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Bousso: The rally for diesel fuel in response to Western sanctions against Russia will not last long.

New sanctions by the West on Russia's oil sector have roiled diesel markets, sending margins for refining to new heights. However, global supplies will not be disrupted severely for very long.

Last week, Donald Trump sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil firms, Rosneft, and Lukoil. This followed a similar action by Britain. Trump has taken his first punitive steps against Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine on a large scale in 2022.

Russia has been the third largest crude oil exporter in the world and the second biggest diesel exporter. It has shipped over 800,000 barrels of transport fuel per day so far this season, which is around 3% global demand.

The U.S. actions are exacerbating the turmoil on the diesel market caused by the European Union adopting a new package of sanctions earlier this month that included a ban of imports of fuels made from Russian crude. This ban, which will take effect in January 2026 closes a loophole primarily benefiting refiners from India and Turkey.

The EU and U.S. sanctioning regimes are forcing traders, especially in Europe, which is the largest diesel-importing area, to scramble for alternative supply sources.

According to LSEG, as a result of this, the profit margins on the conversion of crude oil to diesel have risen by almost 20% in the last week, to $29 a barrel, the highest level since February 2024.

If the recent past is any indication, then this price surge is not likely to last.

Rebranding and rerouting

According to Kpler, shipping analytics company, Rosneft has exported 182,000 bpd, and Lukoil 138,000 bpd, of diesel on average this year. This represents 39% of the total Russian exports.

Turkey is the biggest buyer of Russian diesel. It accounts for 36%, and Brazil, 18%, of its seaborne imports.

Many local importers who are not exposed to U.S. financial institutions, such as large companies in Turkey and Brazil, will continue to purchase Russian diesel.

China, with its well-established network of traders, tankers and other means to avoid Western sanctions, is likely to absorb some of the surplus diesel produced by Rosneft or Lukoil. This excess diesel will be sold at significant discounts to international prices.

The remaining Russian diesel is likely to find its way onto the shadow market, where it will either be blended with other diesels or rebranded.

Refiners all over the world will respond quickly to the rise in diesel prices, by adjusting their operations to maximize the diesel output. For example, they may use different crude feedstocks to further mitigate any supply concerns.

INDIAN REFINING OFF RUSSIAN DIABETES

India will still be heavily impacted by the U.S.-EU restrictions, as it is a top buyer of Russian crude oil and a major diesel exporter to Europe. The bloc has stopped importing Russian Diesel since 2023.

According to Kpler, India exported 583,000 barrels per day of diesel this year. This represents around 8% global seaborne volumes. Of these, 106,000 barrels per day went to Europe. India is now the fourth largest source of diesel in the world. Indian refineries are responding to Western sanctions by replacing Urals crude with Indian Urals crude which has high diesel yields.

The refiners will be more inclined to seek out alternative crudes with similar diesel yields. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates are the main producers of these medium-sour grades. All of them have increased their production dramatically this year and offer a wide range of alternatives to Russian crude.

The increased competition for the medium-sour grades is likely to lead to higher prices, but refineries are able to maintain their current output levels due to the availability of the product. Reliance Industries in India, the largest refinery complex, operates in Gujarat, a western state of India. It has stated that it will comply to all western sanctions but has no plans to cut production.

Reliance exports three-quarters (75%) of India's Diesel, so the majority of Indian sales in Europe will remain stable next year. However, they could be at a higher cost.

Not all Indian companies are as flexible. Nayara Energy, which is 49% owned and solely dependent on Russian crude by Rosneft, is another major Indian refiner. Sources say that it is forced to drastically reduce its production in response to the sanctions.

Kpler reports that Indian refiners collectively increased exports to 748,000 barrels per day in September, the highest level since March 2022 and immediately after Russia's invasion.

The European traders are stocking up Indian diesel ahead of the EU sanctions that will kick in in January next year. They have more than doubled their purchases from the two previous months, to 317,000 bpd in September.

But they may not have to worry. Prices spikes on the diesel market will likely be short-lived. This is bad news for global refining companies, but good for European consumers. Want my weekly column, plus links to the latest stories and energy insights delivered to your inbox each Monday and Thursday? Subscribe to my Power Up Newsletter here. You like this column? Open Interest (ROI) is your new essential source of global financial commentary. ROI provides data-driven, thought-provoking analysis. The markets are changing faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn, X.

(source: Reuters)