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When the US freezes the global LNG market gets a cold. Bousso

A fear of disruptions in production has led to a surge in the price of natural gas. This spike in prices has been felt on overseas markets and highlights the "growing globalization" of the U.S. dominated liquefied gas trade. U.S. Natural Gas Futures are at their highest level since December 2022, up almost 70% in the last week. According to LSEG, the cold snap is expected to boost domestic gas demand to 156 billion cubic feet?per -day (bcfd) this week. This compares to a five year average of 137 bcfd in January. Drillers in areas such as the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico are forced to reduce output because of "freeze-offs," which occur when liquids and water in the gas stream freeze. As temperatures continue to drop, the trend is likely to intensify. LSEG data show that the average gas production in the U.S. is already down to 108.4 bcfd, from a record 109.7 bcfd during December. This was partly due to cold weather. A tighter U.S. gas supply could lead to a reduction in LNG exports as liquefaction facilities receive less feedgas. In recent years, severe cold has affected oil and gas production several times. According to U.S. Energy Information Administration statistics, a 10-day cold period in January 2024 resulted in a 3% decrease in the average monthly dry gas production. Winter Storm Uri, which hit in February of 2021, caused a 20% drop in the gas output compared to pre-storm levels. According to Kpler, LNG feedgas dropped by up to 75% during this storm. This led to a drop of 30% in February LNG exports. During each of the past Arctic blasts in which we have been involved, production has generally recovered within a few months. Since Uri, however, the U.S. liquefaction capability has almost doubled, making it the top LNG exporter in the world. A disruption today would create a larger shortfall.

Global?knock-on effect What has changed is that cold weather in the U.S. now can lead to higher gas price in Asia and Europe, who is heavily dependent on U.S. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia cut off pipeline flow. Since 2023, the U.S. dominates the LNG market. In 2025, it will be the first nation to export more than 100 million metric tonnes per year. Kpler, a data analytics company, estimates that two-thirds were delivered to Europe. The benchmark European TTF gas price rose over 6% to nearly 40 euros per megawatt-hour, or $13.75 for each mmBtu. This is the highest level since June 2025. Prices have risen 38% this month due to a rapid depletion in regional gas supplies, which is currently at 48% capacity. This is far below the level of last year, when it was around 58%. The International Energy Agency announced on Friday that Europe will import a record amount LNG this year.

The surge in new LNG supply is expected to maintain prices at a relatively low level for the next few years. According to the IEA, between 2025 and 2030 the?new LNG capacity will grow by about 50% or 300 billion cubic metres (bcm), per year, globally. This growth is mainly driven by the U.S.

INTERCONNECTED MALL

The global impact of sudden changes in demand or supply in major LNG producing areas due to weather or power outages is more severe than ever before.

Climate change will likely make extreme weather events more frequent.

Mashal Jaffery is a partner with Baringa, a gas and LNG commercial consultancy. He said that the global gas market had become more interconnected. Markets such as the?TTF or (U.S. Henry Hub) are structurally more volatile, and exposed to geopolitical and supply-demand dynamics that originate outside of their region. The global gas market, of course, has adapted. The global gas market has adapted. This allows the market to respond quickly to spikes in demand and smooth out volatility.

The gas market, which was once dominated by regional players, is now beginning to resemble the modern, liquid oil markets.

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(source: Reuters)