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FAA delays flights as shutdown enters Day 31
Federal Aviation Administration delayed flights on Friday at airports in Austin and Newark, as staffing issues continue to cause delays and the government shutdown enters its 31st week. The FAA reported that there were staffing problems at nine FAA facilities on Friday, and said this was likely to cause delays in flights later for Houston and Dallas airports. Flight delays averaged 61 minutes in Nashville, 50 minutes in Austin and 101 minutes in Newark. FlightAware, a tracking website for aviation, reported that 2,200 U.S. flight delays and 300 cancellations had occurred as of 12:25 p.m. ET. On Thursday, there were 1,250 canceled flights and 7,300 flight delays in the United States. Sean Duffy, the U.S. Transportation secretary, said that he expected more flight delays to occur in the next few days. Duffy told Fox News' America's Newsroom that there would be more disruptions to the airspace this weekend, and the following week. Staffing shortages in air traffic control caused delays on Thursday at Orlando, Dallas/Fort Worth, and Washington, D.C. The shutdown forced 13,000 air-traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration (TSA) officers to work for free. Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, Southwest Airlines, and American Airlines have all called for Congress to pass a temporary funding bill so that the government can reopen, and to continue discussions on healthcare policy disagreements. Transportation Department officials said that the shutdown caused flight delays because of air traffic controllers' absences. The airlines have repeatedly called for an end to this shutdown, citing safety concerns. The shutdown has worsened existing staffing shortages and threatens to cause widespread disruptions. Even before the shutdown, many air traffic controllers were working six-day weekends and mandatory overtime. (Reporting and editing by Andrea Ricci; David Shepardson)
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Staff of the Border Force patrolling UK waters are planning a strike over pay
The union that represents British Border Force employees announced on Friday, more than 120 staff members who patrol Britain's waterways in "sometimes harrowing" roles plan to go on strike on November 14, to protest pay and working conditions. Most of the UK Border Force's 10,000 staff members work in ports and airports across the UK and abroad. The website of the agency does not provide a breakdown showing how many people are employed to patrol the waters in the UK. The union representing Britain's Public and Commercial Services said that the government started a review of the issue six years ago, addressing the need for standardisation in pay and roles. However, despite long discussions the concerns of the members have not been addressed. The UK interior ministry didn't immediately respond to an inquiry about the planned stoppage of one day or the status on the review. The union stated that workers are involved in dangerous tasks such as patrolling for illegal entry or smuggling into the UK and boarding vessels to inspect them, responding to incidents including small boats with asylum seekers, and boarding vessels for inspection. The Labour Party of British Prime Minister Keir starmer, which is trailing in the polls, has promised to crush the gangs that traffic migrants into Britain via small boats. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, a populist party with a strong political agenda has also made illegal immigration a key issue. In a statement, PCS General Secretary Fran Heathcote stated that "this strike sends a message clear to the Home Office": We will not accept further delays or inadequate proposals. Heathcote said, "We are prepared to escalate the situation if needed." (Reporting and editing by Muvija m; Alexander Smith).
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Buffett will send a letter to his children and shareholders as well as Abel's annual letter, according to WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Buffett's assistant said Warren Buffett would release a letter on November 10 to his children and Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders. Greg Abel, who will become Berkshire Hathaway's chief executive in February, will write Berkshire Hathaway's annual shareholder's letter. Buffett will step down from his role as chief executive officer at the end this year. He will, however, remain chairman. Abel is a vice chairman of Berkshire but has taken on additional responsibilities since Buffett announced a management change during Berkshire’s annual meeting held May 3. Buffett plans to join other directors in the audience, and not on stage, for next year's meeting. Berkshire has not responded to any requests for comment since Friday. The Omaha-based conglomerate, which will announce its third-quarter results this Saturday. Buffett's letter of November 10, to his children Susie and Howard, and to shareholders is not clear. Buffett sent letters to his family in November 2023, and again in November 2024. In these letters he discussed estate planning. He also expressed gratitude for the opportunities that the U.S. offers. He announced four donations to family charities. Howard Buffett will eventually become the non-executive Chairman of Berkshire. New York Newsroom reported the story.
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Portugal announces that the sale of TAP Airlines has cross-party support
The government of Portugal expects that the partial privatisation process for flag carrier TAP will proceed smoothly. This is due to a rare political consensus across parties and interest shown by Europe's biggest airlines, Infrastructure Minister Miguel Pinto Luz stated on Friday. He stated that the centre-right minority government initially wanted to offer 100% of TAP but settled for 49.9% when the two major opposition parties threatened to stop any larger sale. This led to a “broad consensus” in parliament with the extreme right Chega and Socialist parties. He told a committee of parliament that "dialogue and mutual respect is always the best way for politics." To ensure transparency, the sale of the property will be reviewed and monitored by an independent commission as well as a working group within the parliament. Portugal has relaunched its long-delayed TAP privatisation in July. The aim is to sell a stake of 44.9% to a carrier that can bring global scale and competition, plus an additional 5% for TAP staff. Airlines interested in TAP are required to submit a formal "manifestation" of interest by November 21, and non-binding bids by the end the year. Lufthansa and Air France-KLM have expressed interest in purchasing TAP. British Airways and IAG, the owner of British Airways, also met with the government last year.
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KLM signs two-year contract with unions of ground staff
Dutch airline KLM announced on Friday it had reached a deal with five unions that represent ground staff in The Netherlands for a two-year agreement that included pay increases, bonuses and improved retirement options. The Collective Labor Agreement (CLA), which is retroactive to March 1, this year and ends on February 28, 2027, will be in effect. This includes a salary increase of 3.25 percent in total as well as a one-time payment of 500 euros ($583) net in December 2025, and 250 euros in January 2026. KLM has also agreed to permanentize the 80-90-100% scheme, which allows older workers to work 90% of their working hours and still accrue full pension. "We are happy that we reached an agreement with all five unions. We have reached solid agreements with KLM on remunerations, career development and productivity. The agreement came amid ongoing labor unrest in KLM. Two major unions, FNV and CNV, had rejected the September deal with other unions and continued to organize strikes.
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Tanzania opposition claims hundreds of deaths in protests against voting
Tanzania's main Opposition Party said that hundreds of people were killed this week in protests against elections throughout the country, while the government claimed it was restoring the order following "isolated" incidents. The United Nations has confirmed credible reports that at least ten people have been killed in protests across three cities. This is the first estimate of fatalities made public by any international body since the vote on Wednesday. The government hasn't responded to any requests for comment or released any estimates of casualties. Could not independently verify these figures. Since Wednesday, protesters have been taking to the streets in anger over the exclusion of the two main challengers to President Samia Hassan from the race. They also criticized what they called widespread repression. Police have been accused of using tear gas and firearms to disperse some protests, according to witnesses. The police have imposed a curfew overnight in Dar es Salaam's commercial capital over the last two nights, after burning down government offices and other structures. Since Wednesday, internet access has been interrupted. HIGH SECURITY PRESENCE On Friday, the military and police patrolled Dar es Salaam's streets to prevent people from moving without a valid excuse. The government has extended the order for civil servants to work from home. John Kitoka, a spokesperson of the CHADEMA Party which was banned from the elections for refusing to adhere to a code and whose leader was arrested in April for treason, said that the party has documented 700 deaths based on the accounts of health workers. He said that protests were still ongoing in several cities on Friday, but they had diminished in others due to heavy security deployment. He said: "We want the protests continue until we get our electoral reforms." Hassan faces a challenge in the unrest. He was praised for his easing of repression after taking office 2021, but has faced criticism more recently from opposition parties and activists following a series arrests and allegations of abductions. Hassan denies allegations of widespread human rights abuses. She claimed that she ordered an investigation last year into reports of abductions. However, no official findings were released. Thursday, the electoral commission announced provisional results of the election. Hassan won a majority in several constituencies. GOVERNMENT : "NORMALICY WILL RETURN" The first direct comments from her government on the unrest were made on Friday by the Foreign Affairs Ministry in a broadcasted message to diplomatic missions on state television. In the message, it was stated that "due to isolated incidents where law and order were violated, the government has increased security and taken other precautionary steps." The statement added that the security measures are temporary, but necessary. Normalcy is expected to return soon. Seif Magango, spokesperson for the U.N. Human rights office, told reporters in Geneva that there are credible reports of 10 deaths in Dar es Salaam and Shinyanga. He urged the protesters to remain peaceful and called for security forces to "refrain from excessive or unnecessary force". A Dar es Salaam local, who requested anonymity for safety, said that a family had lost a member when a protester was mistakenly shot outside a hospital. No one from the police department responded to our requests for comment. In a joint statement released on Thursday, two members of the European Parliament’s foreign affairs committee called the election a fraud, saying that it "took place in an atmosphere of intimidation and fear". The article was written by Vincent Mumo Nzilani, George Obulutsa and edited by Aaron Ross. Ros Russell and Andrew Heavens.
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ITA Airways will resume flights from and to Tel Aviv on January 1, 2019.
Italy's ITA Airways has announced that it will resume direct flights to Tel Aviv on January 1. This will restore connections with Rome's Fiumicino airport, the main airport. According to the statement, the company, which is part of the Lufthansa Group, will operate at first two daily routes between Tel Aviv and the rest of Europe. The route is "of strategic importance to ITA Airways, and it represents a significant move for Italy. It further strengthens the commercial, cultural, and social ties between Italy and the United States." Hamas has reached a fragile truce with Israel this month, brokered by U.S. president Donald Trump. The deal is being tested periodically by violent outbreaks, as part of the conflict that was sparked by the October 7, 2020 attack by the militants group. As a result, several airlines have suspended flights in the past two years.
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Asia spot prices stable on ample stocks and tepid Demand
The Asian spot price of liquefied gas held steady in this week's market, despite a tepid global demand and healthy stocks. Average LNG price for delivery to North-east Asia in December Industry sources estimate that the price per million British Thermal Units (mmBtu) was $11.10, a slight drop from $11.20/mmBtu in the previous week. Arturo Regalado is Kpler's senior LNG analyst. He said that while Asian LNG prices were supported by higher European prices last week, this week's gains were limited by weaker Asian fundamentals. He said that he expects Asian LNG prices to remain stable next week due to the fact that weaker industrial gas demand and lower gas-fired usage in China combined with higher than average Japanese LNG inventories for December will cap any upside. The data from the Ministry of Industry shows that the LNG stocks of the major Japanese electric utilities increased to 1.97 million tonnes for the week ending October 26 compared with 1.84 million tons in October last year. Martin Senior, Argus' head of LNG prices, added that supply expectations were also confirmed this week by the cooling-down cargo declaration at the Golden Pass U.S. export terminal and Shell's announcement of the impending start of the second LNG Canada train. In Europe, S&P Global Commodity Insights estimated its daily Northwest Europe LNG Marker for cargoes to be delivered in December ex-ship at $10.126/mmBtu. This is a $0.53/mmBtu reduction from the December price at Dutch TTF hub. Spark Commodities estimated the November price to be $9.907/mmBtu. Regalado said that the abundance of LNG and pipeline supply helped to keep prices down, while the warmer weather and increased wind output also kept gas-fired generators in check. Last week, hedge funds and institutional investors began selling TTF futures, reinforcing that the bullish sentiment in the EU Gas market has collapsed, according to independent gas analyst Seb Knastle. The U.S. arbitrage for the front month to Northeast Asia via Cape of Good Hope has now been closed, and is marginally pointing towards Europe rather than Asia. However, the arbitrage through Panama remains open, according to Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghanistan. He added that LNG freight rates have risen to $61,250/day in the Atlantic, and to $41,250/day in Pacific. Harikrishnan Nair, Harikrishnan Chow and Emily Chow contributed to this report.
The fear of an Iranian oil calamity in Hormuz is more than just a myth.
Fears of Middle East oil disruption after US strikes on Iran
Iran has attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz in the past.
US Navy is likely to respond quickly in the event of disruptions
Ron Bousso
LONDON, 22 June - The U.S. strikes against several Iranian nuclear sites are a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict. This could cause Tehran to disrupt essential exports of gas and oil from the region, causing a spike in energy prices. History tells us, however, that any disruption will likely be brief.
Since Israel launched surprise airstrikes on Iran on June 13 investors and energy markets were on high alert, fearing disruption of oil and natural gas flows from the Middle East. This was especially true for the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint that connects Iran with Oman, and through which 20% of global demand for oil and natural gas passes.
Since June 13, Brent crude oil prices have increased by over 10%, to more than $77 per barrel.
Although Israel and Iran have both targeted their respective energy infrastructures, there has not been a significant disruption of maritime activity in the area so far.
The decision of President Donald Trump to bomb three of Iran's nuclear sites early Sunday morning, along with Israel, could change Tehran's calculations. Iran has few options and could respond by attacking U.S. targets in the region or disrupting oil flow.
Although such a move is almost certain to lead to an abrupt spike in energy prices worldwide, the history of the market and its current dynamics suggests that any move will likely be less harmful than investors fear.
Can they do it?
First, we need to know if Iran has the capability of blocking or seriously disrupting the Strait of Hormuz.
Answer: Probably yes. Iran could try to place mines in the Strait which measures 34 km wide (21 miles at its narrowest). The Iranian army or paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could also strike or seize ships in the Gulf. This is a tactic they have used in recent years.
Hormuz was never completely blocked but it has been interrupted several times.
During the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, both sides were involved in what was called the "Tanker Wars", which took place in the Gulf. Iraq attacked Iranian ships and Iran attacked commercial vessels, including Saudi, Kuwaiti, and U.S. Navy ships.
Ronald Reagan, the then-President of the United States, deployed his navy in 1987 and 1988 after Kuwait appealed to him. This was called Operation Earnest Will. The operation ended shortly after an American navy ship shot down Air Iran Flight 655 killing all 290 of its passengers.
At the end of 2007, tensions in the Strait erupted again in a series skirmishes involving the Iranian and U.S. Navy. One incident involved Iranian speedboats approaching U.S. battleships. No shots were fired. In the Gulf of Oman, Iranian troops captured the Advantage Sweet crude oil tanker chartered by Chevron in April 2023. The vessel was freed more than a full year later.
The U.S. Navy would respond to any Iranian attempt at disrupting maritime traffic in the Gulf with a swift, forceful response, thus limiting the possibility of a long-lasting supply shock.
HISTORY LESSON
History has shown that major disruptions in global oil supply have been short-lived.
Brent crude doubled to $40 per barrel in mid-October 1990 after Iraq invaded Kuwait. By January 1991, prices had returned to pre-invasion levels after a U.S. led coalition launched Operation Desert Storm. Kuwait was liberated the following month.
Even less impactful was the start of the second Gulf War between March and may 2003. The 46% rise in stock prices between November 2002 to March 2003, which was the period leading up to the war, was reversed quickly in the days before the U.S. led military campaign.
In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, causing oil prices to spike to $130 per barrel. However, prices fell back to $95 in mid-August, their levels before the invasion.
The rapid rise in oil prices curbed the demand at the time, and this was a major factor for the relatively quick turnaround of the oil price spikes, according to Tamas Varga an analyst with oil brokerage PVM.
The global oil market was also shook by the Arab embargo of 1973 and the Iranian revolution of 1979, when attacks on oilfields in the country severely disrupted the production. These attacks did not include the blockade of Hormuz, and they were not met by a direct military response from the United States.
There is certainly spare capacity on the current global oil markets. OPEC+ is an alliance of oil producing nations that holds around 5.7 millions barrels of excess capacity per day. Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have 4.2 million bpd.
Today, the Strait of Hormuz is the main route through which oil is transported from Saudi Arabia and UAE.
However, the two Gulf countries could bypass this strait via oil pipelines. Saudi Arabia is the top oil exporter in the world, with around 9 million barrels per day. It has a crude oil pipeline that runs between the Abqaiq Oilfield in the Gulf Coast in the east and the Red Sea port of Yanbu in west. The pipeline can handle 5 million barrels per day and has been temporarily expanded by 2 million barrels per day in 2019.
The UAE produced 3.3 millions bpd of oil in April. A 1.5 million bpd oil pipeline links its oilfields on the coast to the Fujairah terminal, east of the Strait of Hormuz.
This western route is also vulnerable to the attacks of the Houthis, who are backed by Iran and have disrupted the Suez Canal shipping in recent years. Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have no other alternative to the Suez Canal.
Iran may decide not to block the Strait, in part, because it would disrupt its oil exports. Tehran may also see any further escalation as futile in light of U.S. intervention and instead downplay the importance and return to nuclear negotiations.
Fearing a further escalation of the situation, the energy markets are likely to react to the U.S. strike with a dramatic increase in crude oil prices. Even in the worst-case scenario, where the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, historical evidence suggests that markets shouldn't expect a persistent supply shock.
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(source: Reuters)