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Bousso: Trump tariffs cause much-needed petrochemicals reduction

The trade wars of U.S. president Donald Trump are pushing the global plastics sector toward a painful, but necessary restructuring in order to deal with the acute overcapacity which has caused the industry's profit to be in a long-term slump.

In the next few decades, demand for plastics will increase dramatically as middle class populations grow in major economies. This is especially true in Asia. This will increase oil demand.

The consumption of petrochemical products - such as naphtha and propane - was responsible for 95% percent of the total growth in oil demand between 2019 and 2024. According to the International Energy Agency, it is expected that between 2024 and 30 these plastic building blocks will increase by 2.1 millions barrels per day, or 18.4 million bpd.

This growth will offset the decline in demand for transportation oil.

Exxon Mobil and Saudi Aramco, as well as Adnoc in the UAE, have all invested heavily in the petrochemical industry, betting on the rising demand for feedstocks to counterbalance the effect of electric vehicles.

China has also increased its domestic production in order to increase petrochemical independence. The shale gas boom in the U.S. has led to a rise in ethane and petrochemical production.

GROWING PAINS

Since 2022, the rapid growth of petrochemicals has led to a serious imbalance between supply-demand. This puts heavy pressure on margins. The benchmark Chinese PDH margins (also known as cracks) have been negative for the majority of the last two years. In recent months, benchmark naphtha margins in Asia and Europe have also fallen.

Chemical producers have seen their earnings plummet.

In 2024, the South Korean petrochemical companies LG Chem and Lotte Chemical reported losses. Dow Inc., a U.S. petrochemical company, cut its dividend in the last month following a loss for the second quarter. Dow and BASF, its German competitor, both lowered their full-year forecasts citing increased pressure from global trade conflicts.

Petrochemical overcapacity will likely worsen, which is bad news for the industry. According to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, new plants are expected to increase supply by 20-25% in 2030.

Shortly, the industry needs to be tightened.

Not a Crisis to Waste

Trump's tariff could do that.

Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs against imports of South Korean petrochemicals, one of the country's top five export industries and the foundation of its electronics and car industries on April 2 was a major blow to the industry.

ING stated in a report that even though the tariffs were delayed, and then reduced to 15%, first-half revenues from South Korean petrochemicals exports to America still dropped by more than a 5th year on year.

The South Korean Government, which has been urging the sector to restructure for a long time, responded by forcing 10 companies to reduce their annual naphtha cracking capacity by 2.7-3.7 million metric tonnes, or roughly a quarter the country's capacity of 14.7 millions tons.

The petrochemicals industry in Europe has suffered from high energy prices since the energy crisis of 2022, which led to the closure of plants in France, Germany, and Britain. Dow announced in July that it would close three sites in Germany, the UK and France.

Trade wars have weakened demand, which puts more pressure on plants.

China, as part of a "anti-involution campaign" - a catchphrase for curbing destructive, profit-eroding competition - is said to be considering reorganizing its chemical sector. This includes closing down ageing plants that are losing money.

Cleaning up China's petrochemical sector will likely face opposition from local officials, and new capacity additions will dwarf it. But any reduction in the industry would be a welcome relief to the global markets.

Long Path

Rapid expansion of petrochemical capacities, particularly in China, have far outpaced the growth of demand, creating one the worst crises of the sector's recent history. It will take a while to shrink this over-inflated sector and boost profits.

Shell CEO Wael Sawan stated last month that the "incredibly deep" trough could continue for some time in the chemicals industry.

While Trump's trade policy may seem like another blow to the industry, it could be the wake-up cry the petrochemicals sector needs.

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(source: Reuters)