to the state's treasury by the Transport Ministry and its affiliate entities. He said that ad prices are affected by the location, and can increase when competing brands compete for prime spots. Those stuck in traffic may find them amusing or a marketing tool. Others find the billboards a stress-inducing addition to their commute. Khaled Salaheldin, a psychotherapist in Egypt, has pointed out the mental toll that people can take when they are under financial stress. This is a reality Egypt is increasingly experiencing after years of inflation. He said: "When I'm constantly exposed to advertisements and idealized lifestyles it leads to comparisons that make me feel inadequate and insecure." Egypt's prime minister Mostafa Mahbouly convened a meeting on Wednesday to discuss standards for ads and billboards. He said there should be stricter regulations to ensure that ads "preserve urban fabric," "uphold societal norms" and "uphold aesthetic value." Reporting by Jaidaa TAHA and Heba FOUAD in Cairo. Editing by Alexander Dziadosz & Andrew Heavens
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French unions strike against austerity, pressuring Macron
Teachers, train driver, pharmacists, and hospital staff all went on strike in France, and teenagers blocked high schools as part of a protest day against budget cuts. The unions want the fiscal plans of the previous government scrapped. They also want more public spending, higher taxes for the wealthy and an end to the unpopular rule that made people work longer for a pension. Many metro lines in Paris were scheduled to be suspended throughout the day, except during morning and afternoon rush hours. Some students gathered at the entrance of some schools to block them. A student raised a placard in front of Lycee Maurice Ravel in Paris, France. The message read: "Block Your High School Against Austerity." Social unrest occurs as President Emmanuel Macron, and newly appointed Sebastien lecornu, face a political crisis in order to control finances and bring the second largest economy of the eurozone under control. Workers Angry Over Fiscal Plans According to a source in the Interior Ministry, 800 000 people are expected to participate in protests and strikes. The main unions in the country said that "the workers we represent are furious" in a statement where they rejected the fiscal plans of the previous government, which were "brutal" as well as "unfair". Lecornu, who relies on other parties for legislation to pass, will have to fight a political battle in order to get a budget approved by the parliament for 2026. Francois Bayrou was Lecornu’s predecessor. He was voted out of office by the parliament for his plan to squeeze the budget by 44 billion euros. Lecornu hasn't yet stated what he plans to do with Bayrou’s plans. However, he has said that he is open to compromises. Sophie Binet, the CGT union's chief after meeting Lecornu in early this week, said: "We will continue mobilising as long as there are no adequate responses." "The budget decision will be made on the streets." PROtests Hit Schools, Trains The FSU-SNUipp trade union reported that one in three primary school educators were on strike. Officials said that the strike had a major impact on regional trains, but the majority of high-speed TGV lines in the country will be operating. Protesters blocked traffic near Toulon, a city in the south-east of France. Data from EDF showed that nuclear production was down by 1.1 gigawatts on Thursday morning, after workers reduced power output at Flamanville 1. Confederation Paysanne, the farmers' union has also called for mobilization. Pharmacists have been angry about changes that affect their businesses. The USPO pharmacists union conducted a survey among pharmacies and found 98% of them could close the next day. Early on Thursday, Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau informed reporters that some blockades had been removed by police in the Paris area. He said that up to 8,000 people could "sow chaos" and fight with the police. He said that 80,000 police officers and gendarmes would be on duty throughout the day. There will also be riot units, drones, and armoured cars. Reporting by Zhifan LIu, Makini BRICE, Dominique Vidalon Mathias de Rozario Juliette Jabkhiro Gus Trompiz Writing and editing by Ingrid Melander
The fear of an Iranian oil calamity in Hormuz is more than just a myth.
Fears of Middle East oil disruption after US strikes on Iran
Iran has attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the past.
US Navy is likely to respond quickly in the event of disruptions
Ron Bousso
LONDON, 22 June - The U.S. strikes against several Iranian nuclear sites are a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict. This could cause Tehran to disrupt essential exports of gas and oil from the region, causing a spike in energy prices. History tells us, however, that any disruption will likely be brief.
Since Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on June 13 investors and energy markets were on high alert, fearing disruption of oil and natural gas flows from the Middle East. This was especially true for the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint that connects Iran with Oman, and through which 20% of global demand for oil and natural gas passes.
Since June 13, Brent crude oil prices have increased by over 10%, to more than $77 per barrel.
Although Israel and Iran have both targeted their respective energy infrastructures, there has not been a significant disruption of maritime activity in the area so far.
The decision of President Donald Trump to bomb three of Iran's nuclear sites early Sunday morning, along with Israel, could change Tehran's calculations. Iran has few options and could respond by attacking U.S. targets in the region or disrupting oil flow.
Although such a move is almost certain to lead to an abrupt spike in energy prices worldwide, the history of the market and its current dynamics suggests that any move will likely be less harmful than investors fear.
Can they do it?
First, we need to know if Iran has the capability of blocking or seriously disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
Answer: Probably yes. Iran could try to place mines in the Strait which measures 34 km wide (21 miles at its narrowest). The Iranian army or paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could also strike or seize ships in the Gulf. This is a tactic they have used in recent years.
Hormuz was never completely blocked but it has been interrupted several times.
During the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, both sides were involved in what was called the "Tanker Wars", which took place in the Gulf. Iraq attacked Iranian ships and Iran attacked commercial vessels, including Saudi, Kuwaiti, and U.S. Navy ships.
Ronald Reagan, the then-President of the United States, deployed his navy in 1987 and 1988 after Kuwait appealed to him. This was called Operation Earnest Will. The operation ended shortly after an American navy ship shot down Air Iran Flight 655 killing all 290 of its passengers.
At the end of 2007, tensions in the Strait erupted again in a series skirmishes involving the Iranian and U.S. Navy. One incident involved Iranian speedboats approaching U.S. battleships. No shots were fired. In the Gulf of Oman, Iranian troops captured the Advantage Sweet crude oil tanker chartered by Chevron in April 2023. The vessel was freed more than a full year later.
The U.S. Navy would respond to any Iranian attempt at disrupting maritime traffic in the Gulf with a swift, forceful response, thus limiting the possibility of a long-lasting supply shock.
HISTORY LESSON
History has shown that major disruptions in global oil supply have been short-lived.
Brent crude doubled to $40 per barrel in mid-October 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait. By January 1991, prices had returned to pre-invasion levels after a U.S. led coalition launched Operation Desert Storm. Kuwait was liberated the following month.
Even less impactful was the start of the second Gulf War between March and may 2003. The 46% rise in stock prices between November 2002 to March 2003, which was the period leading up to the war, was reversed quickly in the days before the U.S. led military campaign.
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, causing oil prices to spike to $130 per barrel. However, prices fell back to $95 in mid-August, their levels before the invasion.
The rapid rise in oil prices curbed the demand at the time, and this was a major factor for the relatively quick turnaround of the oil price spikes, according to Tamas Varga an analyst with oil brokerage PVM.
The global oil market was also shook by the Arab embargo of 1973 and the Iranian revolution of 1979, when attacks on oilfields in the country severely disrupted the production. These attacks did not include the blockade of Hormuz, and they were not met by a direct military response from the United States.
There is certainly spare capacity on the current global oil markets. OPEC+ is an alliance of oil producing nations that holds around 5.7 millions barrels of excess capacity per day. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have 4.2 million bpd.
Today, the Strait of Hormuz is the main route through which oil is transported from Saudi Arabia and UAE.
However, the two Gulf countries could bypass this strait via oil pipelines. Saudi Arabia is the top oil exporter in the world, with around 9 million barrels per day. It has a crude oil pipeline that runs between the Abqaiq Oilfield in the Gulf Coast in the east and the Red Sea port of Yanbu in west. The pipeline can handle 5 million barrels per day and has been temporarily expanded by 2 million barrels per day in 2019.
The UAE produced 3.3 millions bpd of oil in April. A 1.5 million bpd oil pipeline links its oilfields on the coast to the Fujairah terminal, east of the Strait of Hormuz.
This western route is also vulnerable to the attacks of the Houthis, who are backed by Iran and have disrupted the Suez Canal shipping in recent years. Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have no other alternative to the Suez Canal.
Iran may decide not to block the Strait, in part, because it would disrupt its oil exports. Tehran may also see any further escalation as futile in light of U.S. intervention and instead downplay the importance and return to nuclear negotiations.
Fearing a further escalation of the situation, the energy markets are likely to react to the U.S. strike with a dramatic increase in crude oil prices. Even in the worst-case scenario, where the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, historical evidence suggests that markets shouldn't expect a persistent supply shock.
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(source: Reuters)